661
FXUS64 KSHV 280634
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1234 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1215 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

- The next rounds of rain will return by Saturday morning with a
  wet weather pattern continuing into early next week.

- While uncertainty remains elevated, some low-end potential
  exists (< 20%-30%) for wintry precipitation on Monday and
  Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1215 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Our next chance of rain is already on the way across Washington
state as Thanksgiving night remains the last dry night for a while
across the Four State Region. Rain will begin to return overnight
tomorrow as the initial trough quickly ejects from the
Intermountain West with convection increasing through the day on
Saturday. Enough ingredients will be present in the atmosphere
from the following trough (mid-level lapse rates of 7+ C/km) for
the development of thunderstorms capable of producing hail (and
some damaging winds), especially along and south of the I-20
corridor. Subsequent frontal passage on Sunday will introduce the
coldest air of the season so far. Combined with Pacific moisture,
medium-range guidance continues to indicate increasing potential
for wintry precipitation, most likely in the form of freezing
rain. That said, uncertainty remains regarding the alignment of
enough cold air, moisture and lift for wintry precipitation, all
of which adds up to a 20-30% chance of occurrence at this time.
Temperatures will remain near-normal (maximums in the 60s,
minimums in the 40s) until Sunday as the next air mass is ushered
in with frontal passage to bring temperatures back below normal
into the first days of December: maximums in the 50s, minimums in
the 20s-30s at the coldest on Monday night before rebounding back
to normal by mid-week. /16/


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1032 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

SCT cirrus have begun moving across the area late this evening and
will continue to increase in coverage through Friday while a mid
level deck also eventually advects in from the west. VFR
conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with major changes
then expected after 29/06z. Calm winds overnight tonight will
become southeasterly on Friday at 8-12kts. Scattered rain showers
and perhaps a few thunderstorms will begin to approach westernmost
airfields at the very end of this TAF period.

CK

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 116 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  46  64  39 /   0  70  80  90
MLU  58  41  63  40 /   0  20  70  90
DEQ  58  39  55  28 /   0  90 100  40
TXK  60  43  60  33 /   0  80  90  70
ELD  56  38  56  33 /   0  50  90  90
TYR  62  48  66  35 /   0  70  90  60
GGG  62  45  66  35 /   0  80  80  70
LFK  63  46  70  40 /   0  60  70  90

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...23