


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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261 FXUS63 KSGF 030830 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 330 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slightly above normal temperatures and moisture expected this holiday weekend with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and Heat Index values between 90 and 100. - Isolated shower and thunderstorm chances (15-30%) west of Highway 65 for Friday (Independence Day) into Saturday. - Additional 30-50% rain chances then exist region-wide Sunday through the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 The overall synoptic pattern has not changed much over the last 24 hours. Water vapor imagery still depicts troughing over the Great Lakes and Northeast CONUS, broad ridging slowly inching eastward into the Plains states, and a shortwave across the Desert Southwest. At the surface, a diffuse cold front is still draped across the Appalachian Mountains into the southern Gulf states, with surface high pressure still centered over the Ozarks, bringing clear skies, calm winds, and cooler temperatures in the lower to middle 60s this morning. Cooler temperatures in the river valleys may promote some light patchy fog/mist development. Indeed, some light fog is already starting to show up in these valley areas on the GOES-19 Night Fog imagery. Slightly above normal Heat Index values between 90 and 100: Weak southerly winds will return today as the surface high departs eastward. This will slowly advect in warmer and more moist air into the region from the south. High temperatures are expected to reach near normal for early July, ranging from 88 to 90 F. Moisture will also increase, especially along the MO/KS border, closer to the tighter Plains height gradient. Dewpoints will reach into the middle to upper 60s. The combo of warmer temperatures and higher dewpoints will raise Heat Index values into the lower to middle 90s today. Temperatures and moisture will slightly increase for Independence Day with highs ranging from 89 to 91 and dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s yielding Heat Index values in the middle 90s, with localized areas nearing 100. While this is only just above normal heat for early July, extended periods spent outside can still produce heat-related impacts. Make sure to be mindful of these signs during the holiday weekend! Be proactive and mitigate any effects by staying hydrated and taking frequent breaks in cooler air (shade and buildings). As we head into the evening of Independence Day, temperatures should decrease to the upper 70s. There is a low-end (<15%) chance for a stray shower or thunderstorm in extreme southwest MO and extreme southeast KS along 700 mb frontogenesis collocated with a moisture gradient pushing northeast. Confidence is overall low, though, for the same reasons discussed in the next paragraph. 15-30% rain chances along and west of Hwy 65 for Independence Day: Short-term model guidance suggest the aforementioned moisture gradient and weak mid-level convergence will push into southwest and central Missouri Friday. This lift within greater moisture and sufficient instability could produce a few isolated showers and thunderstorms alog and west of Highway 65 during the afternoon/evening hours of Independence Day. This is low confidence, though (only a 15-30% chance as of now), as forecast soundings depict a very stout warm nose at around 600 mb with weak lapse rates above it. Additionally, our placement within the synoptic pattern downstream of the ridge and within negative vorticity is conducive for subsidence, which may squash any development. However, HREF and SREF paintballs and QPF footprints suggest some showers may still be possible. Be on the lookout for any short-term updates on this potential. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Slightly above normal Heat Index values continue this weekend: The ridge axis will begin elongating eastward and squashing southward starting Saturday. Despite this, the axis will still be centered over southern Missouri, keeping slightly above normal temperatures and humidity in the area. Highs will remain in the upper 80s and lower 90s with Heat Index values in the 90 to 100 range. Rain chances increase to 30-50% by Sunday and into mid next week: The ridge will have broken down by Sunday afternoon as mid- and upper-level zonal flow takes hold just to our north. Deterministic global models depict a ftrain of shortwaves progressing through the zonal flow. Some waves and vorticity maxima are stronger than others, which leads to slight timing and intensity differences in global models. Therefore, daily 30-50% rain chances exist Sunday through Thursday due to these differences. As of now, the best chances are Sunday and Monday as we get closer to those days and model agreement increases, however, there is an ensemble cluster signal for a more distinct shortwave with more northwest flow evolving sometime in the Tuesday to Thursday timeframe. The WPC is picking up on this signal, outlining much of the state of Missouri in a risk for heavy rainfall Wednesday. Of additional note, GEFS and ECMWF AI mode guidance continue to highlight a low-end (5%) chance that some of these storm chances may bring a severe risk. This potential largely seems low as LREF suggests <20 kts of deep layer shear through Tuesday. However, along with the signal for a more distinct shortwave, chances for shear >20 kts increase to 20-50% chance for next Wednesday and Thursday. Trends will continue to be monitored as we move forward. Small temperature variations next week, but generally near normal: With the variations in mid-level waves and chances for precipitation, temperatures will have slight changes through next week, but generally they will stay near normal in the middle to upper 80s with lows around 70 F. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 VFR conditions to prevail for the entire TAF period with 3-8 kt south-southwesterly winds and a 5 kft cu field developing between 16-01Z. River valley fog is expected between 07-13Z, which should not impact the TAF sites (>70% chance). BBG may see some reduced visibilities from the surrounding valley fog/mist, but confidence is too low to include in TAFs at the moment. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Price LONG TERM...Price AVIATION...Price