686
FXUS63 KSGF 052314
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
614 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs in the 80s to low 90s through the weekend. Record
  warmth possible.

- No measurable rain chances in the forecast through next week.
  Minimal chances for rainfall through mid-October.

- Fire Weather conditions will be monitored as very dry air and
  no significant rain is expected through mid-October which
  will continue to dry fuels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 131 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

The primary hazard expected over the next couple weeks will focus on
fire weather concerns. Please see the fire weather section below for
more details.

As of 130 PM, visible satellite imagery showed clear skies
across the Missouri Ozarks as surface high pressure continues
over the region. Observations showed temperatures in the
low 80s over portions of the eastern Ozarks, and the mid to
upper 80s elsewhere. Highs are expected to climb a few degrees
higher over the next few hours, topping out in the mid to upper
80s east of Hwy 65, and into the low 90s west of Hwy 65. This
is 10-15 degrees above average, and could bring record to near
record afternoon highs for our climate sites (see Climate
section below). For tonight, overnight lows will remain in the
low 60s across the entire forecast area.

A cold front is progged to push through the region on Sunday,
bringing slightly cooler temperatures behind the front. Afternoon
highs however will still top off in the upper 70s to mid 80s,
with the higher end of that range along the MO/AR border.
Despite the "cooler" temperatures, highs will still be 10-15
degrees above the climatological normal for this time of year.
With the passage of the cold front, a much drier airmass will
push over the area, with RH values dropping into the 20-30%
range.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 131 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

No significant changes were made to the forecast in the long term,
with dry conditions continuing over the region. A warming trend is
expected to occur throughout the week, with highs ranging in
the 70s and into the low 80s Monday and Tuesday warming up to
the upper 70s to mid 80s by Friday.

Looking ahead towards the middle of October, the Climate Prediction
Center is highlighting the entire area in a 80-90% chance of below
normal precipitation and a 50-70% chance of above normal
temperatures (8-14 Day Outlook through October 18). With both CPC
and ensembles pointing to drier than normal conditions and minimal
rain chances, drought conditions are expected to either persist or
worsen, so will need to continue monitoring. Towards the end of the
month and into November, CPC drops the chances of below normal
precipitation to about 50-55%.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 611 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

For the 00z TAFS, a cold front will push through late tonight
into Sunday morning. With a dry air mass in place however, VFR
conditions will persist through the period. Wind will become
light and variable as the front moves into the area and then
becomes northerly around 10 kts behind the front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 134 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Looking at the joint probability of wind gusts >20 mph and Relative
Humidity <30%, models continue to show less than 5% chance through
at least the middle of October. This would keep any critical fire
weather and red flag risk low at this time, however elevated fire
weather potential continues to exist. With the current dry fuels and
additional drying fuels, we`ll continue to assess any red flag
potential closely.

Through this weekend:

Dry and abnormally hot conditions will continue, with record to
near highs possible each day.

Rest of today...In addition to the abnormally warm temperatures
so far today, relative humidity values have continued to drop
throughout the early afternoon, with observations at 130 PM
showing RHs in the 30-40% range over a majority of the area
(with the exception of the eastern Ozarks currently in the 50%
range). This, coupled with breezy conditions of 7-14 mph
sustained winds gusting up to 15-20 mph has led to elevated fire
weather conditions continuing through the remainder of the
afternoon and evening hours, primarily west of Hwy 65.

Sunday...Elevated fire weather is expected to expand across
much of the area, with north-northwest sustained winds of 10-15
mph gusting to 15-20 mph. Minimum RH will dip to 20-30% across
much of the area and 25-35% across south- central Missouri.

Monday through Saturday (October 7-12):

No rain is expected during this period. Temperatures will be
slightly cooler but still above normal with highs in the 70s to
mid 80s. Daily dry minimum RH values will range between 20-35%,
with a 10% chance of winds >20 mph west of Interstate 49 on
Saturday (Oct 12), but no other notable wind concerns.

1-2 weeks (October 13-19):

Confidence in specifics decreases with time, but a majority of
model data shows little to no rain through this time period. RH
values are more difficult to assess this far out, but a
majority of ensemble members show a dry airmass remaining in
place and >50% probabilities for daily RH values dropping below
30%. Hard to give many details related to winds, but right now
fewer than 10% of ensemble model members show winds >=25 mph any
of the days in this period. Still, we will be watching closely
given continued drying of fuels.

We`re starting to see leaf fall begin in some areas which will
begin to add to fuel load. Additionally, first fall frost and
freezes occur in October with middle to late month the average
time of occurrence across the Ozarks.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 140 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2024

Record High Temperatures:

October 5:
KSGF: 93/1981
KJLN: 91/1963
KVIH: 91/1897
KUNO: 91/1981

October 6:
KUNO: 87/2018

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melto
LONG TERM...Melto
AVIATION...Lindenberg
FIRE WEATHER...Titus
CLIMATE...Titus