695
FXUS64 KSHV 041146
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
646 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

 - Can`t rule out some isolated to scattered convection today
   across far Southeast Oklahoma into Northeast Texas.

 - Temperatures will continue on a slow moderation trend as we go
   through the upcoming work week.

 - With those moderating temperatures will be moderating moisture
   as well with small rain chances across the southeast half of
   our region each afternoon beginning Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Interesting upper level pattern across the Southern Plains and
Lower Miss Valley attm. A pattern that should warrant good rain
chances across our region given the placement of a longwave trough
across our region with upper ridging having pulled back across the
Four Corners Region of the Country. The one key ingredient that is
missing is moisture as the frontal boundary which pushed through
our region Friday of last week has conveniently carved out a
wedge of much drier air that will reside across the eastern
2/3rds of our region today. Where slightly higher moisture does
exist in the form of higher PWATS is across S OK and N TX and
upstream forcing from the longwave trough axis should interact
with daytime heating to produce isolated to scattered
thunderstorms across S OK and N TX, some of which may bleed over
into our far western zones. NBM has a good handle on pop placement
today but did adjust this slightly.

By Tuesday, this trough axis shifts slowly eastward with the tail
end of weak upper forcing located across our far eastern zones
and this is where small diurnally driven pops are warranted. This
trend appears to continue through much of the upcoming work week
as the upper trough axis appears to become cutoff from the
westerlies with the weakness perhaps even retrograding slightly to
the west across more of our region through the middle and later
half of the work week. NBM has responded accordingly with
gradually increasing small pops across our southern and eastern
zones mainly through the upcoming work week as well.

Concerning temperatures, a slow moderating trend is what the NBM
is portraying through the work week and this seems valid with a
slow increasing of low level moisture as well. The end result will
be widespread middle 90s to near 100 degree temperatures in a few
locations as early as Wed of this week with more widespread
triple digit heat indices also possible by mid to late week as
well.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

For the 04/12Z TAF period, VFR conditions prevail with increasing
cirrus and mid-level altocu expanding eastward into our airspace
from upstream convection. Otherwise, look for another modest cu
field to develop by later this morning toward midday along with
more cirrus spilling SE from the upstream convection. Isolated to
scattered convection approaching the KTYR terminal warrants VCTS
and will amend accordingly for TSRA. Light and variable winds this
morning will gradually veer more E/SE around 5 kts later in the
period before diminishing once again after 05/00Z with mostly SKC
overnight.

/19/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Spotter activation should not be needed for days to come.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  73  96  75 /  10  10  10   0
MLU  92  71  94  72 /   0   0  20   0
DEQ  90  68  93  69 /  10  10   0   0
TXK  93  71  95  73 /  10  10   0   0
ELD  92  67  93  70 /   0   0  10   0
TYR  91  72  94  73 /  30  20  10   0
GGG  92  71  94  73 /  20  20  10   0
LFK  94  72  96  73 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...19