360
FXUS64 KSHV 041124
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
624 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday Night)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Busy short term with widespread severe thunderstorms likely
across much of our region over the next 36hrs along with a
continued flooding threat mainly north of the I-20 Corridor
through the day Saturday.

The players in this potentially volatile weather environment
remain the same, a stalled frontal boundary across NE TX into S AR
and a deep upper level trough that remains anchored across the
Intermountain West. This is allowing for deep southwesterly flow
aloft and numerous disturbances embedded in this flow will allow
for the upper level support necessary for scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms today into tonight. While the frontal
boundary has shifted a little further south and east currently
than progs had suggested on Thursday, this boundary should rapidly
return back northward again today, thus putting much of our region
in the warm sector as we await on upstream forcing. Progs are in
pretty good agreement that the likelihood of severe thunderstorms
will probably wait until this afternoon across our northwest half
giving the fact that the atmosphere should be significantly
unstable to go along with very strong deep layer and low level
directional shear, especially across the I-20 and I-30 Corridors
of Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, Southwest Arkansas and
extreme Northwest Louisiana. SPC has included much of this region
in a MDT Risk for Severe Thunderstorms this afternoon through this
evening with the possibility of very large hail, potentially in
excess of 2 inches, damaging wind gusts in excess of 70 mph as
well as the possibility of a few long tracked tornadoes, some of
which could be of EF2 or greater intensity. That threat should
begin diminishing somewhat after midnight but the heavy rainfall
threat will continue, especially near and north of the I-30
Corridor where a Flood Watch remains in effect through Saturday
Night.

As we transition into Saturday, the anchored longwave trough to
our west finally begins to slowly eject out to the east. Upper
forcing, which will already be significant across our northwest
third to start the period, will only continue increasing in
advance of what will likely be an MCS that will gradually advance
eastward into our region during the day. Storm mode for Saturday
will likely be in the form of a developing QLCS-type configuration
with embedded and/or discrete supercell thunderstorms, all of
which will be capable of producing very large hail, significant
winds and long tracked tornadoes again, especially if we can see
the discrete supercell development during the period of peak
afternoon heating across SC AR and N LA where the greatest tornado
potential will exist. The flooding potential should rapidly taper
off the later we get into the evening and overnight hours across
our northern most zones but for now, will keep the Flood Watch
valid through Saturday Night.

13

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

With the severe weather threat ending across our eastern zones
Saturday Evening, the next weather story will be the significant
cool down across the Southern Plains/Lower Miss Valley for Sunday
and through the early part of next week. The upper trough to our
west will come out in two pieces, the first Sunday into Sunday
Night and the second, Monday into Monday Night with high
temperatures mostly in the 50s across our northwest half on Sunday
and only in the 60s for Monday. Even colder will be forecast low
temperatures Sunday Night/Monday Morning with lows in the 30s
across the Middle Red River Valley of NE TX/SE OK and SW AR with
similar temperatures for Monday Night into Tuesday Morning.

Temperatures quickly moderate as we move into the middle and later
part of next week with 80s returning by Thu into Fri. Upper level
ridging replaces the early week trough and that ridge will be here
to stay through the entire work week which will allow for a dry
forecast areawide.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

For the 04/12z TAF update...Radar imagery is still showing a few
light showers across portions of the area, mainly for areas of
northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma. Still expecting more
showers and thunderstorms to develop through the day today that
will impact most of our terminals. Aside from that, gusty south to
southeast winds are expected today with sustained winds around 15
kts and gusts of 20 to 25 kts possible. Widespread sub-VFR
conditions are expected throughout the day for all terminals. /33/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 229 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Spotter activation will be needed today and this evening across
East TX, Southeast Oklahoma, Southwest AR, and Northwest LA for
the potential for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  89  72  78  53 /  50  70 100  60
MLU  90  74  84  57 /  40  40  90  90
DEQ  78  58  66  44 /  90 100 100  80
TXK  84  66  74  50 /  90  90 100  60
ELD  86  67  78  50 /  50  70 100  90
TYR  82  62  70  47 /  90  90 100  30
GGG  86  66  74  48 /  70  90 100  50
LFK  88  71  79  49 /  50  70 100  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...None.
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OKZ077.

TX...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for TXZ096-097-108>112.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...33