387
FXUS63 KSGF 042033
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
233 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold tonight with overnight lows in the upper teens to lower
  20s. Friday morning wind chills in the teens.

- Low precipitation chances 10-20% Saturday night into Sunday
  morning across central Missouri. Light amounts expected, with
  an 80-95% chance of <0.1 inches of rain, or <1 inch of snow.
  Higher confidence in rain compared to snow.

- Increasing confidence in a warming trend toward above normal
  temperatures into next week. Average highs for this time
  period range from 45 to 50 degrees. Mostly dry weather
  accompanies this pattern.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 230 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Today-Tonight:
Surface high pressure is beginning to drop into the region as
shortwave energy kicks out of Southern Plains. The frontal
passage and associated trough have suppressed much of this
passing system to the south of the area. Behind the frontal
passage, a much drier airmass has filtered into the area.
Temperatures remain quiet cold this afternoon, with highs
ranging from upper 20s (north) to middle 30s (south). Associated
cloud cover with the passing shortwave to the south has
supported cloud cover, that continues to gradually clear to the
south and east. Precipitation chances remain minimal in our area
through this evening, with very low chances (<10%) for some
flurries or sprinkles along the MO/AR border. Most areas remain
dry through this evening. For tonight, efficient radiational
cooling will give way to overnight lows in the upper teens to
lower 20s, though winds begin to turn out of the south through
early Friday morning.

Friday:
As we get into Friday, mid-level height rises overspread the
area with southerly flow prevailing. This will support a quick
rebound in temperatures, with highs in the middle to upper 40s
on Friday. This is closer to average for early December.
Additionally, can expect occasional wind gusts around 20 mph in
an area along and west of Highway 65.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

This Weekend:
As we get into Saturday, the zonal upper-level pattern becomes
more northwesterly, supporting a few embedded shortwaves through
the flow. Additionally, another frontal passage will accompany
the passing wave into Saturday. Recent trends suggest this
shortwave/clipper system and associated precipitation chances
have decreased, with the bulk of the chances remaining north and
east of the area and a drier air mass. There are still a few
ensemble member solutions that want to take some measurable
precipitation through central MO, though this is a low
confidence scenario. For now, we will continue to advertise low
chances (10-20%) for light rain, perhaps mixing in with a few
snowflakes as cold air intrudes the area Saturday night. At this
time, we are not expecting any measurable snow or impacts.This
can be gleaned from NBM 80-95% chance of <0.1 inches of rain, or
<1 inch of snow

By Sunday morning, temperatures will be back into the upper
teens to middle 20s across the area. NBM depicts highs
rebounding into the upper 30s to middle 40s by Sunday afternoon
with dry conditions.

Next Week:
Warming temperature trend into early next week as southerly flow
appears to return. Cooler temperatures hang around through
Monday before upper 40s to mid 50s overspread the area on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Additionally, drier conditions look to
accompany this warm up. Beyond the mid-week warmup, uncertainty
increases in the pattern. NBM into late next week depicts 15 to
20 degree interquartile spreads, thus low confidence in
temperatures ahead into mid-December.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1110 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

High confidence in VFR conditions through most of the TAF
period. Mid to high level clouds gradually dissipate through the
late afternoon into the evening. Light northeast winds at 5 to
10 knots become variable this evening. Winds turn out of the
south-southwest into Friday morning, with occasional gusts up to
20 knots late in the TAF period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Perez