608
FXUS63 KSGF 010705
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
205 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat and humidity return on Tuesday through Thursday.

- Thunderstorm chances increase Wednesday through Friday.

- Slightly cooler temperatures over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 205 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery
and upper level analysis show a large upper level high pressure
system over the southern plains and lower Mississippi valley
with a ridge axis extending north into the central and northern
plains. An upper level trough was shifting east out of the
Pacific northwest into the northern Rockies. Shortwave energy
was pushing over the top of the ridge and instigating some
convection over the plains. A moisture axis extended from the
lower Mississippi valley into the central plains with some low
level warm advection taking place over central KS. This was
aiding in some shower development over central into eastern KS
early this morning. Temperatures across the areas were in the
upper 60s to mid 70s with dewpoints from the mid 50s in parts of
the eastern Ozarks to the upper 60s across the south.

Rest of tonight into Monday: A few of those showers may make it
into west central Missouri towards sunrise, but the bulk of any
convection should remain north of the area during the rest of
tonight into this morning. Most of the area should remain dry
today. The upper level ridge axis will shift east over the area
with the main upper energy remaining well to the northwest of
the area. The surface high will continue to shift more eastward
and our winds towards the end of the day will start to become
more southeasterly. Moisture advection from the Gulf will start
to increase over our western CWA. Highs today should reach the
low 90s in the far west, but only the upper 70s to low 80s in
the east. Heat index values in the west will be in the 100 to
103 degree range, but remain in the low 80s out east.

Tonight and Tuesday: The upper level ridge axis will shift
east of the area as the upper trough pushes east into the
northern plains and upper Mississippi valley. A frontal boundary
will start to approach from the northwest, but should remain
northwest of the area through 00z with little or no
precipitation expected. Temperatures and humidity will increase
over the area, with highs returning to the low 90s in the east
and the mid and upper 90s in the west. Heat index values over
teh western half of the area will be in the 105 to 108 degree
range and will likely eventually need a heat advisory, while in
the east remain in the mid 90s to around 101.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 205 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

On Tuesday night, the upper level flow will become more westerly
as the upper ridge flattens out from the southern plains into
the southeast U.S. The frontal boundary will push into the area
and become more west-east oriented over the area while upper
energy pushes across the region. High moisture content is
expected over the area with PW values over 2" across the area.
Thunderstorm chances will increase over the area through
Thursday night(50-70%) with the potential for heavy rain with
highest totals at this time expected to be over the northern
half of the CWA.

Temperatures will be highly dependent on how much can clear out
during the daytime on Wed/Thu but we are going with low 90s in
the north to the upper 90s in the south with heat index values
from the upper 90s in the north to 105-110 in the south both
days.

The front pushes further to the south over the weekend with
slightly cooler air moving into the area and pushing the better
rain chances to the south as well.




&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

For the 06z TAFS, keeping an eye out west in KS at some
convection starting to develop in central KS in an area of warm
air advection with some minor MU CAPE. CAMS generally take this
convection north of the TAF sites and for now have kept out of
the 06z TAFS. Will continue to see VFR ceilings through the
night and into Monday with winds continuing to gradually veer
from the east to the east-southeast.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024


Record High Temperatures:

July 2:
KSGF: 100/1933
KJLN: 103/2011

July 3:
KSGF: 98/2011
KJLN: 100/2011


Record Low Temperatures:

July 1:
KVIH: 56/1951


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 2:
KSGF: 76/1933

July 3:
KSGF: 77/2018

July 4:
KSGF: 78/1901

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg
CLIMATE...Nelson