908
FXUS63 KSGF 101710
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1210 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible
  today, mainly along and north of Highway 60 (30-50%) with the
  better chances north of Highway 54 (60-80%).

- Above average high temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s
  are forecast today through next week, but with decreasing
  confidence toward the end of the forecast period. Mainly
  looking at dry weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Cluster of thunderstorms currently over Northern MO and southern
IA is focused on the leading edge of an upper jet streak, the
nose of the low level jet, and in an area of warm air advection.
All these parameters will be weakening with time and southern
extent today, but still could see 60-80% probabilities
along/north of Highway 54 this morning, then roughly 30-50%
chances along/north of Hwy 60 this morning and afternoon. South
of I-44, chances are less than 20%. No severe weather is
expected.

Could see some fog tonight, mainly along and east of Highway
65, with portions of central MO possibly seeing dense fog.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

As has been a bit of a tradition around here as of late, a ridge
builds over the area this weekend and possibly persist through
the rest of the long term in some form or another. This will
lead to even warmer temperatures over the weekend with highs in
the mid 80s.

There is potential for the pattern to be marginally disrupted by
an upper trough pushing in from the west, but that should do
little more than lead to some cooler potential Monday and
Tuesday. Currently, the forecast and NBM deterministic high
temps are in the mid 70s to mid 80s (coolest NW) as values are
biased low due to increased cloud cover and 20% chances for rain
over the NW. If the front that may lead to these features does
not make it into the area, then dry weather and mid 80s highs
can be expected.

In general, ensemble data supports the ridge becoming more
established mid to late next week, but with some disagreement
that leads to decreasing confidence with time. The forecast
calls for highs in the low to mid 80s and dry weather Wednesday
and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

A system is sliding through the area early this afternoon,
bringing a shield of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms.
Most of the activity will clear KJLN and KSGF by 18Z, with the
remaining precipitation diminishing into southern Missouri
through mid-afternoon. Brief reduction in visibilities and
ceilings can be expected within this activity. Clouds linger
into the evening, with some scattering through the overnight.
Light and variable winds may support some fog development, but
confidence remains lower in this potential at this time.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Perez