437
FXUS66 KSGX 142046
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
146 PM PDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will continue to impact Southern California
through this evening with heavy rain and gusty winds. Clearing
tonight leading into quiet weather and gradual warming through the
weekend. Another low pressure system from the north will bring
cooling early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

This afternoon, a convective precipitation band is pushing through
the coastal basin along the cold front attached to the low
pressure system to the north. This will continue to bring heavy
rain and gusty winds to San Diego County and eastern mountains
through this evening. Rainfall rates of 0.3-0.5" per hour remain
possible in these areas presenting a minor flood risk for the next
few hours. A strong LLJ may allow for isolated strong wind gusts
in the stronger convection currently coming onshore in San Diego
County.

Scattered post-frontal showers lingering this evening across the
coastal basin, but any additional rainfall should remain light
with minimal impacts. Clearing expected from west to east across
the area tonight as the low pressure system exits the region.

Much more benign weather will follow as a weak ridge builds into
the southwestern US leading to dry conditions and gradual warming
through the weekend. A surface high will move over intermountain
west by Wednesday and should create enough of an offshore pressure
gradient to prevent marine layer cloud development for a few
days.

By early next week another upper level trough will swing across
the western US. This should bring temperatures back to below
average, but impacts beyond that are uncertain at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
142045Z...Heaviest showers moving VCTY SAN will be the last of the
heaviest rain activity and 2-4sm vis reductions. BKN-OVC clouds will
begin to rise from north to south through the afternoon with varying
bases 1500-3000 ft. Any -SHRA activity will be associated with bases
below 1000 ft at times. -SHRA becoming more intermittent along and
west of the mountains until 0Z, drying out there after with
scattering clouds. Mostly clear after 17Z Wed.

S/SW winds along the coast will gust up to 30 kts until 23Z. Gusts
30-40 kts in the mountains and desert slopes until 06Z Wed. MOD
UDDFS and local LLWS or rotors in lee of mountains such as vcnty
KPSP. Local vis reduced 3-5SM in BLDU in deserts through 22Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong southerly winds will begin to weaken through this afternoon,
turning west. Conditions still hazardous for small craft (check the
Small Craft Advisory for details) through late afternoon. Weaker
westerly winds will follow behind the front. No additional hazardous
marine conditions are expected this evening through Saturday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Surf will be 3 to 5 feet, with occasional sets to 6 feet through
tonight. This will produce a high rip current risk. &&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for San Diego County
     Coastal Areas-San Diego County Valleys.

     Flash Flood Watch until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for Orange
     County Inland Areas-San Bernardino County Mountains-Santa
     Ana Mountains and Foothills.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for Coastal
     Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border and out
     to 10 nm-Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border
     Extending 10 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...KW
AVIATION/MARINE...APR