466
FXUS63 KSGF 110823
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
323 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler today and tonight. Lows will drop into the middle 30s
  to around 40 tonight/Saturday morning. Patchy frost is
  possible across the low-lying areas of the eastern Ozarks
  tonight into Saturday morning.

- Warm and windy conditions will occur on Sunday, with wind
  gusts up to 45 mph at times.

- Showers and thunderstorms chances return during the middle to
  end of next week. Still questions on the exact timing of the
  system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

An upper level trough is currently moving south through the
region early this morning. A few sprinkles will remain possible
during the early morning hours across the eastern Ozarks today.

A cooler air mass will move over the area today. Highs will
range from the upper 50s across central Missouri to the middle
60s across extreme southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri
this afternoon. Winds will gusts up to around 25 mph at times
today.

Lows tonight into Saturday morning will drop
into the middle 30s to around 40. The coldest temperatures will
occur across the eastern Ozarks. Some patchy frost will be
possible in low-lying protected areas Saturday morning.

An upper level ridge and warmer air mass will start to move
into the area from the west on Saturday. Highs will range from
the middle 60s across the eastern Ozarks to the middle 70s
across extreme southeastern Kansas as the warm air advects from
west to east. Southerly winds will return with gusts up to
around 25 mph Saturday mainly west of Highway 65.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

A warmer air mass will continue to advect into the area on
Sunday along sith gusty winds. Highs will warm into the upper
70s to the middle 80s Sunday afternoon. There is some potential
that highs warm into the upper 80s as a few of the models show
in spots. Windy conditions will occur on Sunday as gusts of 30
to 45 mph occur at times. The strongest winds will be along and
west of Highway 65. The NBM probabilities continue to show an
80 to 100% chance for gusts over 30 mph, with a 30 to 60% chance
for gusts over 40 mph and 20 to 40% for gusts greater the 45 mph
across portions of the area west of Highway 65. Looking at
forecast soundings and mixing potential, gusts of 30 up to
45 mph seem quite reasonable at times.

A cold front will then move through the area Sunday night into
Monday morning. Some sprinkles and maybe a few light rain
showers will be possible along the front. Rainfall amounts will
be light for any locations that receive any rainfall with this
front. A cooler air mass will move into the area behind the
front for Monday and Tuesday as highs warm into the middle 60s
to around 70 both afternoons, which will be closer to normal for
this time of year.

The ensemble models then show another upper level trough and
front moving through the region during the middle to end of the
week. There remain differences in the timing of the system
between the models. Some bring the system in as early as
Wednesday with some as late as Thursday night into Friday,
with others in between. Showers and a few storms will likely
occur across at least portions of the area when the system does
move through. Since there is still uncertainty on the timing
with the track of the system, there are chances for showers and
a few storms from Wednesday into Friday of next week, but it
will not rain during this entire period--just when the front
moves through. Temperatures during the middle and end of next
week could also range greatly based on the timing of the system.
A slower track could bring highs in the 70s and 80s during the
middle of the week, but a faster track highs may only warm into
the 60s and 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

VFR conditions are expected across the area tonight through the
day on Friday. Winds will be light and variable from the west to
northwest tonight and will become gusty out of the north
northwest Friday morning and will continue through the afternoon
hours. Winds will become like again Friday evening. Some clouds
around 5kft Friday afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise