385
FXUS64 KSHV 010347
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1047 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Decided to make a few changes to POPS and overnight lows based on
current trends and short-term progs. Also, added some fog to
our SE Oklahoma, SW/South-Central Arkansas zones, and portions of
NE Louisiana overnight. In addition to this, decided to let the
Excessive Heat Warning expire, but replace most of it with a Heat
Advisory, and kept a Heat Advisory in place for all of our East
Texas zones. For the remainder of the night, expect precip to
continue to diminish, with overnight lows generally in the mid to
upper 70s.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Nice little clusters of showers and thunderstorms are going from
SE OK across S AR and just edging into N LA now. We see spotty
convection farther south. All this activity is trying to
establish a little cool pool north, but lots of holes in that
cheese so far. The HRRR does a decent job of representing the
areas of concern and drifting southward into the evening as well.
This rain should make for a slightly cooler day tomorrow with heat
index 105 or less for at least S AR. Elsewhere, heat calculations
will generally be in the 106 to 110 range with another heat
advisory for Monday. We may see another warning upgrade if we end
up with some compressional heating tomorrow, but for now
considering current warning, we are sticking with another heat
advisory for Monday for our counties in OK/TX and all our LA
parishes, excluding S AR to some extent. Barring some decent
rainfall, it will be another night with some near record warmth
for lows at most locales, but some rain cooled areas will be
possible. Highs will be in the middle 90 range for most under
added clouds and the humidity will still running soupy, boosting
those HI numbers. The chance for more convection continues along
and south of I-20 for the most part on Monday and then dries up
going forward for a while. Lows tomorrow night should see the
benefit of the weak front with a little cooler range for lows in
the low to mid 70s on Tuesday as the 1027mb core stays in the
Great Lakes. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Much like this last little air mass, we are grazed by the
northeast winds briefly and see just one day and one night of
slightly cooler temps. Mid to late week will continue with mid to
upper 90s and lows in the mid to upper 70s widespread once again.
The sea breeze will spread into the parishes under the building
upper high and not much else during midweek. The models are
trending closer to average for next weekend as a deeper and
stronger upper low edges another front down into our neck of the
woods. So model pops are in the 20-40 range again by the end of
the forecast period keeping back the triple digits perhaps. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Conditions forecast to improve across area terminals through this
evening and convection gradually dissipates. Stable conditions
expected overnight with VFR conditions mainly prevailing with
light and variable winds. Could see MVFR ceilings just after
daybreak across MLU/ELD/TXK, which are expected to improve to VFR
by 01/15Z. Otherwise, VCTS conditions possible across most
locations except TYR/ELD after 01/18Z. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  80  96  77 100 /  20  40   0  10
MLU  77  94  72  97 /  20  20   0  10
DEQ  75  93  72  96 /  20  20   0   0
TXK  76  93  73 100 /  20  30   0   0
ELD  74  93  69  97 /  20  20   0   0
TYR  80  97  78 100 /  10  20   0   0
GGG  79  96  77  99 /  10  30   0  10
LFK  78  97  77  98 /  10  40   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ059-070.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...05