362
FXUS66 KSGX 041548
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
848 AM PDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Minor warming through the holiday weekend with highs near normal
and night and morning low clouds continuing along the coastal
areas and western valleys. A ridge of high pressure will strengthen
over the region, leading to building confidence in a heat wave
across the area and the potential first push of monsoon moisture
by the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.Morning Update..

Low clouds will continue to clear to the coast this morning, with
mostly clear conditions expected through the afternoon. Low clouds
will start to filter back into San Diego County between 8-10 PM
tonight, an hour or two later across Orange County. With cloud
bases near 1,000 feet, clouds will be high enough to not impact
any firework displays across most areas. Cloud cover timing and
coverage across the coast and western valleys will be similar
through the holiday weekend. Most locations will feel a touch
warmer today compared to yesterday, with similar highs expected
into Saturday and Sunday. We still continue to watch for the
upcoming heat wave next week, so stay tuned.

.Previous Discussion (331 AM Friday)...

Today through this weekend...

The troughing over the eastern Pacific waters is going to remain
nearly in place throughout this period in the forecast, which little
change with respect to temperatures, with only a very gradual warmup
each day. In terms of the marine layer, coverage is going to be
similar tonight, with some of these low clouds making it into the
Inland empire (IE) again. An upper level low will form off the coast
of northern California by later in the day on Sunday and then
slowly transition southward. Meanwhile, the ridge over the desert
southwest is going to continue to strengthen, which will result
in the lower deserts getting back to being above 110F by Sunday.
Conditions will remain dry, although given the position of the
low, some of the low clouds thickening up during the overnight
hours and producing some possible very light drizzle for locations
west of the mountains cannot be ruled out completely.

Monday through Thursday...

By next week, the U/L low positioned out over the coastal waters
will begin to propagate back up towards the north and eventually
become absorbed back into the longwave trough upstream.
Meanwhile, the ridge to the east is going to further strengthen
and slightly retrograde back towards the west a little. As the
ridge axis gets closer to the CWA, temperatures are also going to
continue to rise, especially for the inland areas. By the middle
of next week (Wednesday), temperatures will likely top 100F for
most locations within the IE, and even approaching 80F for most of
the coastal areas. Some increased moisture could help to slightly
modify temperatures on the cooler side. Conditions will continue
to remain dry through the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
041530Z....Coast/Valleys...Satellite shows low clouds with bases
1500-1800ft MSL and tops to 2000ft MSL are quickly burning off, with
coastal sites expected to become FEW-SCT by 16z. Localized areas of
patchy low clouds may hang just offshore over the next several
hours, although most if not all locations will be clear by the
afternoon. Low clouds with slightly lower bases 900-1300 ft MSL
reform and push back ashore after 03Z Sat. Less inland extent with
clouds only reaching around 10-15 miles inland by 12z Sat. Quick
burn off by 16z expected again on Saturday.

VIS restrictions (2-5SM) will be possible in FU associated with
fireworks this evening, especially in Orange County and western IE.
Localized spots may briefly fall to 1SM below 1000ft MSL.

Mountains/Deserts...Sunny with mostly unrestricted VIS through
Saturday morning. Locations near fireworks displays may briefly see
reduced VIS due to FU generally below 1000ft MSL.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine weather conditions are expected through Tuesday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Southerly swell (190 degrees) of 3 feet at 15-17 seconds will
generate elevated surf of 3-6 ft with sets to 7 ft along south
facing beaches through Saturday. In addition, strong rip and
longshore currents expected at all beaches today and Saturday. A
Beach Hazards Statement is in effect and contains more information.
Swell and surf will begin to lower on Sunday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Saturday evening for Orange
     County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...APR/Stewey
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Zuber