648
FXUS66 KSGX 092149
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
149 PM PST Sat Nov 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions with near normal temperatures expected this weekend.
A few degrees of cooling, an uptick in westerly winds over the
mountains and deserts, and an increase in low cloud and fog coverage
west of the mountains is expected for early next week. Breezy north
to northeast winds are expected west of the mountains for the middle
of the week with a few degrees of warming. Cooler, cloudier,
windier, and the potential for wetter conditions expected for next
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Temperatures at 1 PM were running 2 to 6 degrees warmer than
yesterday for most locations. Clear skies are expected to
continue into Sunday. Highs for Sunday are expected to be a few
degrees warmer than today for most locations. Low clouds are
expected to stay away, but could return in a patchy fashion Sunday
night or Monday morning. There is higher confidence in more
widespread low cloud coverage along the coast, locally into the
valleys, Monday evening.

A moisture starved shortwave trough is expected to dig south and
east across Southern California Monday. Over the past few model runs
the system has trended drier. The afternoon forecast package
keeps conditions dry for Monday. Regardless, there should be
cooling and an increase in low cloud coverage into Tuesday
morning due to the increase in onshore flow. Gusty westerly winds
are expected over the mountains, locally into the deserts Monday
afternoon. Peak gusts of 40 to 50 mph expected.

After that low moves to our east, north to northeasterly winds will
quickly develop for Tuesday morning. Peak gusts of 30 to 40 mph are
expected on the coastal slopes of the mountains and below the
Cajon Pass into the Inland Empire. A weak ridge will move over
Southern California for mid- week and combine with weak offshore
flow to bring warming. There is a chance of rain Friday night into
Saturday of next week due to a potentially broader deeper trough
moving into the US West Coast. There remains model differences in
timing and rainfall amounts, but at least half of individual
members on both the GEFS and ECMWF are showing measurable rainfall
for the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
092130Z...VFR with mostly clear skies today through Sunday morning.
Winds remain relatively light, with a weak sea breeze for the
coasts/inland valleys and up-valley flow in the Coachella Valley
this afternoon, followed by weak offshore flow overnight. A few
patches of low clouds (based around 500-1000ft MSL) are possible
offshore tonight, but CIGs/impacts aren`t expected near any TAF
sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Stronger northwest winds are expected late Monday afternoon through
early Tuesday morning, with gusts around 20-25 kts in the outer
coastal waters, strongest near San Clemente Island. Otherwise, no
hazardous marine conditions expected through Wednesday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE...Munyan