279
FXUS63 KSGF 051749
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1149 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain chances (10-30%) late this afternoon and evening,
  transitioning to drizzle tonight into Friday.

- Increasing confidence in the potential for areas of frost and
  freeze this weekend. Lows each morning in the upper 20s and
  30s.

- Warming trend returns early next week, with a return of
  temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 200 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Today-Tonight:
A mid-level trough and associated shortwave build out of the
Southern Plains today. Moisture return looks limited, with a
rather diffuse frontal passage expected across the region. Ahead
of the front, highs reach into the 60s today, with the warmest
temperatures across southern MO. Cloud cover increases ahead of
the approaching shortwave, with PoPs limited to 10-30%. Initial
onset of scattered light showers will be confined to southeast
KS and southwest MO late this afternoon and evening. Rainfall
amounts look to remain limited to a few hundredths of less.
Several areas remain dry through this evening. Further north
and east, the lift looks to remain marginal at best. This will
limit the extent of PoP coverage through this evening. However,
as cloud ice dissipates and low- level moisture filters in,
drizzle looks to overspread the Ozark Plateau. Breezy north-
northwest winds filter in a cooler airmass tonight into Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Friday:
Behind the frontal passage, low-level moisture remains trapped
below a sharp inversion. This may allow for drizzle and low-
level clouds to persist through Friday. The longer the
clouds/drizzle linger, the cooler high temperatures reach on
Friday afternoon. Currently, highs are only progged to reach
into the 50s, though may end up a bit cooler. By Friday night,
clouds dissipate as light north winds settle into the area. This
will set the stage for a cold night, with lows falling into the
30s. Recent trends would suggest increasing confidence in
widespread frost, with a freeze likely in the eastern Ozarks. A
freeze remains possible in other parts of the area, particularly
in the sheltered valleys. Frost and freeze headlines will be
needed in subsequent forecasts. However, it is plausible low-
level cloud cover inhibits frost/freeze concerns for Friday
night into Saturday morning, that will need monitored closely
over the next 24 to 36 hours.

Saturday-Sunday:
Cooler temperatures persist on Saturday with highs in the middle
50s. This will be accompanied by dry weather. Clearing skies
into Saturday night set the stage for additional frost/freeze
concerns.

A bit warmer into the lower/middle 60s on Sunday, before yet
another chilly night into Monday morning. This will likely be
the last potential morning for frost/freeze with a warming trend
expected through mid next week.


Early Next Week:
Ensemble guidance are slowly coming into better agreement into
next week, with a ridge of high pressure overspreading the
central CONUS. This will support increasing mid-level heights,
and thus a warming trend. Temperatures are progged to be 5 to 10
degrees above normal, with daily highs in the upper 60s to lower
70s. This will be accompanied by another dry stretch of weather,
further amplifying drought conditions and potential Fall fire
weather conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1146 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

VFR conditions will persist until low level moisture brings
lowered ceilings and drizzle late this evening into Friday.
Lowest confidence in seeing drizzle is at KBBG due to
downsloping northerly winds, and highest is at KJLN and
especially KSGF.

Expect drizzle to dissipate by mid day Friday as ceilings lift
some, but an inversion will trap moisture and keep MVFR ceilings
around into the afternoon and possibly evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Titus