233
FXUS63 KSGF 101138
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
538 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Accumulating snowfall continues through this morning. High
  confidence in travel impacts through the morning commute with
  snow covered roadways.

- Snow ends from west to east through the late morning into the
  afternoon. Forecast snowfall totals of 2 to 4 inches north of
  Interstate 44, and 4 to 7 inches along south of Interstate
  44.

- Below normal temperatures linger through early next week, before
  trending closer to near normal. Little to no precipitation
  chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 230 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

This Morning: Radar depicts widespread snow across the area this
morning with a system lifting through the region. This system is
being supported by strong dynamics aloft, with the area
stationed near the right entrance region of a 130 knot upper-
level jet steak. This additional source of omega is in the
vicinity of the shortwave trough and associated positive
vorticity advection (PVA) lifting out of the Southern Plains.
The surface low with this system remains well displaced across
the southern Mississippi Valley.

While much of the activity remains light in nature, there
continues to be pockets or narrow bands of moderate snowfall,
increasing the intensity and reducing visibilities below one
mile from time to time. Some of this banding has been associated
with 600 to 700 mb frontogenesis. This area of more moderate
snowfall rates (around a half inch a hour) has been observed
along and north of Interstate 44. Expectations are for this
activity and better omega to gradually shift south and east
through early this morning. Efficient snowfall accumulations
have been observed, with support in the 00Z KSGF sounding that
depicted saturation through the dendritic growth zone (-12 to
-18 C). Temperatures remain steady in the upper 20s to around 30
through this morning supporting snow-to- liquid (SLRs) around
11:1 to 14:1. The strongest omega is progged to lift through the
area along and south of Interstate 44 through sunrise this
morning, further supporting efficient snowfall accumulations
during the overnight hours. As for impacts, widespread snow
covered roadways are being observed with the Winter Storm
Severity Index (WSSI) continuing to highlight minor to moderate
travel impacts. Factors limiting any significant impacts include
light winds (no blowing snow/drifting) and no mixed
precipitation types. Nonetheless, confidence is high in travel
impacts through the morning commute.

By later this morning, the area of snow will gradually shift
east. The latest high-res guidance suggests the ending times
west to east through the late morning into the early afternoon.
As the system comes to end, snowfall amounts will vary from
north to south across the area. Forecast snowfall totals along
and north of Interstate 44 are expected to range from 2 to 5
inches, and 4 to 7 inches south of Interstate 44. Highs this
afternoon reach into the lower 30s, supporting some compacting
and melting, especially on area roadways by this afternoon. As a
result, the evening commute is expected to be more slushy than
snow covered. Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories remain in
effect through 6 pm this evening. With a snowpack in place,
overnight lows dip into the upper teens to around 20 for most of
the area. This may support some refreeze and a few slick spots
into Friday night and Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 230 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

Saturday-Sunday: Behind this system, temperatures rebound into
the upper 30s to around 40 on Saturday afternoon. This will
support some melting of the existing snowpack through Saturday.
Drier weather persists through the weekend into Sunday, with
similar temperatures expected. Another cold front is progged to
slide through the region on Sunday, supporting a cold start into
early next week. No precipitation is expected with this frontal
passage at this time.

Next Week: A cold start to next week with highs on Monday in the
20s to lower 30s behind a dry cold front. Temperatures will run
around 5 to 7 degrees below normal through Wednesday. By late
next week, ensemble guidance highlights the pattern becoming
zonal and quiet. This will support a gradual warming trend to
near normal temperatures for mid-January with highs in the lower
40s. Additionally, little to no precipitation chances are in the
forecast through next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 516 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

IFR/LIFR conditions will continue for the rest of the morning as
snow continues. Banded snow is still occurring early this
morning which is dropping visibilities down below 1 SM. Expect
snow to taper off around noon today. Then, ceilings hover around
MVFR through the afternoon with skies clearing out later this
evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ073-
     097.
     Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ101.
MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>081-089.
     Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ082-
     083-088-090>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Soria