754
FXUS64 KSHV 080027
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
627 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1219 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

As discussed in the morning update, our much talked about frontal
boundary, separating temperatures near 80 degrees near and south
of the I-20 Corridor to temperatures still in the 50s this
afternoon across SW AR/NE TX and even some upper 40s across SE OK
and adjacent counties of SW AR was located as of the Noon hour
near a Monroe, Louisiana to Mount Pleasant, Texas line. While this
boundary has ceased from coming any further south, it has not
begun returning north as of yet but that process should commence
overnight. Thus, expect Min Temps tonight to occur during the
late evening and near midnight across our northern third with
temperatures gradually rising overnight the closer we get to
sunrise. Also cannot rule out patchy fog overnight, but especially
in the vicinity and north of the returning boundary. Continued to
ride the CONShort output overnight in regards to dewpoints and
temperatures as it has by far done a much better job in regards to
the shallow cooler airmass in place.

Clouds should break more quickly on Saturday and with
southwesterly winds returning to all areas, will see another day
of well above normal temperatures, this time across the entire
region with highs ranging in the upper 70s to lower and middle 80s
with record high temperatures once again a good bet across the
region. Saturday will be the last of the warm days for a while
as yet another cold front will begin moving into our far northwest
zones late Saturday Afternoon and this boundary should have
pushed as far south as the I-20 Corridor by sunrise Sunday
Morning. Have advertised slight chance pops areawide to coincide
with this boundary Saturday Night with low temperatures ranging
from the lower 40s northwest to the lower 60s south.

13

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1219 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

The above mentioned boundary will be very slow to shift south
completely through our region and it may wait until Sunday Night
before completely pushing through the Lower Toledo Bend and Sam
Rayburn Country of Deep East Texas. While our upper flow across
the Southern Plains/Lower Miss Valley will still be mostly zonal
through Sunday Night, an uptick in post frontal isentropic forcing
will constitute increasing pops to low end chance variety
areawide for Sunday Night and into Monday.

Meanwhile, looking upstream, at a longwave trough that will begin
taking shape across the Intermountain West Monday into Tuesday. As
this trough begins to dig, it will buckle the downstream upper
flow across our region. Disturbances embedded in this
increasingly southwest flow aloft will provide the necessary
forcing that will result in widespread precipitation beginning to
overspread our region from west to east Monday Night and
especially during the day Tuesday. As has been mentioned in
previous outlook discussions, this trough will come out in waves
with another piece of energy impacting our region late Tuesday
Night and into the day Wednesday before exiting our region Wed
Night into Thursday.

More energy in association with the main longwave trough itself
appears to eject out into the Great Plains sometime early next
weekend and this trough ejection promises more precipitation
unfortunately. There could be a threat for some strong to severe
thunderstorms for early next weekend just beyond this 7-day
forecast package if the rapid low-level return flow can support
enough instability across our region as latest deterministic
models suggest.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

For the 08/00Z TAF update, VFR vis/cigs are expected until 08/09Z
as IFR low clouds once again quickly redevelop across the entire
airspace with a chance of patchy FG. A stalled frontal boundary
north of the I-20 corridor will continue to meander in our
airspace, maintaining low to mid-level cloud cover through the
period with IFR/MVFR vis/cigs slowly improving back to VFR by
09/00Z. Southerly surface winds will continue through the period
at 10-15 mph. /16/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 604 AM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  84  58  63 /  10  10  20  30
MLU  63  82  54  62 /  10  10  20  30
DEQ  53  78  44  50 /  20  10  20  30
TXK  62  83  49  53 /  20  10  20  30
ELD  60  81  47  55 /  20  10  20  30
TYR  65  83  57  61 /  10  10  20  30
GGG  66  84  57  63 /  10  10  20  30
LFK  66  85  64  76 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...16