607
FXUS66 KSGX 101119
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
319 AM PST Fri Jan 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong and gusty Santa Ana winds will diminish this afternoon.
Lowest humidity for inland areas today will fall today to around
10 percent and combined with the gusty winds will maintain
critical fire weather conditions through this afternoon. There
will be weaker offshore flow for the weekend with the stronger
Santa Ana winds gusting to 30 to 40 mph on Saturday and 40 to 50
mph for Saturday night and Sunday. A weak low pressure system may
develop off the southern California coast early next week. Light
precipitation for the middle of next week may remain mostly off
the coast with moderate strength Santa Ana winds for land areas
with gusts to 40 to 50 mph with critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...
For Orange and southwestern San Bernardino Counties along and
below the coastal slopes of the mountains, Santa Ana winds at 3
AM are mostly gusting to 45 to 55 mph after having peaked in
strengthen during Thursday afternoon and evening. These winds will
continue to subside this morning.

For the San Diego County mountains and inland valleys, the winds
are expected to continue strengthening the next few hours, peaking
in intensity and coverage around sunrise with gusts to 60 to 70
mph and isolated gusts to 80 mph. The winds will diminish during
the late morning and afternoon.

Offshore flow will be weaker for this weekend with northeasterly
Santa Ana winds weaker and more localized on Saturday with gusts
to 30 to 40 mph and a little stronger for Saturday night and
Sunday with the stronger gusts to 40 to 50 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through Thursday)...
A weak upper level low pressure system may develop off the coast
of southern California around Tuesday of next week and linger off
the coast on Wednesday. There could be some light precipitation
with this system. Depending on the location of this low pressure
system, the precipitation could remain mostly off the coast. NBM
chances for measurable precipitation are generally 8 to 12 percent
for Wednesday and 10 to 15 percent for Thursday. There could also
be periods of gusty Santa Ana winds for next Tuesday and
Wednesday with ECMWF ensemble output for Campo showing those
winds intermediate in strength between the stronger winds of early
today and the not-as-strong winds for this upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
101030Z...Strong and gusty northeast winds will continue for
valleys, mountain slopes and locally into the coastal plain early
this morning. These areas will have gusts 25-40 knots, locally to as
high as 55 knots. Isolated vis reduced to 3-5SM in BLDU. Areas of
LLWS and MOD to locally STG up/downdrafts in lee of mountains.
Strong winds will begin to decrease after 15Z and become more
isolated to mountains and coastal foothills through 20Z, diminishing
thereafter. Mostly clear skies today and tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Locally gusty northeast winds up to 20 knots are possible early this
morning. No hazardous marine conditions are expected today through
Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
For Orange and southwestern San Bernardino Counties along and
below the coastal slopes of the mountains, Santa Ana winds at 3
AM are mostly gusting to 45 to 55 mph after having peaked in
strength during Thursday afternoon and evening. These winds will
continue to subside this morning.

For the San Diego County mountains and inland valleys, the winds
are expected to continue strengthening the next few hours, peaking
in intensity and coverage around sunrise with gusts to 60 to 70
mph and isolated gusts to 80 mph. The winds will diminish during
the late morning and afternoon.

Offshore flow will be weaker for this weekend with northeasterly
Santa Ana winds weaker and more localized on Saturday with gusts
to 30 to 40 mph and a little stronger for Saturday night and
Sunday with the stronger gusts to 40 to 50 mph.

Lowest humidity for inland areas today will fall to around 10
percent. Lowest humidity on Saturday will fall to 15 to
25 percent and on Sunday to 10 to 15 percent.

Critical fire weather weather conditions will continue for the
mountains, valleys, and inland Orange County today. There could be
periods of more localized near critical fire weather conditions
over the weekend for those areas.

A weak upper level low pressure system may develop off the coast
of southern California around Tuesday of next week and linger off
the coast on Wednesday. There could be some light precipitation
with this system. Depending on the location of this low pressure
system, the precipitation could remain mostly off the coast. NBM
chances for measurable precipitation are generally 8 to 12 percent
for Wednesday and 10 to 15 percent for Thursday. There could also
be periods of gusty Santa Ana winds for next Tuesday and
Wednesday with ECMWF ensemble output for Campo showing those
winds intermediate in strength between the stronger winds of early
today and the not-as-strong winds for this upcoming weekend.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Wind Warning until 6 AM PST early this morning for Orange
     County Inland Areas-San Bernardino County Mountains-San
     Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-
     Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills.

     Red Flag Warning until 6 PM PST this evening for Orange County
     Inland Areas-Riverside County Mountains-Including The San
     Jacinto Ranger District Of The San Bernardino National
     Forest-San Bernardino County Mountains-Including The
     Mountain Top And Front Country Ranger Districts Of The San
     Bernardino National Forest-San Bernardino and Riverside
     County Valleys  -The Inland Empire-San Diego County Inland
     Valleys-San Diego County Mountains-Including The Palomar
     And Descanso Ranger Districts of the Cleveland National
     Forest-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning-Santa Ana Mountains-
     Including The Trabuco Ranger District of the Cleveland
     National Forest.

     High Wind Warning until 2 PM PST this afternoon for Riverside
     County Mountains-San Diego County Mountains-San Diego
     County Valleys-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning.

PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MM