991
FXUS63 KSGF 241103
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
603 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near average temperatures and mostly dry for today, with only
  limited chances for light showers (<25% chance).

- Below average temperatures expected through next week with highs
  in the 70s to lower 80s.

- 30-50% rain chances Monday and Tuesday for the southwestern
  corner of Missouri and southeastern corner of Kansas. Then,
  30-70% rain chances for much of the Ozarks Thursday and
  onwards.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 212 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Upper level analysis and water vapor imagery show an amplified ridge
axis over the western U.S. with low pressure over Ontario and a deep
trough over the central U.S. with northwest flow from Alberta into
the mid Mississippi valley. An upper level jet streak was noted over
the northern plains into the upper Mississippi valley. At the
surface, a secondary cold front was beginning to shift into far
southern Missouri. A dry air mass in place has prevented any
precipitation over our CWA with this front.

Today and tonight...we`ll see a strong upper shortwave drop from the
northern plains across the upper Mississippi valley and into the
Great Lakes region. The upper jet streak will drop into the mid
Mississippi valley and strengthen by tonight. The colder and drier
air mass will dive south and our CWA will be on the dividing line of
the coldest/driest air in our north and east and better moisture in
our southwest. Lift from the upper level energy and jet will
interact with the better moisture late tonight with some shower
potential over our far southwest CWA by early Monday morning.

Temperatures should range from near 80 in the northeast CWA to the
upper 80s in the southwest, with lows tonight from the mid 50s in
the northeast to the low 60s in the southwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 212 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Precipitation chances then increase over the southwest half of the
CWA on Monday as the jet energy moves over the area and interacts
with the better moisture over the southwest CWA. While the majority
of the rainfall will occur to our south and southwest, probabilistic
data suggest a 33% to 70% chance of a half inch or more of rain in
the southwest 1/4 of the CWA and a 10% to 45% chance for an inch or
more in these same locations through Tuesday.

High temperatures on Monday will be in the low to mid 70s...well
below our normals in the mid to upper 80s for this time of year with
lows on Monday night in the low to mid 50s.

Rain should come to an end on Tuesday as the upper level trough
sweeps through. We`ll remain in northwest flow aloft and surface
high pressure will be over the area on Tuesday night as lows dip
into the low to mid 50s. Some record lows Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning will be possible at VIH/UNO(see climate section).

We`ll maintain precipitation chances again by Thursday into next
weekend with many solutions showing at least a little bit of rain
over the area. However there is a large variance in the ensemble
data with respect to QPF at this time, so our confidence in amounts
is low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 602 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

For the 12z TAFS, showers over eastern KS expected to dissipate
as they move into the drier air over the area. Expecting VFR
conditions through the period with a light northerly wind at 10
kts or less.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 212 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025


Record Low Temperatures:

August 26:
KVIH: 50/2015
KUNO: 50/1958

August 27:
KJLN: 52/1962
KVIH: 51/1971
KUNO: 52/2010

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg
CLIMATE...Lindenberg