585
FXUS63 KSGF 081930
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
130 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold conditions will occur across the area into tonight.

- Snow is likely across the area Thursday evening into Friday.

- Generally dry conditions and closer to normal temperatures for
  this time of year in the Saturday through Tuesday time period.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery
and upper level analysis continue to show northwest flow over
the forecast area with a strong cut-off low over the Baja
region. Visible imagery shows a large area of stratocumulus
across the forecast area which is leading to some scattered
flurries. A large area of cold high pressure was centered over
the plains with temperatures here over the Missouri Ozarks and
extreme southeast Kansas still in the teens to mid 20s.

Rest of the afternoon: The stratocu deck will persist in the
afternoon with scattered flurries continuing with no
accumulation expected. Temperatures will likely not get out of
the 20s this afternoon, with the best potential over south
central MO near the AR border.

Tonight: Another cold night is in store as the area of high
pressure drifts overhead. The stratocu should clear out and with
a light wind we should dip back into the single digits to teens.

Thursday: The upper level closed low should begin to open up and
start to eject eastward. A surface low should start to develop
along the Gulf coast of Texas. Upper energy and jet dynamics
should start to move into the area by late in the day with some
light snow developing during the late afternoon in the southwest
portion of the CWA.

Thursday night-Friday snow potential: The surface low will
continue to track along the Gulf coast with the upper wave
tracking east into the plains. Upper energy will continue to
push across the area. RAP showing the potential for some
frontogenetic forcing at 700 and 850 mb across the area with the
potential for some southwest to northeast snow bands. With the
surface low so far to the south, the main snow accumulations
over our area will likely be within these narrow snow bands and
there may be several that set up. Unfortunately, while we can
predict a generalized area where these mesoscale bands may set
up, it is difficult to pinpoint exactly where they might occur.
Outside of these narrow bands, snowfall amounts will be less
than the overall forecast, and within these bands, it may be
slightly higher totals. We will likely be going with a winter
weather advisory from around 5 pm Thursday through 6 pm Friday
to account for the accumulating snow. Generalized snow amounts
over the area will be in the 2 to 4 inch range, however may be
lower outside of the main snow bands and slightly higher within
the bands.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

After this system exits the area, we should continue to see
lower than normal temperatures persist, however they will not be
as bitterly cold as we`ve had the past few days. Lows in the
teens to 20s and highs in the 30s are expected.

An upper level wave Saturday night into Sunday will bring cloud
cover to the area, but the majority of any precipitation should
remain north of the area.

After this wave passes through, temperatures will begin to
moderate to more normal towards the middle to end of next week
with little to no precipitation.



&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1115 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

A low stratus deck has gradually developed over southwestern
Missouri this morning, leading to MVFR ceilings at KSGF. Clouds
at KBBG and KJLN are more scattered at this time, so ceilings
remain VFR at those sites. The stratus deck should dissipate
around sunset. Winds shift from northwesterly to southerly
beginning this evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Kenny