832
FXUS63 KSGF 090930
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
330 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rain (80-95% chance) continues through early
  afternoon. Rainfall amounts from 0.25" to 0.75". Localized
  amounts around 1.00" to 2.00" along and west of the I-49
  corridor. Drizzle possible (15% chance) after rain showers
  end.

- Seasonably warm and pleasant weather next week with low
  potential (20-35%) for showers and thunderstorms next Tuesday
  night and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 330 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

Current satellite and radar imagery depict the dynamic upper-
level cut-off low and occluding surface low pressure system over
the Colorado Front Range. A tongue of very dry mid-level air can
be seen pushing into KS and OK. The occluded front extends from
central KS down through central OK and east TX. The warm front
is currently analyzed over central LA, a bit further south than
previously forecast. Strong low- and mid-level warm air
advection ahead of the occluded front and beneath upper-level
diffluence/divergence is forcing widespread rain showers across
the area. A narrowing ribbon of moisture has been keeping rain
production on the low side with current totals across our area
ranging from 0.01-0.50" as of 2 AM. The higher totals are
confined to extreme SE MO, keeping in line with our previous
forecasts.


Widespread rain showers continues through early afternoon:

Numerous showers will continue to lift NNE through the region
this morning as the upper-level low and occluded surface cyclone
translate NNE as well. The highest chances (70-85%) will
progress eastward through the morning, being along the I-49
corridor between 3-5 AM, the Highway 65 corridor between 4-7 AM,
and the Highway 63 corridor between 9 AM and 12 PM. With the
warm front still analyzed well to the south, and the moisture
ribbon progressively thinning due to further occlusion, total
rainfall amounts will be modest in the 0.25-0.75" range (this is
a high confidence range with multi-ensemble agreement). The
highest amounts will be along and west of the I-49 corridor
where the currently observed higher amounts are situated. RAP
mesoanalysis does show a tongue of 500-750 J/kg MUCAPE and
1.4-1.5" PWATs within the ribbon of moisture. This could allow
for a couple embedded thunderstorms. Areas where any
thunderstorms track could see localized amounts up to
1.00-2.00", but these are expected to be few and far between
based on current radar trends.


Drizzle possible (15% chance) after rain showers end:

Along and behind the exiting rain and occluded front, low-level
RH will be at 90-95%, with a 0% chance of any cloud ice, meaning
warm rain processes will dominate. Southerly winds up the Ozark
Plateau paired with lingering synoptic-scale low-level ascent
will allow periods of drizzle to be possible (15% chance) for a
few hours after the rain exits. This will be especially true
along and SE of the Plateau--in south-central MO--where upslope
flow could produce denser drizzle as suggested by RAP modeled
visibilities at less than a mile.

After the brief period of drizzle, skies will clear pretty
quickly, allowing for a bit of daytime warming west of Hwy 65.
This will lead high temperatures to be in the upper 50s east of
Hwy 65, and in the middle 60s west of Hwy 65. This will be
flipped overnight tonight with lows in the middle 40s west of
Hwy 65 and in the lower 50s east of Hwy 65.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 330 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

Seasonably warm and pleasant weather next week:

After the system exits, there will be a few days of seasonably
warm and pleasant weather as heights rise ahead of the next
upper-level wave. Highs Sunday through Tuesday will be in the
middle 60s, with near 70 F temperatures along the southern
border. Lows will be in the lower 40s Sunday and Monday night,
and in the upper 40s Tuesday night as cloud cover increases with
the next system.


Low potential (20-35%) for rain Tuesday night and Wednesday:

There is still ensemble uncertainty in the evolution of the next
trough as it traverses our region Tuesday night and Wednesday.
However, trends are pointing to much of the synoptic-scale lift
with the wave to be across the northern Midwest states.
Additionally, the cold front associated with this weekend`s
system is progged to be across the Gulf, limiting ample moisture
return into the next system. These two factors have trended to
a much drier rain forecast Tuesday night and Wednesday with a
20-35% chance of rain showers.


Seasonably warm and pleasant weather continues late next week:

Since the trend for the next system is for the lower upper-level
heights to stay to the north, temperatures are not expected to
drop much behind the system. This means nice fall weather will
continue. Highs will continue to be in the middle 60s Tuesday
through Saturday with lows in the lower 40s Wednesday and
Thursday night, and in the upper 40s Friday and Saturday night.


In the extended, models are hinting at another amplified wave
pattern with a deep trough over the west CONUS. This is the
result of the above normal temperatures and precipitation
forecast from the CPC for the 8-14 day period.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1140 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Conditions will continue to deteriorate across all TAF sites
through at least 18Z at JLN and 00Z at SGF and BBG. Scattered
light showers are currently lifting north through the forecast
area and will continue to impact sites until 12-14Z. Some weak
instability will push through between 06-14Z, bringing the
chance for some embedded lightning, especially at JLN. After
light showers clear, some backside drizzle is possible between
12-18Z (15% chance), keeping visibilities mildly reduced. Along
with the passage of the front, cigs will gradually decrease,
reaching IFR for a good chunk of time between 12-00Z. For brief
times, conditions could reach LIFR during this period (40-70%
chance at BBG and SGF). For added confidence, the HREF does put
a 90-100% chance of LIFR conditions between 20-00Z at SGF and
BBG. Conditions will then improve after 00Z.

Otherwise, winds out of the SE will also be active through 00Z
at 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20-25 kts at times. These will
weaken to 5-10 kts after 00Z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Price
LONG TERM...Price
AVIATION...Price