812
FXUS63 KSGF 061739
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1139 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low precipitation chances 10-15% Sunday morning for areas
  along and north of I-44. Little to no accumulations are
  expected.

- Increasing confidence in a warming trend toward above normal
  temperatures into next week. Average highs for this time
  period range from 45 to 50 degrees. Mostly dry weather
  accompanies this pattern.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 252 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

There is a Dense Fog Advisory in effect until 10 AM for areas
along and west of Highway 65. Dense fog is expected to develop
this morning and visibilities could drop below 1/4 mi at times.
Areas near central MO have the possibility of seeing freezing
fog as their temperatures will hover near freezing early this
morning. If freezing fog does occur, elevated surfaces may
become icy, travel with caution.

The rest of today will feature partly cloudy skies with highs
reaching the lower 50s and light southerly winds just near 10
mph. Another shot of cold air will arrive overnight as a cold
front moves through. Lows will slowly drop into the mid 30s
tonight.

Winds turn northerly and become gusty by Sunday morning. Winds
will gust up to 25 mph by Sunday afternoon. As mentioned in the
previous discussion, there is still a slight chance (10-15%) of
drizzle following the frontal passage on Sunday morning. This
is mainly for areas along and north of I-44. The RAP shows that
low-level moisture is expected to be over 90%, there will be
plenty of lift from the passing front, and cloud ice will depart
as the front pushes southeast. We haven`t completely ruled
freezing drizzle out of the forecast for Sunday morning. It sill
appears that locations closer to central MO have the highest
chance to see freezing drizzle if it does occur. Right now,
hourly temperatures hover around 31 to 33 degrees from 7 AM to
10 AM Sunday morning up there. The confidence in freezing
drizzle occurring is still low at this time due to that two
degree temperature spread. The formation of freezing drizzle
will be dependent on how quickly temperatures begin to drop
behind the front. No other wintry accumulations or impacts are
expected at this time.

The rest of the day Sunday will be cloudy, breezy, and chilly
with temperatures only reaching the mid 30s by the afternoon.
Sunday night will be cold with lows in the upper teens to lower
20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 252 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

A surface high starts to build in to our north to start the next
week. Southerly flow returns on Monday and high temperatures
slowly warm back up for the middle of next week. Highs on Monday
will be in the 40s while Tuesday and Wednesday could feature
highs in the low to mid 50s. Towards the end of the forecast
period, we have a couple of shortwave features that will past
just to our north. These shortwaves will bring us a couple of
weaker fronts by mid-week. Right now, there isn`t precipitation
expected with those fronts. One front will move through on
Wednesday and another one will move through on Thursday
night. This means that our wind directions will be erratic for
the latter half of the week and will switch between southerly
and northerly each day and each day will feature partly cloudy
skies. Highs on Wednesday and Thursday will be similar in the
upper 40s to low 50s with wind gusts near 20-25 mph due to the
shortwave activity. Highs by Friday will be a bit cooler in the
30s due to the front that moves through on Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1135 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Conditions should gradually improve into MVFR and then VFR for
mid to late afternoon as the low stratus slowly erodes.
Confidence is high however that the low stratus and IFR ceilings
will move back into the area overnight and last through Sunday.
There could also be some MVFR visibility in fog however we are
not expecting dense fog like we had this morning. Winds will
switch from the south to the north Sunday morning. There will be
some patchy drizzle at times Sunday however confidence is not
high enough to include at this time.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Burchfield