063
FXUS63 KSGF 162321
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
621 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Moderate (4 of 5) Risk for severe weather this afternoon,
  mainly along and east of Highway 65 and before sunset. Very
  large hail to the size of softballs, damaging winds up to 80
  mph, and tornadoes will be possible.

- 50-70% chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday night
  into Sunday morning. A Slight(2 of 5) Risk exists for a few
  thunderstorms may become capable of producing wind gusts up to
  60 mph and hail up to the size of quarters.

- The unsettled weather pattern will continue across the area early
  next week. This includes the potential for strong to severe
  thunderstorms in addition to localized heavy rainfall and
  flooding. Uncertainty remains in the exact details.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

This afternoon into early evening: A significant air mass
change occurred this morning across this Missouri Ozarks as a
warm front lifted back into the area that brought dew points
back into to the upper 60s to low 70s and temperatures have
risen into the low to mid 80s. This has caused significant
instability to develop ahead of a cold front that was pushing
west to east into the area. Severe storms quickly developed
around midday ahead of the cold front and continue to quickly
lift east- northeast into eastern sections of the CWA. The
atmosphere is prime for very large hail with the instability and
shear combination over the area. Hodographs have supported
splitting supercells which is what we`ve seen so far across the
area. While we are not seeing much in the way of backed surface
winds, we can`t rule out a tornadoes with the strong low level
shear. The storms should quickly push east of the area between
21z and 00z and the severe weather risk with this round of
storms should come to an end for our CWA.

Rest of tonight: We should clear out behind the frontal boundary
tonight as drier air moves moves in with dew points in the 40s
for most of the area. Overnight lows should dip into the mid
50s.

Saturday into Saturday night: Upper level flow remains out of
the west-southwest and will bring in another wave of energy by
late in the day into Saturday night. Moisture and instability
will begin to creep back into the area from the southwest and
we`ll see the chance for thunderstorms increase (50-70%). Some
strong to severe storms will be possible, mainly over the
southwest quadrant of the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Sunday-Monday: Convection from Saturday night will linger into
Sunday morning. Upper level flow will remain out of the
southwest ahead of the main trough still to the west of the
area. A frontal boundary will be west to east across the area
and we should see low level winds increase during the evening
with the approach of the upper level wave. Thunderstorm chances
will increase again during the evening (70-80%), especially in
the northern CWA north of the boundary. Strong to severe storms
will be possible along with very heavy rain and possibly
flooding with any training of storms. This activity should push
east of the area on Monday morning. ADditional development could
occur on Monday afternoon if sufficient atmospheric recovery
takes place during the day.

Monday night - Tuesday: As the main upper wave begins to push
into the area, additional thunderstorms are expected to develop
Monday night into Tuesday. Severe weather chances will be
conditional on how much instability can develop. Heavy rain will
again be likely and with several rounds of heavy rain and
several inches of rain possible, flooding will be possible.

Wednesday - Thursday: We should finally end the thunderstorm and
severe weather chances as the upper wave shifts off to the east
of the area. High pressure builds into the area along with a
drier air mass. Highs behind this main wave should drop back
into the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 619 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

VFR through the period with westerly winds continuing to
diminish through the evening. Winds will remain
south/southwesterly through Saturday around 10 knots or less.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Soria