859
FXUS63 KSGF 071123
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
623 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm complex will move through the area this morning.
  Localized flooding and lightning are now the primary concerns
  through 9am. A Flood Watch is in effect until noon for areas
  southwest of Springfield.

- Dense Fog Advisory until 9am for areas northeast of
  Springfield for fog reducing visibility to less than one
  quarter mile.

- Slight risk for severe storms Sunday afternoon and evening
  with large hail and damaging winds. Highest chances north of
  Interstate 44.

- Drier weather through early to mid next week with higher rain
  chances returning at the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper
air analysis shows another shortwave moving into the Central
Plains. A 30-40kt low level jet across Texas and Oklahoma was
feeding another thunderstorm complex. This complex was currently
riding an instability gradient that runs just south of Wichita
into northeast Oklahoma. This gradient then barely clips areas
south of a Joplin to Cassville line. MU CAPE in this area is in
the 1000-2000j/kg range. 0-6km shear is in the 40-50kt range and
0-3km shear is around 30kts. PW values increase drastically as
you head southwest of Springfield with 1.3in at SGF, increasing
to 1.9in in northeast Oklahoma. The actual stationary front was
located just south of the area. Areas northeast of Springfield
have clear skies and dense fog has formed across the Lake of the
Ozarks and Rolla areas.

This Morning: We will continue to monitor the thunderstorm
complex that will ride the gradient into far southeast Kansas
and far southwest Missouri during the 3am-7am time frame. While
the higher instability will remain southwest of the area, we
will remain close enough for a damaging wind threat and low
tornado threat (brief spinup) on the northern part of the
bowing structure near the bookend. A Tornado Watch is in effect
until 7am for Cherokee County, Kansas and McDonald County
Missouri for this threat of a brief spinup. Confidence is low
in the evolution of this bowing system and additional counties
could be added to the north if needed.

Soils across the area are fairly saturated and even with a
progressive system, rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 2 inches could
cause additional flooding. We have issued a short fuse Flood
Watch for far SW Missouri and SE Kansas to account for this
potential. This Flood Watch is currently set to expire at noon
and could perhaps be cancelled early as the bulk of the rainfall
will occur during the early to mid morning hours.

The dense fog across central Missouri will likely linger through
sunrise then begin to erode through mid morning, especially as
the rain shield moves in.

This Afternoon through Tonight: While the bulk of the rainfall
will have exited by noon, we will need to watch a mid level vort
max or perhaps a MCV that moves across eastern Kansas and into
northern and central Missouri during the afternoon. Latest HREF
reflectivity paintball plots are showing some shower and
thunderstorm development with this feature across areas east of
Highway 65 and north of I-44 during the afternoon and evening
hours. If enough heating occurs prior then a few strong to
marginally severe storms with large hail and damaging winds could
occur with this however confidence is low. Skies may begin to
clear overnight and we will need to monitor for some fog
potential. Latest HREF is already showing 30-60% probs of vis
less than 0.5 mile across the area. Later updates may need to
increase the fog for tonight into early Sunday morning.

Sunday: After any morning fog/low clouds burn off, attention
will turn to a shortwave and associated cold front that will
move down from the northwest during the afternoon hours. This
front currently looks to move into our northwest counties after
3pm. Latest HREF mean MU CAPE is around 2000-3000j/kg across
southeast Kansas into west central Missouri with about 30-40kts
of 0-6km shear. Forecast high temps in the low to mid 80s and
dewpoints in the middle to upper 60s will aid in this increased
instability. This could favor the development of supercells or
multicell clusters with large hail to the size of golf balls and
damaging winds during the late afternoon and evening hours as
the front moves in. Currently the highest chances for this will
be across southeast Kansas and west central Missouri north of
Interstate 44. Coverage of storms does become less is you go
further south into areas along and south of I-44 therefore pops
are still less than 50 percent.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Monday through Wednesday: The shower and thunderstorm chances
should begin to decrease late Sunday night or early Monday
morning as the front moves south of the area. Ensembles
continue to suggest that the upper low will move into the Great
Lakes with a northwest flow pattern and high pressure which
looks to provide some drier days for the bulk of Monday-
Wednesday. Temperatures look near average with highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s.

End of Next Week: There continues to be a decent signal that
the flow will turn west to southwest towards the end of the
week which would open the door to increasing precip chances,
especially Friday into the weekend. Rain chances have now
increase into the 40-60% range Thursday into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to make their way
through the TAF sites at the beginning of the TAF period with
rain ending by mid to late morning. Current MVFR ceilings and
vis will then improve into VFR for the afternoon and evening.
Fog could develop overnight into Sunday morning. Winds will east
to southeast this morning, becoming westerly this afternoon.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch until noon CDT today for KSZ101.
MO...Flood Watch until noon CDT today for MOZ088-093-101-102.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ056>058-
     069>071-083.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield