972
FXUS63 KSGF 280801
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
301 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rain and a few embedded thunderstorm chances
  through early this afternoon, mainly along and southwest of a
  Nevada-Springfield-Gainesville line. Intermittent periods of
  heavy rain are expected.

- Medium-high confidence for a swath of 2-4 inches of rain
  across the extreme southwest corner of Missouri and southeast
  corner of Kansas with the potential for localized amounts up
  to 5-7 inches, especially in McDonald, Newton, and Cherokee
  Counties. A Flood Watch is in effect until 1 PM today.

- Below average, but comfortable, temperatures expected through
  the weekend into early next week with highs in lower to middle
  80s and only low-end 15-30% rain chances middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

A few bands of light rain shower are currently set up along a
line from Pittsburg, KS to Branson, MO. These bands are
occurring just northeast of moderate 850-700 mb warm air
advection, isentropic upglide, and frontogenesis. Following
these bands westward into central KS, heavier rain and
thunderstorms are developing within an area of greater forcing
from a mid-level shortwave progressing through the state. As the
shortwave enters our region and slides underneath the right
entrance region of an upper-level jet streak over the MO/IL
border, the bands of rain over our area should increase in
coverage and intensity.


Widespread rain to increase in coverage and intensity today:

Confidence is medium-high (and increasing) for the greatest
coverage and intensity of rain to be focused along and southwest
of where the current bands of light rain are set up. This means
areas southwest of a Nevada-Springfield-Gainesville line have
the greatest chance (60-100%) for widespread rain and a few
embedded thunderstorms this morning. HREF LPMM reflectivity
shows high confidence in the timing and general location of
these bands. The ensemble depicts coverage and intensity really
increasing after 5-6 AM, with the peak intensity and coverage
occurring between 7 AM and noon. After 12 PM, the rain shield
will slide south of the area with only lingering light showers
remaining through the afternoon.

The gradient of the precipitation shield is expected to be quite
sharp, with decent chances that areas northeast of an Osceola to
West Plains line to see little to no rain today. In fact, there
is a 80-95% chance for no rain northwest of said line (sorry
guys).


Potential for flooding with localized amounts up to 5-7 inches:

While the band of rain will be rather large, the axis of
heaviest rains is expected to be quite narrow. There`s still
a bit of uncertainty on exactly where this will fall. If we were
to interpolate the current band of heavy rain occurring over
Kansas, this axis would fall *just* southwest of Mcdonald
County, staying largely out of our area. Indeed, this is where
the heaviest rates are currently, albeit still light in the
grand scheme of things. That being said, there`s still room for
a northeastward shift that could occur from the front shifting
slightly northeast from warm air advection. CAM guidance suggest
high confidence in the heaviest rain staying southwest of a Fort
Scott, KS to Branson, MO line where the current Flood Watch is
in effect until 1 PM today.

Current MRMS observations/estimates show widespread 1-2 in/hr
rates occurring across Kansas, with isolated pockets of 2-3
in/hr rates within heavier thunderstorms. These rates can be
expected as the heavy rain slides into our area. The HREF and
experimental REFS tends to agree with mean hourly rates at
0.5-1.5 in/hr, and a 30% chance of >2 in/hr rates in isolated
thunderstorms. CAM trends have been a bit further southwest than
previous runs, with the 00Z HREF showing these highest rates
and subsequent total amounts clipping the southwest corner of
McDonald and Cherokee Counties, generally between 7-11 AM. With
the window of heaviest rain expected in a 5-8 hour period, it is
possible that rain rates could lead to localized river and flash
flooding, especially if the heavier thunderstorms can train over
the same area. As of now, the REFS has a low 5-15% chance of
exceeding 3 and 6 hourly flash flood guidance at any given point
within Cherokee, Newton, and McDonald Counties. This is in line
with the 15% chance of flash flooding within 25 miles of any
point given by the Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall by the
WPC. Therefore, be on the lookout for flash flooding, especially
in McDonald, Cherokee, and Newton Counties where persistent
moderate rainfall rates are expected.

As for rainfall totals, as we`ve drawn nearer to the event,
models have greatly tightened the QPF gradient as models come
into better agreement on where the narrow band of heavier rain
will occur. Virtually all high-res ensemble guidance from the
HREF, REFS, and SREF pointing to a swath of 1-4 inches along
and southwest of a line from Pittsburg, KS to Branson, MO.
HREF/REFS LPMMS point to localized swaths of 4-7 inches, mainly
confined to Cherokee, Newton, McDonald, and maybe Barry
counties. The NBM 90th falls in line with this, showing 4-5
inches in these areas. The HREF even shows a scenario for some
localized areas in the far southwest corner of McDonald County
to see greater than 7 inches. This level of rain may lead to
some river rises in the southwest corner of Missouri and
southeast corner of Kansas.


Potential for record lowest highs today and fog tonight:

With widespread cloud cover, evaporative cooling from the rain,
and the surface front staying well southwest of the area,
temperatures are only expected to reach the middle 60s to lower
70s southwest of an Osceola to West Plains line. Areas northeast
of that line could get up to the upper 70s to lower 80s as there
should be more breaks in the cloud cover.

Temperatures only fall slightly tonight into the 50s with the
lowest readings over the eastern Ozarks where skies should begin
to clear out. As a result of the wetting grounds, clearing
skies, and cooler temperatures, patchy fog will also be possible
tonight into Friday morning, especially in the eastern Ozarks.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Below average, but comfortable temperatures through next week:

After the rain exits, the upper-level longwave pattern will
largely stay the same with only slight deviations in the flow.
This consists of a longwave trough over the east CONUS, a ridge
over the west CONUS, and northwest flow over our area. The
persistent pattern will lead to consistent temperatures through
at least the middle of next week. The troughing over the east
and northwesterly mean flow over our area will keep temperatures
below normal with highs consistently in the lower to middle 80s
and lows in the 50s through the middle of next week.


Low-end 15-30% chances for rain at times next week:

Rain chances are largely going to be low for this period as the
surface frontal boundary hangs out across the Gulf, keeping high
pressure over our area. However, any wiggle within the upper-
level northwesterly flow could bring some chances of rain. Via
ensemble cluster analysis, there is hint for a shortwave diving
through Monday night through Tuesday. However, differences in
timing and exact shape are still quite high, leading to only
15-20% chances for this time period.

Later next week, there`s actually greater agreement in another
amplified bowling ball trough/upper-level low taking hold of the
east CONUS again. A cold front would likely be associated with
this entrance, which would bring some sort of probability of
precipitation during the middle of next week. PoPs are slightly
higher for Tuesday through Thursday at 15-30% to account for the
better agreement in trough intensity/shape. The main uncertainty
comes from timing and exact impact on the evolution of the low-
level features.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Current radar imagery depicts a band of light rain stretching
from JLN to BBG and southwest of there. As the TAF period goes
on, conditions will continue to deteriorate with coverage and
intensity of rainfall increasing. JLN and BBG are expected to
see the heaviest rain, with a few embedded thunderstorms
possible at times. The most widespread and heaviest rain is
expected between 09-18Z. There will be intermittent breaks, but
for the most part, heavy rain and a few thunderstorms can be
expected throughout this period.

As rain coverage increases, cigs will also drop. There is
medium-high confidence (40-70%) in MVFR cigs by 09-12Z, with
a 30-50% chance of IFR cigs between 11-20Z. There is question on
how long MVFR/IFR cigs hold on after 20Z, but short-range model
guidance suggests a 30-50% chance for IFR cigs to hold at BBG
through the end of the period, and only a 10-15% chance to hold
at SGF and JLN after 20Z.

Winds will steadily be out of the southeast at around 5-8 kts
through 12Z, then 8-12 kts from 12-02Z, becoming lighter and
more easterly by the end of the period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Record lowest high temperatures:

August 28:
KSGF: 68/1986
KJLN: 70/1988
KUNO: 69/1988
KVIH: 71/1965

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MOZ077-088-093-
     094-101>103.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Price
LONG TERM...Price
AVIATION...Price
CLIMATE...Lindenberg