Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA
818 FXUS66 KSGX 072159 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 159 PM PST Fri Feb 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Light rain along the coastal slopes and misty/foggy conditions will gradually clear out by this evening with drier and a little warmer days for Saturday and Sunday. There is a 20 to 35 percent chance for lighter precipitation Monday night into Tuesday. A much more significant precipitation event continues to appear more likely for late Wednesday through late Friday, with the greatest chances Thursday into Friday. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... Today and This Weekend... Rainy, misty, and cloudy conditions continue this afternoon but will gradually clear late this afternoon into this evening. Many locations in San Diego County have seen around 0.1-0.25 inches in the last 12 hours with locations closer to 0.5-1 inch in the northern Inland Empire and Orange County, with spots along the coastal slopes of the San Bernardino Mountains seeing 0.75-1.5 inches of much needed rain. Additional rainfall amounts will be largely negligible outside of 0.1-0.25 inches along coastal slopes through this evening. Snow levels currently near 7,000ft fall closer to 5,000ft tonight, but as precipitation winds down, not much snow should fall. While flakes are possible, snowfall accumulations will be limited. Much drier conditions follow for Saturday and Sunday. Gusty west winds continue to blow in the deserts and along the desert mountain slopes with widespread gusts to 25-35 mph and localized gusts up to 45-55 mph. These winds gradually subside later this evening. Early Next Week (Monday and Tuesday)... As a trough passes overhead Monday into Tuesday, noticeably cooler conditions are expected. This disturbance could support some rain showers Monday night into Tuesday. Overall there is about a 20-35 percent chance of precipitation but the best chances are focused in San Diego County. Snow levels will be around 4500-5500ft, bringing some snow shower chances to the San Diego County Mountains. Late Next week... Confidence continues to gradually increase for a much more significant storm late next week. The general time frame is late Wednesday through late Friday with the greatest chances Thursday night into Friday. Both the GFS ensembles and ECMWF ensembles are in fairly good agreement for a 6-7 day time range and is definitelyworth noting. Widespread precipitation is appearing likely and could be one of the more substantial rain/mountain snow events of the season. There remains plenty of uncertainty and plenty of time for the forecast to change, so stay tuned for updates. && .AVIATION... 072130Z...Coast/Valleys/Mountains(coastal slopes)...ISO-SCT -SHRA will continue this afternoon for inland valleys and coastal slope regions, becoming more localized overnight. Persistent low clouds and fog hanging on at some TAF sites this afternoon. Confidence moderate on this improving from north to south by later this afternoon. Cigs rising by this evening 1000- 2000 ft MSL in BKN cigs for most areas, though parts of the LA Basin may scatter by early evening. Vis reduced 1-3SM in -SHRA. Cigs rising near 2000-4000 ft MSL this evening into Saturday morning. Confidence low to moderate on clearing time, but clouds should start to scatter out sometime around 18-20Z Saturday with dry weather. Mountains(desert slopes)/Deserts...High clouds at or above 20,000 ft MSL will continue over the region today. Southwest to west winds gusting 25-40 kt will continue over the ridges extending into the deserts and desert foothills in continuing through the late evening. This will lead to moderate up/downdrafts. Winds weakening after 06Z Sat. && .MARINE... Northwest winds with gusts near 15 to 20 knots through early evening, afternoon, with gusts 15-20 knots possible in the outer coastal waters and near San Clemente Island. There is a 20-30 percent chance of gusts exceeding 21 knots. Otherwise, no hazardous weather is expected through Tuesday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Munyan AVIATION/MARINE...APR