656
FXUS64 KSHV 200534
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1234 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

 - Heat headlines remain in place through Wednesday, with heat
   index values above 105 degrees expected.

 - An approaching cold front will provide temporary relief
   through the end of the week, but will increase storm chances in
   the immediate short term.

 - Though hot temperatures are expected to return for the
   weekend, drier air will suppress dangerous heat index values.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Temperatures remain warm across the region tonight as local
observations suggests many to still be in the mid and upper 80`s.
At midnight, the Shreveport Regional Airport observation site
reported a present temperature of 87 deg F. This is around 5 deg F
warmer when compared to last night at this time. Convection
continues across the local area as decaying thunderstorms are
present across the eastern third, originating from a thunderstorm
cluster in western Mississippi. To the north, showers and
thunderstorms are continuing to fire along a residual boundary
just north of McCurtain County, Oklahoma. Expectation is for much
of this continue to decay through the overnight, though a stray
storm or two may linger into the early Wednesday AM hours.

Wednesday should start on the quiet side, though temperatures
will quickly rebound ahead of the southward advancing cold front.
Ahead of the boundary and before the initiation of a combination
of diurnally driven and frontal forcing supported convection,
highs will easily climb through the mid and upper 90`s. Once
again, expect for heat index values to range between 105 and 109
deg F, with the chance for a brief instance of 110 deg F or
higher. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the entire forecast
area through 7 PM CDT. The good news in all of this is that while
the advisory is expected to last through the early evening, some
locations may already begin to see relief as rain cooled air works
over the region. It is worth noting that the rain cooled air will
come at a cost as thunderstorms may produce gusty winds,
especially when it comes to microburst potential. Localized flash
flooding may also accompany stronger storms, especially if heavier
rainfall stalls over a particular area.

By the later stages of the week, the aforementioned boundary will
have continued to push south, supporting showers and thunderstorms
primarily along and south of Interstate 20 during the Thursday
afternoon timeframe. From there, the coverage transitions to the
far southernmost zones of the FA as the boundary continues to
push south towards the coast. Behind the front, some brief relief
from the higher maxT`s will linger through Friday afternoon,
though it will be shortlived as highs will quickly push towards
the upper 90`s and near 100 deg F as early as Saturday, with the
theme continuing into Sunday. Though the heat will return in
force, drier air in the wake of the cold front will keep local dew
points in the mid 60`s, thus allowing for heat indices to not
stray far from the actual temperature, and keeping index values
below criteria. Hydration and proper heat safety will still be a
must if planning to be outdoors through the weekend, even with
a decrease in heat index values.

KNAPP

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

For the 20/06z TAF period. VFR conditions to prevail across area
terminals through the period. With a weak pressure gradient across
the region, light and variable winds overnight to become northerly
up to 6 knots today, diminishing to light and variable after 21/00Z.
Otherwise, scattered convection is expected to develop across the
region today, resulting in periods of reduced flight categories. /05/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight, but some
strong thunderstorms with locally gusty winds and small hail will
be possible through this evening as convection increases ahead of
a frontal boundary advancing southward from Arkansas and Oklahoma.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  99  77  95  74 /  50  30  30  10
MLU  98  74  93  71 /  60  40  30  10
DEQ  96  71  93  69 /  40  20  10   0
TXK  99  74  96  72 /  40  20  20   0
ELD  97  71  93  68 /  50  30  20   0
TYR  97  74  94  73 /  30  30  30  10
GGG  98  74  94  71 /  40  30  30  10
LFK  98  74  93  73 /  40  40  50  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...05