433
FXUS63 KSGF 271954
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
254 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Confidence remains high for above normal temperatures into the
  coming weekend, with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above
  normal. Highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s for today and in
  the 70s to around 80 into Sunday.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances (50-80%) return through the
  weekend. Confidence is increasing in severe weather occuring
  across the central Plains and the Ozarks late Saturday night
  into Sunday.

- Periods of additional rain and storms chances then continue
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

An area of surface low pressure in the plains was swinging a
warm front through the Ozarks this afternoon. This will continue
into this evening as the low and continues to slide to the
north. With warm air and moisture advection ongoing,
temperatures the upper 70s to lower 80s, instability will
increase as well. This may allow for scattered elevated strong
to severe storms to develop along the front as it lift north
with the main area of concern across portions of central into
northern Missouri. These storms may be able to take advantage
increasing instability (400-1000j/kg) thanks to the warm and
moisture advection. The primary concerns for any storms that
become severe will be large hail though is a storm can become
more surface based a localized wind gust threat could occur.

Temperatures will reach into upper 70s to low 80s this
afternoon, with only a 4 degree difference between the 25th
and 75th percentiles. However, cloud cover will impact the
afternoon temperatures- regardless, temperatures will be 10-15
degrees above normal for this time of year. This warming will
continue overnight tonight and through the day Friday.

Lows tonight will only fall into the middle to upper 50s thanks
to the southerly flow. Highs Friday will again climb into the
70s to around 80 degrees with increasing cloud cover from
southwest to northeast impacting day time highs. This will bring
warmer temperatures for central Missouri verses far southwestern
Missouri.

With the transition to upper level southwesterly flow, moisture
and warm air advection will continue Friday. Surface low
pressure will begin to develop in the plains once again but
there is limited forcing through the day Friday into Friday
night for anything other than a stray shower. The best locations
for this to occur would be along and near the Arkansas state
line and towards the eastern Ozarks into Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

The upper level flow will remain southwesterly with a deeper
trough pushing through the western CONUS towards the region
Saturday night and Sunday. An associated surface low mentioned
before will develop on the lee side of the Rockies, pushing
northeast and dragging a cold front through the area. Synoptic
models have begun to see some better agreement in timing and
areas impacts.

One item of uncertainty is the severe potential initiation
late Saturday night, as several models continue to disagree,
with capping potentially hindering convection until after 09Z
Sunday. As the surface low reaches northwest MO, a strong low
level jet is expected to develop, which could lead to convective
development beginning in eastern Kansas. If these storms
develop, some could become strong to marginally severe, with
large hail currently the primary hazard. SPC has issued a
marginal (1/5) risk for areas north of the I-44 corridor to
account for this potential from late Saturday night into early
Sunday morning.

Synoptic models for the timing and progression of strong to
severe storm development Sunday are coming into better
agreement. Models progress the front through the Ozarks from
12z Sunday through Sunday afternoon finally moving east of the
region by Sunday afternoon and evening. This brings the best
potential for strong to severe storms around the noon hour
(which is not the most conducive timing for severe weather).
Continued to go with NBM guidance with 50-80% pops, however
we`ll changes may occur to where the highest rainfall potential
may occur.

Finally, Monday looks mainly quiet, but additional showers and
storm chances will be in the offing through much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

A warm front will move through the region today with southerly
winds continuing through the next 24 hours behind the frontal
passage. Surface winds will be gusty (20-30mph) at times through
the period. Cloud cover will remain VFR with middle to high
scattered to broken clouds. No impacts to visibilities are
forecast.

Low level winds shear will develop around sunrise Friday and
continue into midday as the low level jet increases in strength
and the boundary layer begins to mix.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch