146
FXUS64 KSHV 061523
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1023 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1015 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Sfc ridging has all but dissipated ahead of our cold front which
is currently moving through Northern Oklahoma and Southern
Missouri, about to enter extreme Northwest Arkansas. Cloudless
skies currently apparent on Visible Satellite Imagery but low
level moisture is present and will result in a descent cu field
with the aid of further daytime heating. Hourly forecast
temperatures are in the ballpark, running a little above
temperatures from 24 hours ago and the max temp forecast today has
a good handle on this. Look for northeast winds today with speeds
near 10kts or less.

The only update was to remove patchy fog morning wording to the
ZFP. No other changes are necessary to the current forecast
attm...13.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Fair skies with a few cu around 5-7kft over E TX, but overall a
much Sunnier day lies ahead. Current readings are falling through
a large range of 60s. From 61 at Atlanta and 62 for DeQueen, cool
enough for some patchy dense fog near a mile or two. And we see
numbers as warm as 69 on the edges at Tyler and Monroe. It is
still 70 and KSHV and Lufkin takes honors with 71 last hour.
Not much wind anywhere right now with mostly calm indicated. Two
sticks are showing E/NE at 5 mph at Texarkana and Idabel, and we
will see the NE lingering on our 88D VAD wind profiler 10KTS at
1kft.

Winds aloft are light and veer to SE by 2kft with a layer of
easterlies still trying to inject some tropical pwat, but still
holding around an inch is all on our 06Z sounding. Yep 4 launches
a day as we watch the Gulf. Meanwhile, the upper ridge is parked
over the Baja and desert SW U.S. at 592dam with it`s 588 contour
over E TX, and wrapping way down into the Bay of Campeche at
583dam; which is of course Tropical Storm Milton. So strange to
see a cyclone in a pseudo-westerlies trough. Reading the NHC 1am
Advisory, it looks like Milton could reach Hurricane strength
before midnight and then continue to intensify in the short and
early long term period with a landfall on the FL west coast just
below Tampa Bay.

Lots of coastal erosion in the wake of Helene and now this new
threat is looming large for more and lots of wind over the FL
peninsula. Otherwise for us, the surface ridge approaching will
usher down more low to mid 90s into play today for one last time
with some compressional heating. Then, mid to upper 80s and lower
90s to start the new work week. Morning lows will drop off a
little in the short term as NE low level winds refocus the drier
air back into play. Keep in mind our threat for not good fire
weather will be the only reign we see with some wind speed and
low min RHs each afternoon. Please plan ahead and check for burn
bans in your area over the course of the week ahead, fortunately
not much in the fallen leaf department just yet, but grasses are
browning and can spread trouble quickly in this environment. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

And as the long term picture unfolds for us, we will see more and
more that sweet Canadian high pressure plunge southward as Milton
leafs (baroclinically) out over the SE U.S. with a midweek
landfall. So for us the dry weather and worsening drought
conditions will continue, but on the cooler side for a nice change.
This fresh high pressure, along with the season decline in
daylight hours will keep the 90s out of play, perhaps until
Spring. We will be looking at average temps with low to mid 80s
highs for a nice long spell, with morning lows headed for the 50s
on that same consistent basis as we get a little more Fall feel
down into the Four-State area. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

For the 06/12Z TAF period, other than some brief patchy fog at
LFK this morning, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through
the period with just some spotty cumulus cloud cover. Otherwise,
look for mostly SKC conditions with light to near calm winds this
morning increasing between 5-10 kts from the NE today. Winds will
drop off to less than 5 kts by 07/00Z as a cold front begins to
advance into our northern terminals very late in the TAF period.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  67  90  58 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  93  65  88  55 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  92  62  86  52 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  93  64  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  93  62  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  93  65  92  59 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  93  64  90  57 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  91  67  91  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...19