428
FXUS63 KSGF 301114
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
614 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Generally dry and not as hot today.

- Heat and humidity return on Tuesday through Thursday.

- Thunderstorm chances increase Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Upper level analysis
and water vapor imagery show the main jet stream across the
northern 1/3 of the CONUS with a shortwave trough enterning the
northwest coast, upper ridging over the Rockies and high plains
and another trough pushing east across the Great Lakes. Upper
high pressure was located over the lower half of the CONUS,
with some embedded upper energy over the central and southern
plains. This along with frontal boundary draped across the area
and afternoon/evening instability was responsible for the
earlier convection which was mostly decaying or pushing out of
the area. High PW values and slow storm movement led to some
high precipitation totals in parts of the area and some likely
flooding.

Rest of tonight and today: High pressure at the surface will
continue to shift southeast and push the frontal boundary south
of the area. Some higher dewpoints and instability may still be
present on the south and southwest fringes of the CWA and we do
have some low end pops(15-20%) going in these areas today, but
most of the area should be cooler and dry today. Highs should
range from the low 80s in the north to the upper 80s in the far
southwest.

Tonight into Monday: The upper level ridge axis will shift
overhead tonight with the surface high starting to move into the
Great Lakes into the OH/TN valley. Most of the area will still
have the cooler and drier air in place, however winds will start
to become more southeasterly and moisture will begin to return
northward in the western portion of the CWA. Shortwave energy to
the northwest of the upper ridge axis and the low level jet
should remain west and north of the area and we are expecting
most if not all of the convection tonight to be northwest of the
CWA. On Monday, the upper energy will begin to shift east into
the northern and central plains. Instability and moisture should
remain to our west and the area should generally remain dry.
Lows tonight should be from the mid 50s in parts of the eastern
Ozarks to near 70 in the far southwest. Highs on Monday should
range from the upper 70s in parts of the eastern Ozarks to
around 90 in the far western CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

The main storm system should keep precipitation well to the
north Monday night over the upper Mississippi valley with upper
level ridging overhead. Moisture will definitely be on the
increase over the area with southerly flow from the Gulf
returning.

Heat and humidity return on Tuesday: Low level warm advection
will be in full swing on Tuesday with ensembles showing 850mb
temperatures in the 22-25 deg C range. While instability should
increase quite a bit, especially over the western half of the
CWA, there should be quite a thermal cap in place over the area
and the front should remain northwest of the area with little to
no other forcing expected at this time, precipitation chances
look low at this time on Tuesday. Hot temperatures should return
though and we are looking at highs from the low to mid 90s and
heat index values from the mid 90s in the east to aorund 107
degrees in parts of the west. We may need a heat advisory in the
west for Tuesday in later forecasts.

The front will continue to sag south Tuesday night into
Wednesday with thundestorm chances increasing over the area.
Highest pops (35-50%) will be over the north on Wednesday with
(25-35%) chances in the south. Temperature and heat index values
will be highly dependent on how the convection pans out, but we
are going with low to upper 90s temperatures on Wednesday with
upper 90s (north) to around 110 heat index(south).

With a more westerly flow aloft, the front will likely slow down
or become stalled over the area late in the week and will be the
focus for more organized convection from Wednesday night into
Friday(generally 30-50% pops at this time). A lot will depend
on mesoscale features which will not be able to be resolved
until much closer to that timeframe.

Hottest temperatures and heat index values look to be from
Tuesday through Thursday where a heat advisory may be needed in
future forecasts, and then slightly cooler Friday through the
weekend, with temperatures dropping back into the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 612 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

For the 12z TAFS, some MVFR cloud cover has developed behind the
frontal boundary which was over far southern MO and may affect
the terminal sites through the morning. Thereafter, generally
VFR ceilings are expected with a gradual veering wind from the
northeast to east.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024


Record High Temperatures:

July 2:
KSGF: 100/1933
KJLN: 103/2011

July 3:
KSGF: 98/2011
KJLN: 100/2011


Record Low Temperatures:

July 1:
KVIH: 56/1951


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 29:
KSGF: 80/1936

July 2:
KSGF: 76/1933

July 3:
KSGF: 77/2018

July 4:
KSGF: 78/1901

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg
CLIMATE...Nelson