805
FXUS63 KSGF 032100
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
300 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chances (15-30%) for a narrow band of light wintry mix
  becoming light snow into this evening across central
  Missouri. Low confidence in any light snow accumulations,
  generally limited to a dusting or less.

- Low chances (10-20%) for freezing drizzle south of Interstate
  44 corridor this evening into tonight, with the best chances
  across south central Missouri. Low confidence in a light
  glaze of ice and a few slick spots into Thursday morning.

- Much colder on Thursday with highs in the 30s, before a
  return to 40s through the weekend. Furthermore, confidence is
  increasing in a warming trend into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Through Tonight:
A shortwave trough builds off the leeside of the Rockies today,
with a cold front surging south out of the Plains. Strong
dynamics overlay the region, with a 120-140 knot jet streak.
Moisture lifting north will clash with the front sliding south.
In this area of frontogenesis, there may be enough moisture to
squeeze out some precipitation. This introduces low PoPs
(15-30%) across the area through this evening and tonight.
Initial temperature profiles would support rain, before a
changeover to a wintry mix. However, the other side of picture
would suggest little to no coverage of precipitation through
tonight due a lack of sufficient moisture.

The most likely scenario based on the latest trends suggests a
narrow band of light wintry mix sliding through portions of the
area. This can be gleaned from the latest radar analysis,
depicting light reflectivity echos developing across central
MO. However, much of this has struggled to make it to ground so
far this afternoon, as low- level moisture remains marginal. As
we progress through the late afternoon into the evening, a
slight uptick in moisture is progged to occur, supporting PoPs
up to 30% across central and south central MO. A deeper look
would suggest light rain develops in a narrow band associated
with 700mb frontogenesis. As colder air settles into the area
and sunset occurs, a changeover to light rain to wintry mix to
all light snow would occur. Confidence remains low on the
extent of coverage and any potential accumulations. The higher
end of guidance suggest light snowfall amounts across central MO
towards a 0.5 inch, with most of the guidance around a dusting
or less. As the front sinks further south, the attention turns
towards light wintry mix becoming light drizzle/freezing
drizzle. This is generally in the area east of Highway 65 and
south of Highway 60, where low-level moisture is present in the
vicinity of no cloud ice. Thus, supporting the potential
development of areas of drizzle to freezing drizzle. The
residual time of any freezing drizzle would be short-lived, with
it falling as a very fine drizzle in terms of microphysics.
Additionally, as stratus builds down, some spotty areas of
freezing fog may develop again into south central MO. Likewise,
confidence remains low in this potential as well. However, any
light accumulations of snow or a glaze of ice could support some
slick spots, especially on elevated or untreated roadways. With
all this in mind, the extent of coverage of wintry
precipitation is expected to remain low, with most areas likely
remaining dry through tonight.

On the contrary, moisture and forcing overlap may not be enough
to overcome dry air in the low-levels. In this scenario, lower
PoPs would be warranted along a dry frontal passage.

Nonetheless, the frontal passage supports colder air building
into the area overnight, with lows in the teens (north) and
lower 20s (south). Northerly winds around 10 to 15 mph gives
way to wind chills in the single digits to teens for Thursday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Thursday:
Guidance suggests the stratus deck behind the front gradually
dissipates through Thursday for portions of the area, with
colder temperatures in the forecast. Highs Thursday reach into
the upper 20s (north) to middle 30s (south).

As we progress through the day, a secondary shortwave ejects
eastward into the region. The latest ensembles suppress the jet
streak further south of the area, which would suggest a shift
of precipitation axis further south. There has been a lack of
run to run, and model to model consistency with this wave. Based
on the latest, the general consensus is low PoPs (10-20%)
skirting the MO/AR border. Timing would generally be late
afternoon through the night if anything is able to materialize.
However, confidence remains low once again. Another cold night
across the area with lows in the upper teens to middle 20s.

Friday-Sunday:
As we get into the weekend, the upper-level pattern becomes
quasi-zonal to northwesterly. This will support a bit "warmer"
temperatures, though still 5+ degrees below normal for early
December. Highs this weekend are progged to reach into the 40s
to near 50 on Friday and Saturday, before yet another frontal
passage cools us off into Sunday. Ensembles vary on associated
precipitation chances with the frontal passage. For now, keeping
PoPs low around 15-25%.

Next Week:
Ensembles are slowly coming into better agreement on mid-level
riding building east towards the region into next week. If
confidence continues to increase in this signal, next week would
favor a return of temperatures near to above normal into the
50s. Additionally, this pattern would support a drier stretch of
weather. This aligns with the latest CPC 6 to 10 day Outlook,
with remaining uncertainty on the extent east of the ridging.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1120 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Clouds are scattering out early afternoon, though will be
short-lived as additional cloud covers builds in this afternoon
ahead of a frontal passage. Expect IFR to MVFR flight conditions
with the frontal passage into this evening, with ceilings around
900 to 2500 feet. Additionally, there is a low chance (10-20%)
as depicted by the PROB30 groups for light wintry mix overnight.
Confidence is low in coverage and extent of chances. Flight
conditions gradually improve late in the TAF period.

Meanwhile, expect light southerly winds to become more west-
northwest with the frontal passage. Likely a more northeasterly
component at KBBG.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Perez