298
FXUS63 KSGF 091941
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
241 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire danger Monday with a Red Flag Warning in the
  afternoon for areas in southeast Kansas and southwest
  Missouri.

- Scattered rain chances (10-40%) on Wednesday with highest
  chances south of I-44. Not everyone will see rain.

- Watching a late-week system for severe storm potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

We`ve started out the day with plenty of sunshine and a nice warmup
from our 20s and 30s overnight temperatures to near 60 degrees area-
wide for our afternoon highs. Winds are light today with ridging
moving in, though there is a very dry airmass over the area, and
minimum relative humidities will drop into the 20s this afternoon
with the lowest values in the eastern half of the area. Thankfully,
the light winds are keeping fire danger limited today. Clear skies
and light winds tonight will allow low temperatures to drop into the
mid to high 30s.

Weak low-level low pressure pushing in from the north on Monday will
tighten the pressure gradient and bring stronger winds while
southerly flow continues to advect warmer and drier air into the
Ozarks. Sustained winds up to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph,
combined with the continued advection of warm dry air, will result
in elevated fire danger. Relative humidity will dip in to the 20%
range area-wide, but the fire danger will be greatest west of
Springfield where the winds will be strongest. Though criteria is
borderline, the setup is classic for critical fire danger, and a Red
Flag Warning has been issued for southeast Kansas and far
southwestern Missouri for tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Lows Monday will be warm, in the mid to high 40s. Southerly flow and
sunny skies continue on Tuesday, and temperatures will continue on
the upward trend, with highs around 70 in the north to the upper 70s
along the AR border. It will still be dry for some, but winds will
be much calmer. Widespread fire danger is not expected, though there
could be some locally elevated fire danger in areas with higher
winds such as extreme southwest Missouri. This system will have
little to no impact on our warming trend, and highs are expected in
the mid-70s.

Another system will pass by on Wednesday, though models are taking
it farther south with each run. At the moment, it brings 20-40% PoPs
to areas south of I-44. Moisture and instability are lacking, so
widespread rain is not expected with any of its most probable tracks
at the moment, though a more northern track would result in a bit
more than a southerly track.

Ridging comes back in full force Thursday and warming continues.
There is high confidence in warm temperatures, and some locations
may approach 80 degrees Thursday.

The next big system to watch looks to be coming Friday, though at
Day 6 there is considerable uncertainty in timing and details. The
system could quicken or slow, bringing it earlier or farther into
the weekend. The most we know about it at the moment is that it has
prompted a Day 6 15% chance for severe weather from the Storm
Prediciton Center, which loosely translates into an eventual Slight
(level 2/5) risk. Along with all the other details of the system,
this could change, and will be monitored closely.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

VFR conditions through the period. Light winds less than 5 kts
begin to slowly increase after 6Z, becoming out of the
southwest. Clear skies.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Monday for KSZ073-097-
     101.
MO...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Monday for MOZ066-077-
     088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Nelson
LONG TERM...Nelson
AVIATION...Nelson