Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA
943 FXUS66 KSGX 060939 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 239 AM PDT Sun Oct 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Hot conditions for inland areas will continue through much of this week. Overall, today will be the hottest day with gradually lower temperatures into next weekend. Inland temperatures will remain above seasonal averages and next Saturday looks like it will be the coolest day but even then, temperatures will still be as much as 6 degrees above seasonal averages in the mountains and deserts. The shallow marine layer continues to moderate temperatures near the coast where it will remain near or slightly above seasonal averages. On Tuesday, the marine layer deepens significantly and spreads cooler marine air farther inland, beginning a trend of gradually lower temperatures for all areas. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... This morning, the marine layer is marginally shallower than yesterday but still the low clouds and fog have spread up to 15 miles inland in some areas. Areas of fog with reduced visibility is affecting elevated coastal terrain. A clearing pattern and timetable similar to yesterday is likely, with low clouds and fog clinging to the beaches into the afternoon. The dominant upper high is now centered over the lower Colorado River valley with ridging covering all of the Inter-Mountain West. Today looks like it will be the hottest day, mainly for inland areas where temps will be 10-20 degrees above seasonal averages. High temps in the inland valleys will range from the mid 90s to about 103, the mtns below 6000 ft will be in the 80s to 90s, the upper deserts will be in the 90s to low triple digits and the lower deserts will be 105-113 degrees. Relatively weak upper level troughing to the west will gradually move inland over SoCal as a more intense trough moves inland over the Pacific Northwest. The ridge will weaken and be displaced to the east. Tuesday will be noticeably cooler for much of the region as the upper trough moves overhead, deepening the marine and spreading night and morning low clouds and fog farther inland. Even areas too far inland to be influenced by the marine layer will experience some cooling as heights and thickness decrease. Even so, temperatures will remain 10-15 degrees above average in the valleys, mtns and deserts. The cooling trend continues into next weekend, and Saturday will likely be the coolest day overall. However, inland temperatures will still be as much as 6 degrees above average. Temperatures look like they will trend upward again for next Sunday as the high pressure ridge begins to rebound but the forecast is quite uncertain at this time due to the spread in ensemble member solutions across model platforms. && .AVIATION... 060845Z...Coasts/Valleys...Stratus with bases 400-800 ft MSL and tops to 1100 MSL continuing along the coast and up to 10-15 mi inland this morning. Areas of 2-4 SM vis in BR/HZ, locally as low as 1/4 SM in FG on the coastal mesas and where stratus nears terrain in the western valleys. Clouds and vis restrictions clearing over land areas 15-18Z, though there is a 50-60% chance that CIGS/reduced vis will continue along the immediate coast through the afternoon, especially in San Diego County. Stratus will begin to spread 5-10 mi inland after 07/02Z. Bases will closer to 300-600 ft MSL with widespread vis below 3 SM tonight into Monday morning. Mountains/Deserts...SCT cumulus with bases 12,000-15,000 feet MSL over the mountain crests likely again 18-01Z this afternoon. Otherwise, mostly clear skies with unrestricted VIS expected through Monday morning. && .MARINE... Fog with visibility 1-3 nm along the nearshore waters persisting through late this morning and again tonight into late Monday morning. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected through Thursday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Monday for Coachella Valley-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Deserts-San Diego County Valleys-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning-Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills. Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Monday for Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Diego County Mountains. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...PG AVIATION/MARINE...SS