886
FXUS64 KSHV 191632
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1032 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1013 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

Though skies are clear, and there is plenty of sun to go around,
many are still below freezing at this hour. To add to this, NW
winds have been on the gusty side, between 10-15 mph, with gusts
upward of 20-25 mph. This has allowed for wind chill values to
remain in the low to mid teens, with some isolated single digit
values across the north. To no surprise, a Cold Weather Advisory
will go back into effect this evening for cold wind chill
temperatures areawide. In addition to this, with temperatures at
or below 20 deg F, a Freeze Warning has been issued for areas
along the I-20 corridor and north. Temperatures to this degree,
for a prolonged period of time will result in hard freeze impacts.
This will lead to damage of vegetation and exposed pipes if not
protected. Both of these products are set to expire at 9 AM CST
Monday. That being said, with cold temperatures continuing even
without wind, the Cold Weather Advisory will need to be extended
in future packages.

KNAPP

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 348 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

The highly advertised cold weather is finally starting to push
into the region this morning behind an upper trough sweeping
across the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. Stubborn
low clouds that hung across the region all day Saturday have
finally started to shift eastward over the past several hours.
Most of the clouds have moved just east of the I-49 corridor of
Arkansas & Louisiana. Behind the clouds, temps have dropped
quickly into the low to mid 20s, which is about 10 degrees cooler
than locations underneath the clouds.Eventually temps should fall
to freezing and below areawide. A Cold Weather Advisory is in
effect through mid morning today for most of the region, excluding
our Central Louisiana parishes and portions of our Northeast
Louisiana zones.

Expect mostly sunny skies today, but temps will be well below
normal. Highs will range from the mid 30s in our northern zones to
lower 40s in our southern forecast locations. However, northwest
winds around 15 mph, along with gusts up to 30 mph today, will
make it feel much cooler outside. We should see similar conditions
on Monday, but with less winds. Mostly clear skies and lighter
winds will allow for temps to fall into the upper teens to lower
20s by sunrise Monday morning, so another Cold Weather Advisory
will be in place along and south of I-20, with a Hard Freeze
Warning possible north of I-20. /20/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 348 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

The forecast gets very interesting as we move into Monday night
and early Tuesday morning. Clouds will be on the increase from
the west ahead of a short-wave disturbance diving across the Red
River Valley of North Texas. At the same time, a low pressure
system will be developing along the Gulf Coast near the Texas and
Mexico border. Both of these systems will generate some light
precip, which will first move into our western zones. As we move
into Tuesday morning, the low along the coast will crank up,
sending a large shield of precipitation into our area. With a cold
arctic airmass in place, most of the precip will fall as snow,
although some sleet could mix in across Deep East Texas and
adjacent Central Louisiana south of the US Highway 84 corridor.
The looming questions with this system is how far north will the
precip shield make it and how much snow will areas see. The
current thinking is that the northern extent of the precip will
generally be somewhere near the I-20 corridor. However, if the low
moves 10 to 20 miles in any direction, things could shift. As far
as amounts go, the more south you go from I-20, the higher amount
of snow you will see. At this time, forecast storm totals will
range from a quarter of an inch around I-20 to up to 3 inches
along and south of US Highway 84 corridor. One thing to really
consider, with the arctic airmass in place and temps expected to
be well below freezing, snow ratios could be over 10 to 1, which
could yield higher amounts. Because of this, a Winter Storm Watch
has been issued for counties/parishes generally south of I-20,
with the exception being the inclusion of Ouachita Parish in
Northeast Louisiana. Please continue to monitor the forecast as
this event continues to unfold, as Winter Weather Advisories and
Winter Storm warnings will likely be issued within the next 24-36
hours.

The snow should move out of the region late Tuesday. Dry
conditions and well below normal temps can be expected across the
region through the remainder of the work week, with morning lows
in the teens and twenties. Afternoon highs will generally top out
in the 40s, with lower 50s possible by Friday. Any residual
snowpack could aid in cooler afternoon highs.

Southerly winds will finally return by the start of next weekend,
resulting in warmer temps on Saturday and Sunday. But, another
cool front will bring rain chances back into the region by Sunday.

/20/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

For the ArkLaTex terminals, VFR with the last of some stratocu
clearing KELD now and KMLU in a few hrs. Sfc winds remain gusty
as Arctic high pressure continues to pour into the lower MS River
Valley. NW15-25KT will ease up later today and veer to N/NE
overnight. Clouds increase on Monday with a secondary fropa and
upper disturbance tapping Gulf moisture from an inverted trough
over the N Gulf. Snow showers could affect many of our terminals
into Tuesday with greatest impacts from KLFK to near KMLU. /24/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 316 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  40  21  39  24 /   0   0   0  30
MLU  41  20  37  23 /   0   0   0  20
DEQ  35  14  33  19 /   0   0   0  20
TXK  38  18  37  22 /   0   0   0  20
ELD  38  17  36  19 /   0   0   0  20
TYR  38  22  39  24 /   0   0   0  40
GGG  39  20  39  22 /   0   0   0  40
LFK  42  23  41  24 /   0   0   0  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday
     for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday for
     ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday
     for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday for
     LAZ001>006.

     Winter Storm Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon
     for LAZ010>014-017>022.

OK...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday
     for OKZ077.

     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday for
     OKZ077.

TX...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday
     for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday for
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-138.

     Winter Storm Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon
     for TXZ149-152-153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...24