194
FXUS63 KSGF 140408
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1108 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few light showers will remain possible this afternoon into
  the early evening.

- Temperatures warm to above normal for the remainder of the
  work week.

- Thunderstorm chances return late Friday into Saturday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Upper level analysis shows an upper level ridge axis extending
from east TX into the OH valley. Water vapor imagery shows an
upper low dropping south along the California coastline. In
between the low and upper ridge, a broad area of southwest flow
was occurring with an upper level jet streak and upper level
energy across the central and southern plains extending east
across Missouri. With a moisture plume over the area, some
scattered showers were occuring in the forecast area. However,
the majority of shower coverage remains to the west of the area
with the upper ridge axis in place across our area. The cloud
cover and scattered light precipitation has aided in keeping
temperatures a bit cooler today in the low 70s so far.

Forecast tonight and Tuesday: the ridge axis will continue to
build northward over the area and should keep the precipitation
chances to our west. Temperatures will begin to warm again, back
into the low to mid 80s on Tuesday which is about 10 degrees
above normal for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Warmer than normal temperatures this week:
The upper ridge will continue to amplify over the area this week
while the upper low begins to slowly push eastward into the
Rockies by the middle to later part of the week. The low level
jet and upper energy should remain to our west through Thursday.
Temperatures should continue to remain well above normal for
this time of year in the low to mid 80s for highs and mid 50s to
low 60s for lows.

Thunderstorm chances late Friday into Saturday: A secondary
system will give this first trough a boost eastward as we head
into late Friday and the weekend sending a cold front through
the area along with upper level energy. While models agree on
bringing showers and thunderstorms to the area, there still
remains some timing differences with respect to the upper wave
and surface front. The GFS deterministic and ensemble data
appear quite a bit faster than the ECMWF data. That being said,
we still have 40-70% pops for Friday night into Saturday night
across the area. Ensembles continue to show low probabilities of
combined shear/CAPE over the area on Saturday and possibly
Saturday night, so will need to monitor for the potential of
some severe storms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1109 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Some patchy fog is occurring across portions of the area late
this evening. Patchy fog will remain possible overnight into
early Tuesday. Mid level clouds will also increase was the west
overnight into Tuesday morning then will scattered out some
through the day. Winds will generally be light and variable
through out the TAF period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Wise