780
FXUS63 KSGF 181000
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
500 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for the entire area through 8pm.
  Afternoon heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees. The Heat
  Advisory may need to be extended into Tuesday for portions of
  the area.

- Scattered showers and storms this afternoon and evening,
  mainly along and east of Highway 65. Wind gusts up to 60mph in
  the strongest storms.

- 30-50% chances for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into
  Wednesday as a cold front moves through. Temperatures drop
  back closer to average for mid to late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper
air analysis shows the upper level ridge of high pressure from
the southwest US into the central plains. The 00Z KSGF sounding
continues to measure a moist and unstable airmass with a PW
value around 1.6in and 2500j/kg of ML CAPE. 850mb temps were
measured at 23C and 700mb temps around 11C therefore warm temps
aloft continue. The area was precip free early this morning with
passing cloud debris from yesterdays storms. It was mild with
temps in the 70s to around 80.

Today through Tonight: Short term guidance has done pretty well
the last few days with afternoon pop up storms and today looks
to be like another one. Strong heating will occur in the morning
and early afternoon, allowing for convective temps to be
reached for areas along and east of Highway 65. RAP suggests a
corridor of slightly higher ML CAPE between the Highway 65 and
Highway 63 corridors. This is the area we are expecting
thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours and we have
increased precip chances closer to 40% to account for more
scattered coverage. Pulse thunderstorm indicies and procedures
do show a slightly more favorable environment for localized
downbursts to 60mph (there were actually a few yesterday as well).
Slightly higher moisture above 500mb will be present along with
higher theta-e diffs. Storm outflows will again likely move to
the west, initiating new storms however warmer air aloft may
limit how far west storms can get. HREF LPMM data suggests that
pockets of 0.5 to 2 inches may occur in the strongest storms
given high moisture and slow storm motions.

Otherwise it will likely be another scorcher with highs in the
upper 90s to low 100s. A few of our COOP observers have been
reporting highs between 99 and 102 the last few days, especially
along and south of I-44. Heat index values around 100 are
likely and the Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8pm.

Tuesday: Mid and upper level heights will begin to flatten and
allow for shortwave energy to move closer to the area along with
an eventual cold front. A cluster of storms across Nebraska and
Iowa will drop into Missouri early in the morning and remnant
boundaries will likely move into the area through the day.
Latest HREF suggests the potential for scattered showers and
storms during the morning as the weakening cluster moves in.
Additional storm development would then occur during the
afternoon given increasing instability and lift from boundaries
and upper level support. Much like today, there could be a few
stronger thunderstorm downbursts given the moisture, instability
and weak shear. The potential for clouds and precip makes high
temps a challenge. The latest HREF and NBM suggests that temps
should still reach at least the low to middle 90s for areas
along and south of I-44 before additional storms form. If this
does occur then heat index values would approach 100 degrees and
a Heat Advisory would be needed since it would likely be at
least the 5th day in a row of these values. Given the lower
confidence in temps we will hold off on extending at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Thunderstorms may linger into
the night as a front moves through the area. This front will
likely be near or just south of the area on Wednesday however
additional shortwave energy moving through looks to trigger
additional precip chances on Wednesday, especially south of
I-44. There is some disagreement/lower confidence as to the
coverage and timing of precip Wednesday therefore additional
updates are likely. Cooler air aloft will spread in and will
likely keep highs in the upper 80s to around 90.

Thursday into the Weekend: Ensembles are in decent agreement
that the area will remain in northerly flow aloft with the
upper level high well west of the area. 850mb temps will be
closer to the 16-20C range therefore highs in the 80s and low
90s will occur. Surface dewpoints should also drop lower into
the upper 50s to low 60s. Rain chances remain less than 10
percent for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 500 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail through the
TAF period. Afternoon cumulus will develop and we should see
scattered showers and storms east of the TAF sites. We have left
precip out of the TAFs however might need to add a prevailing
tempo or prob30 at SGF and BBG in future updates. Winds will
remain light out of the south.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield