801
FXUS63 KSGF 300745
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
245 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near to above normal temperatures (upper 70s to lower/middle
  80s) for today with a brief cool down for Tuesday. Above
  normal temperatures return late week.

- Dry conditions persist through this week into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

This Morning: High pressure has settled into the area to begin
the week. Calm surface winds and clear skies early this morning
will give way to areas of fog through sunrise, particularly on
the Ozarks Plateau. HREF guidance depicts probabilities of
visibilities less than a half mile (40-60%) along this same
corridor. The highest confidence for areas of dense fog will be
focused along area riverways, lakes, and low-lying areas. Given
the lack of confidence in widespread dense fog coverage, a Dense
Fog Advisory is not being proposed at this time. We will
continue to monitor observations through this morning. Areas of
fog burn off a hour or two after sunrise.

This Afternoon-Tonight: Near to above normal temperatures
headline the forecast for the next week. Highs this afternoon
will vary from upper 70s/lower 80s (east) to middle 80s (west).
Overnight lows drop into the lower 60s.

Tuesday: By Tuesday, a subtle break in the pattern will feature
a dry cold front passage through the region. While no
precipitation is expected with this front, we will see breezy
north winds on Tuesday with highs varying from lower 70s (north)
to upper 70s (south). This is right around climatological
normal for the beginning of October. Strong radiational cooling
Tuesday night sets the stage for a chilly night with lows in
the 40s. The coolest locations will be focused across the
Eastern Ozarks.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Wednesday-Thursday: By mid-week, mid-level height rises return
behind the frontal passage supporting a warming trend. Daily
highs climb back into the 80s, to perhaps even near 90 across
far southeast Kansas into southwest Missouri on Thursday.
Furthermore, dry conditions will accompany this stretch of
weather through late week.

Next Weekend: By next weekend, ensemble guidance suggest
additional weak and dry frontal passages to slide through the
region. As for temperatures, the NBM spread depicts some
variance on highs ranging from lower 70s to lower 80s.
Nonetheless, CPC 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day outlooks continue
to favor above normal temperatures and below normal
precipitation through early October.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Patchy areas of dense fog will set in the next couple of hours
dropping visibilities down to 1/2SM is some areas especially
over SGF and BBG. Expect IFR/LIFR conditions to occur as well.
VFR is expected to return by mid-morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Soria