328
FXUS63 KSGF 011721
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1221 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler today with highs in the lower to middle 70s. Gusty
  northerly winds around 20 to 30 mph and dry conditions with
  the frontal passage.

- Warming trend through mid to late week with a return of above
  normal temperatures. Daily highs late this week in the 80s to
  near 90 in a few locations.

- Dry conditions persist through this week and the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

This Morning: An upper-level trough translates across the
Plains today with an associated cold front sliding southeast
through the region. Latest observations depict the approach of
this frontal passage across northern Missouri early this
morning, with the front progged to clear the area by late
morning. Given the absence of any moisture with this front, no
precipitation will occur. Ahead of this frontal passage, calm
winds and clear skies may support some fog along area riverways,
lakes, and low- lying areas through sunrise. However,
widespread fog is not expected.

Today: Behind the frontal passage, gusty northerly winds are
expected. A look at momentum transfer from the latest forecast
soundings depicts wind gusts around 20 to 30 mph immediately
behind the passage. Localized higher gusts approaching 35 mph
remain plausible across portions of southeast Kansas into
southwest Missouri. HREF guidance highlights 60-80%
probabilities for gusts greater than 30 mph through late
morning, before tapering off to 20 to 25 mph this afternoon.
Additionally, a substantially drier air mass builds into the
area today, with minimum afternoon humidities ranging from
20-35%. The lowest humidities will be focused across southeast
Kansas into southwest Missouri. This may pose the risk for
elevated fire conditions in this area, though winds will be
tapering off as relative humidity drops. Continue to keep an eye
on finer fuels and grasses this afternoon in this area.
Otherwise, a cooler day is expected across the area with highs
in the lower to middle 70s and ample sunshine.

Tonight: Clear skies and light winds by tonight set the stage
for efficient radiational cooling. Overnight lows fall into the
40s areawide, with the coolest locations expected across the
Eastern Ozarks where lows may bottom out in the upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Wednesday-Saturday: By Wednesday, mid-level height rises begin
to nudge into the western half of the area with surface high
pressure settling over the region. Highs on Wednesday will vary
from lower/middle 70s (east) to upper 70s/lower 80s (west). A
warming trending continues into late week, with highs on
Thursday ranging from upper 70s/lower 80s (east) to middle/upper
80s (west). A few locations across southeast Kansas into
southwest Missouri may approach 90 by Thursday afternoon. This
is supported by a local climatological study on 850mb soaring
to 18-22 C. This period of drier and above normal temperatures
continues into Friday and Saturday.

Sunday-Monday: Ensemble guidance suggest another upper-level
trough and associated frontal passage slide through the area at
some point late this weekend into early next week. There remains
some differences on the timing and depth of this trough digging
into the region. For this reason, there remains around a ten
degree temperature spread into the later part of the forecast
period. Nonetheless, there remains strong agreement on dry
conditions persisting into early/mid October. CPC outlooks favor
above normal temperatures in this period as well. Given this
forecast, drought conditions may expand and worsen through
October.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

VFR conditions will occur across the region this afternoon
through the day on Wednesday as surface high pressure moves
across the area. Gusty northerly winds will continue early this
afternoon ahead of the surface high, but winds will continue to
gradually weaken this afternoon with light winds occurring this
evening and tonight. As the area of surface high pressure moves
east across the region southeasterly winds will return to the
area on Wednesday and will remain on the light side.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Wise