211
FXUS63 KSGF 121126
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
626 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The is a 30-40% chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms
  tonight to the south of I-44.

- A strong system bring the potential for severe thunderstorms
  on Friday, mainly along and east of the Highway 63.

- Additionally, the strong system supports strong non-
  thunderstorm wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph, with areas of
  elevated to significant fire weather conditions into Friday
  evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

The latest surface analysis was showing a front located just north
of the CWA with temperatures with temperatures in the upper 50s and
lower 60s early this morning.  The HREF is showing this front
dropping to the south into the northern part of the CWA today, but I
do not expect it to have much of an impact on temperatures with
highs climbing back into the upper 70s to near 80 degrees this
afternoon under a partly to mostly sunny sky.  We will see an
increase in moisture this afternoon the HREF showing an upper low
moving across northern Arkansas tonight.  Kept with a chance (20-
40%) of showers and isolated thunderstorms over the southern half of
the CWA tonight associated with this system. Thursday continues to
look dry with highs climbing back into the upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

The model guidance continues to consistent in showing a deep low
moving out the Central Plains into the Upper Midwest late this week.
This will bring several hazards to the area that we will need to
watch include severe weather, strong winds, and fire weather (see
the fire weather section). The gradient winds will increase on
Friday with wind gusts of 45 mph or higher at time ahead of dryline
that will move through the area during the afternoon.   There will
also be the potential for a few severe thunderstorms during the
afternoon ahead of the dryline, particularly over the eastern CWA
where the low level moisture will be higher.   While the moisture
will be relatively modest, very impressive low level and deep level
shear and strong ascent along the boundary will favor quickly
developing thunderstorms.  Damaging winds and and a few tornadoes
along with large hail will be possible with the severe storms over
the the eastern part of the CWA on Friday.

The front will move through early on Saturday bringing temperatures
back down into the 50s and 60s over the weekend before they rebound
into the 70s early next week.  Mainly dry weather is expected over
the weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

VFR conditions and light winds will persist through the TAF
period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

The humidity will drop into the 25 to 35 percent range today, but
winds will generally stay under 10 mph with the presence of the
front.  This will be also the case on Thursday.  Fire danger concern
will increase on Friday as southerly sustained winds will increase
into the 25 to 35 mph range with gusts of 45 mph or great at times.
Relative humidity values over far southwest Missouri and southeast
Kansas are forecast to drop to around 25%, but confidence in the
RH forecast is low this far out and will need to continue to be
monitored.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LSX
LONG TERM...LSX
AVIATION...Titus
FIRE WEATHER...LSX