662
FXUS63 KSGF 172342
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
542 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A low pressure system will bring rain showers and a few
  thunderstorms along with windy conditions to the area
  tonight into Monday evening.

- Some record warm low temperatures will be possible on Monday.
  See climate section for details.

- Below normal temperatures and dry conditions will occur across
  the area during the middle and end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

Warm conditions are occurring across the area this afternoon, as
early afternoon temperatures are in the upper 60s to the lower
70s currently under cloudy skies. Lows tonight into Monday
morning will only cool into the upper 50s to the lower 60s and
with some record warm lows possible across the area. Highs on
Monday will once again warm into the upper 60s to around 70
degrees.

An upper level trough is currently located across the
southwestern U.S. this afternoon. The trough will lift north
across the southern Plains tonight and across the region Monday
into Monday night. An area of surface low pressure will also
move north out of the southern Plains tonight and across Kansas
on Monday and into Iowa Monday night. Ahead of the low warm air
advection and lift will overspread the area from north to south
late this evening into Monday morning. Showers are expected to
develop within this band of lift ahead of the low. Instability
will be limited but there may be just enough for a few embedded
rumbles of thunder within the showers tonight into Monday
morning. Coverage in this activity will be better to the west
of Highway 65 and especially west of I-49 closer to the low.
Precipitable water values will increase to 1.5 to 1.75 inches
tonight into Monday, with locally heavy rainfall possible
especially west of Highway 65 where the better coverage in the
convection will occur. As the surface low lifts north on Monday
the rain will also move north and out of the area with a break
in the rain developing Monday morning.

The pressure gradient will tighten across the region east of the
Low on Monday. Gusty winds will develop Monday morning and
continue into the early evening hours as the pressure gradient
tightens across the area. Southerly winds of 20 to 25 mph with
gusts up to 35 to 45 mph are expected. The strongest winds will
be across extreme southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri
closer to the surface low. Clouds will be over the region which
could limit how deep the mixing occurs tomorrow but with strong
low level winds gusts up to 35 to 45 mph are expected at times
Monday.

As the surface low lifts to the northeast across Kansas Monday
a cold front will move east across the area Monday afternoon and
evening. A line of showers and storms are expected to develop
along the front as forcing occurs along the front. Instability
will be weak across the area with 200 to 400J/kg of MUCAPE, with
weaker low level CAPE. With the strong low level wind fields
some strong to marginally severe storms will be possible with
gusty winds the main risk. Wind shear will be strong, but low
level instability will be weak and cannot support a balance to
slight shear dominate line. Therefore the tornado potential is
overall low due to the limited low level instability. The
showers and storms will end from west to east Monday evening.
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible but the line will
overall move fairly quickly to the east.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

Slightly cooler conditions will move into the area on Tuesday
behind the frontal passage Monday. Highs Tuesday will warm into
the upper 50s to the middle 60s.

Another upper level trough will move through the region later
Tuesday into Wednesday. A drier air mass will be in place and
models continue to trend dry with the passage of this trough.
Below normal temperatures will occur Wednesday into Friday as a
colder air mass advects into the region behind the trough. Highs
in the 40s and lowers in the upper 20s to the lower 30s are
expected Wednesday through Friday. An upper level ridge will
then build east into the Plains by next weekend returning
temperatures to closer to normal for this time of year to the
area for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 524 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

An MVFR cloud deck is pushing in from the southwest ahead of a
low pressure system that will bring showers across the region
overnight and through the day Monday. Lift will overspread the
area from south to north, bringing rain to the airfields with
lower ceilings and visibilities. MVFR to IFR conditions may be
reached with this activity after 6Z. There will be a break in
the precipitation throughout the morning before the cold front
swings through from the west, bringing another, more brief
round of rain. Winds will also pick up throughout the period,
gusting in excess of 30 kts out of the southeast by morning.
Winds become more southerly by the end of the TAF period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 137 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

Date /Station   Record Warmest     Forecast Lowest
                    Lows            Temperatures

Monday 11/18

Springfield        59/1942               59

Joplin             64/1942               58

West Plains        53/1991               57

Vichy              58/1899               56

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Nelson
CLIMATE...Lindenberg