371
FXUS66 KSGX 152041
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
141 PM PDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warming trend will occur through the weekend across the area.
Light offshore winds will occur across northern areas of the
coastal slopes and surrounding valleys Thursday morning through
Friday morning. An area of low pressure off the coast will move
closer to our region by the first half of next week bringing in
cooler weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

The Pacific storm that caused rainy and windy conditions has moved
into the Great Basin. Onshore flow has eased with drying
continuing to occur this afternoon as clouds slowly scatter for
those along and west of the mountains. Pressure heights will
continue to rise as the storm system moves further into the Great
Plains and high pressure strengthens offshore. A weak area of low
pressure will become a cutoff low off the coast by Thursday into
the weekend, where upper level winds will begin to turn out of
the north and east. This will lead to a weak offshore wind
pattern, with highest winds occurring over the coastal slopes and
passes of San Bernardino and Riverside Counties. There is a
25-35% chance in seeing wind gusts over 30 MPH in these regions
and across the Inland Empire Thursday morning to Friday morning.
As heights begin to rise into the weekend, a warming trend will
occur across Southern California. By the weekend, we can expect
highs to become closer to average with widespread 80s from the
lower desert to the Inland Empire/SD valleys and 70s closer to the
coast up into the foothills and high desert.

The cutoff low will continue to spin off the coast into early next
week as high pressure starts to build into the Desert Southwest
and a trough dips into the Pacific Northwest. The interactions
between these three features is still not completely resolved in
the model guidance as we look toward next week. Confidence is
growing that the trough to the north will not be able to move far
enough south to bring any wet weather. The movement of the cutoff
low will also be dependent on how expansive the high pressure area
becomes. Stronger upper level flow aloft may be able to hamper the
area of high pressure southward, being able to bring the cutoff
low over our region. This scenario is reflected in the latest
forecast per NBM, where a cooling trend is observed with a
deepening marine layer west of the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...
152000Z....Coast/Valleys...FEW-SCT clouds based 2500-5000 feet MSL
will continue to clear through the evening. VFR expected to prevail
with FEW-SCT low clouds near 3000ft MSL around KSAN tonight into
early Thursday morning.

.Mountains/Deserts...VFR through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Sunday.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...APR
AVIATION/MARINE...Zuber