173
FXUS64 KSHV 241137 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
637 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

 - Two more hot afternoons for the short term, but our next cool
   front is on the way bringing us back to average and below.

 - Rainfall will be affecting our northern half early Tuesday as
   an upper disturbance rides over the front from OK into AR.
   Diurnal convection could be areawide in the pooled moisture.

 - Drier pattern unfolds for midweek, but SE winds and another
   cool front will do a better on widespread coverage of rainfall
   for Friday and into much of the holiday weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Weakening high pressure is soon to be reinforced over our Four
State area, but not before we endure a couple of more hot
afternoons. The NE winds continue to limit excessive heat by
keeping the humidity in check for us, but now it looks that our
rain opportunity for Tuesday will also be affected. The WPC
maintains a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall over our north on
Tuesday. Storms will have that slow movement so common with
summer-time activity, but now overall coverage looks far more
sparse south of I-20. Daytime heating and the limited, but pooled
moisture along the front should crop up some late day activity
over our south.

The high pressure refreshes the NE winds and keeps the excessive
heat at bay. And lowering heights aloft will drop the mid to upper
90s to average and below, depending on lingering clouds. We will
see a drier trend through midweek, but the high pressure center
will shift out of the MS River Valley into the mid Atlantic state
by late week, bringing better moisture inland off the Gulf for us
with SE winds for a couple of days. Friday may see the most rain
around based on the ECMWF which is a little more consistent on
timing. The GFS is now a little slower, but both models keep
spotty convection on the table for us all through the 3 day
holiday weekend.

The WPC QPF outlook focuses on areas north of I-20 for Tuesday
with better totals possible there and none zero elsewhere.
However, their days 5 through 7 period spreads more QPF areawide
for us all as we wrap up the month of August. Labor Day looks a
little wet as another front drop into our region, but only on the
GFS. And this may be good as the GFS also brings a hefty cyclone
up through the central Gulf coast, but the ECMWF remains very
different in this regard. So nothing to worry about at this time,
but certainly a potential system to watch in the coming days. The
peak of Atlantic Hurricane season is still a few weeks away. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

VFR conditions will continue through the 24/12Z TAF period.
Elevated cu cigs continue to develop over portions of N LA/extreme
Ern TX, and SW AR, which should persist through the day, with
a scattered lower cu field develop across the region by late
morning/midday, diminishing shortly after 00Z Monday. Areas of
thin cirrus will increase this evening and especially by daybreak
Monday over portions of NE TX/SW AR/N LA as it spreads SE from
OK/AR. ENE winds 5-7kts today will become Lt/Vrb after 00Z. /15/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 637 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  73  96  73 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  95  68  95  69 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  95  69  89  66 /   0   0  10  20
TXK  97  71  94  70 /   0   0   0  10
ELD  95  67  92  66 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  95  71  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  96  70  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  95  70  96  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...15