820
FXUS64 KSHV 101105
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
605 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025

 - Slightly cooler conditions expected through the remainder of
   the weekend into much of next week.

 - Rain chances return to the area starting Sunday and becoming
   more widespread on Monday and Tuesday.

 - Hot and dry conditions to possibly return late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025

An inverted upper-level trough extending across the northwestern
gulf into the ArkLaTex and the mid-Mississippi River Valley to
bring big changes to the forecast through the remainder of the
weekend into most of next week. Instability associated with the
upper-trough will allow for sufficient mixing to limit high
temperatures to the low to mid 90s through Tuesday. However, with
low-level southerly flow across the ArkLaTex resulting from a
surface high across the Appalachians, dewpoint values in the mid
70s will continue to support afternoon heat index values around
100 to 105 degrees each day.

The upper-trough will linger across Texas into Oklahoma through
the majority of the forecast period allowing for increased chances
for diurnally driven afternoon convection each day across mainly
the eastern half of the ArkLaTex with the highest chances on
Monday.

The upper-trough to eject east on Wednesday night into Thursday to
be replaced by a westward building upper-ridge which will bring a
return of hot and dry conditions across the region late in the
workweek with temperatures by Friday possibly approaching 100
degrees across portions of north Louisiana and south-central
Arkansas. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Seeing some early morning cumulus on IR this morning with heights
ranging from near 35hdft to near 5kft. We will see more of this as
the morning continues and especially by late morning into the
afternoon hours. Cannot rule out some brief ceilings near 4-6kft
today along with isolated convection once again across portions of
NE TX, SW AR and N LA. Storm chances do not warrant a mention in
the 06z TAF package however. Any remnant convection should quickly
dissipate after 00z this evening. Look for mostly E to SE winds
today with speeds generally under 10kts outside of convection
outflow boundaries.

13

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  77  95  77 /  20  10  40  20
MLU  94  75  93  75 /  20  20  50  20
DEQ  95  72  93  72 /  10   0  20  10
TXK  96  75  95  75 /  10   0  30  10
ELD  94  72  92  72 /  20  10  30  10
TYR  94  74  93  74 /  10   0  30  10
GGG  94  74  93  73 /  10   0  30  10
LFK  94  74  93  74 /  20  10  50  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...13