474
FXUS63 KSGF 041844
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
144 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures continue into early next week.

- 20-40% chances of showers and thunderstorms Monday through
  Tuesday.

- Slightly cooler temperatures behind a front Wednesday into
  Thursday with more normal temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 144 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Upper level analysis and water vapor imagery show an upper level
ridge axis from TX into NY with a low pressure system over UT,
now lifting northeast. A drier air mass has pushed over the
region and the cumulus field was south and east of the region
with a clear sky over the CWA. Temperatures were slightly cooler
than yesterday at this time in the upper 70s to low 80s with dew
points from the low to mid 50s. Winds have increased today from
what we`ve had most of the week, with steady south to southeast
winds around 10 to 15 mph and gusts up to 20 in the west. This
was occurring with a tightening pressure gradient over the area
with high pressure to the east and low pressure over the
Rockies.

Tonight and Sunday: We can expect to see these wind gusts up to
20 mph today and 25 mph on Sunday as that upper level jet lifts
northeast. This system will remain well to our west with no risk
of precipitation yet. Moisture will remain to our south and
southeast and also along the front to our northwest. We may see
a bit more cumulus in our southeast CWA on Sunday, but not
expecting any precipitation. Highs will once again be above
normal in the low to mid 80s across the area.



&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 144 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

That moisture will continue to creep into the area from the
southeast along with some shortwave energy lifting north from
the lower MS valley. This may spark some showers/thunderstorms
on Monday and Tuesday with our best probability for scattered
convection in our eastern CWA(30-40%). The front will remain to
our north/northwest on Monday and Tuesday but should start to
push south through the area on Tuesday night. Slightly cooler
temperatures will occur behind the front with more normal
temperatures in the 70s, but then begin to creep back into the
80s by Friday. Some of the area might not see any rain
Monday/Tuesday, especially northwest of the I-44 corridor. A
tenth to half inch of rain will be possible with the scattered
convection southeast of I-44 with localized higher amounts
possible.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

For the 18z TAFS, high pressure and dry air over the area will
keep VFR conditions in place through the period. Will see
southerly winds of 10 to 15 kts and some potential gusts at
SGF/JLN up to 20 kts during this afternoon and again by mid
morning on Sunday with a pressure gradient tightening up as a
storm system lifts northeast to our west and high pressure
centered to our east.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg