977
FXUS66 KSGX 281730
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
930 AM PST Fri Feb 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and cloudier pattern is expected through much of next week.
Periods of gusty westerly winds expected Saturday through Monday
along with periods of light to locally moderate precipitation.
Snow levels will fall to near 6000 ft by Saturday morning and will
fall to 4000 to 4500 ft by Monday morning. Additional chances of
precipitation are expected at times Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Visible satellite at 9 AM was showing areas of high clouds across
much of Southern California ahead of a weakening low pressure
system. This low pressure system is expected to bring cooler,
windier, and wetter conditions for late tonight into Saturday.
This initial system will quickly be followed by an additional
system Sunday night into Monday which will keep cooler, cloudier,
windier, and wet conditions. Coastal low clouds and fog will
become more widespread this afternoon, reaching the coastal
mountains slopes by early Saturday morning.

For tonight into Saturday morning, periods of light to locally
moderate showers are expected in and west of the mountains. Rainfall
rates are expected to stay below 0.25 inches per hour. Snow levels
will lower to around 6000 ft. Overall, rainfall totals are expected
to be 0.10" or less for the coast and valleys and up to 0.25" on
the coastal mountain slopes. Snowfall totals will be an inch or
less. There will be stronger and gusty west winds for the
mountains and deserts Saturday. The strongest winds are expected
for the mountains and deserts in Riverside and San Diego Counties
with the stronger gusts on the desert slopes of the mountains to
55 to 65 mph.

The next Pacific low pressure system will move to near the
California coast on Sunday and through Southern California on
Monday. The most likely time for more widespread precipitation
across southwestern California is Sunday night into Monday. Forecast
rainfall rates for Sunday night into Monday per our high
resolution WRF model range from 0.15 to 0.30" per hour, with the
higher rates in the mountains. Rainfall and liquid-equivalent
above the snow level could range from 0.10" to locally 0.25" near
the coast to 0.30" to 0.50" in the mountains with local amounts to
1". NBM chances for 1" or more of rainfall are around 20 to 30
percent on the coastal slopes of the mountains. The snow level
will be 6000 to 6500 ft Sunday afternoon and lower to 4000 to 4500
feet by Monday morning. There could be a inch or two of snowfall
as low as around 4500 feet with 3 to 5 inches above 6000 to 6500
feet.

There are lower chances for showers on Tuesday with additional
chances at times Wednesday through Friday but with lower confidence
in the details.

&&

.AVIATION...
281600Z...Coast/Valleys...Areas of BKN/OVC low clouds will gradually
develop and move in from the west 19Z-23Z with bases of 1500-2500 ft
MSL, continuing through Sat morning with tops gradually rising from
3000 ft MSL this afternoon to 6000 ft MSL by Sat morning with higher
terrain obscurations but most VIS below the clouds above 5 miles.
There is a 20-40 percent chance of -SHRA Sat morning and early
afternoon, with highest chances in San Diego County.

Mountains/Deserts...High clouds above 15000 ft MSL will continue
through Sat morning. Additionally on the coastal mountain slopes,
low clouds/fog will develop and move in from the west, obscuring the
slopes below 4000 ft MSL after 06Z Sat and below 6000 ft MSL along
with a 30-40 percent chance of -SHRA after 15Z Sat. Areas of west
winds with gusts 25-40 kt will develop after 12Z Sat from the crests
east through the desert slopes and locally in the deserts.

&&

.MARINE...
Onshore winds will increase and seas will build Sunday, and elevated
seas and winds will continue through late Monday. These winds and
seas could generate hazardous boating conditions.

&&

.BEACHES...
A series of west-northwest swells (mostly 280-290 degrees, 14-17
second period) will bring surf of 4-7 feet today, then again Sunday
through Monday, with local sets to 8 feet in southern San Diego
County, along with high rip current risk. A Beach Hazard Statement
continues for this hazard through 10 PM tonight.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for Orange County
     Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...CSP