996
FXUS63 KSGF 191115
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
615 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight risk for severe thunderstorms south of Interstate 44
  this morning and again tonight 60 mph winds and quarter size
  hail the primary risks.

 -The severe risk Sunday continues to increase with an enhanced
  risk expanded across much of the area. Tornadoes, large hail
  and damaging winds are all possible with this system.

- A Flood Watch is in effect tonight through the weekend.
  Additional rainfall between 2-4 inches, with localized amounts
  up to 7 inches, is expected across most of the area due to
  multiple rounds of heavy rainfall. This will cause an
  increase in creek and river levels. Flooding of low water
  crossings is likely.

- Additional rain chances (40-70%) return Tuesday through
  Thursday of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Through this morning: Ongoing convection is widespread across
the area, but most intense along cold pool outflow which is
southeast of Springfield. That outflow will push southeast of
the CWA, but the front will remain roughly along I-44. Along the
outflow, storms will continue to pose a strong to severe threat
with 1" hail and 60 mph winds into this morning over south-
central MO. Flooding will continue to be a concern across the
area with training convection bring an additional 1-3" (locally
higher) through this morning south of I-44.

Rest of today: Once thee morning storms clear the area, the
rest of today looks fairly quiet with residual flooding but no
additional heavy rainfall until later in the evening. Highs will
range from the mid 50s NW to the mid 70s SE.

Late evening and tonight: Shortwave energy and a strengthening
LLJ will bring another round of strong to severe thunderstorms
and flooding. Similar in nature to Friday evening/night but a
little weaker and focused more to the southeast (mainly
southeast of I-44). Current expectation is for 1" hail and 60
mph winds to be the primary severe threats. Flooding will also
be a concern with an additional 1-3" (locally higher) of
rainfall south of I-44.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Sunday: Severe risk for Sunday continues to increase with SPC
expanding the Enhanced risk area across most of the CWA. This is
in response to models showing the shortwave and resulting
surface low moving just NW of the CWA during the afternoon and
evening. Some uncertainty exists in how warm/unstable we get,
but HREF probabilities for >1,000 J/kg off SBCAPE is around 70%
over most of the area, which increases confidence. Shear
magnitudes and profiles will not be a limiting factor given the
strength of the system and negative tilting of the shortwave.
SSE surface winds with long, arcing hodographs are likely. HREF
probabilities of >60 kts of 0-6km shear is 70-100%. At this
time, a line of storms with embedded supercells is expected to
move west to east through the area from around noon to 8pm.
Advertising golf ball size hail at this time, which may need to
be adjusted if instability increases/decreases. Thunderstorm
winds up to 70 mph are possible given strong wind fields. Even
non- thunderstorm winds are expected to gust to 35-45 mph, or
possibly higher. Tornadoes will also be possible. SPC has a 10%
tornado probability across much of the area, which matches
closely with HREF calibrated tornado probabilities. Will need to
monitor for possible inclusion of strong tornadoes, but at this
time the convection appears to not be isolated enough to
advertise this threat.

Additional rainfall during the day Sunday will not be as much of
an issue since training is less likely. Still, it won`t take
much rainfall on our saturated soils to cause problems.

Next Week: Latest ensemble data continues to be consistent in
bringing additional shortwaves into the area from the
west/southwest Tuesday through Thursday. NBM rainfall probs
continue to increase, especially Thursday and Friday and we
will need to monitor where this rainfall sets up given the heavy
rainfall from this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 608 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue
through the weekend. There will be periods between rounds of
convection, but most will be shorter and less predictable.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Titus