960
FXUS63 KSGF 100921
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
421 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- No measurable rain chances in the forecast through this week
  and minimal chances (<10%) for rainfall next week.

- Warming trend into the weekend, with a return of temperatures
  into the upper 70s to middle/upper 80s today through Saturday
  (5 to 10 degrees above normal). A few locations approach the
  lower 90s on Saturday, with the potential for record highs.

- Fire weather conditions will be monitored as very dry air and
  no significant rain are expected over the next week which
  will continue to dry fuels.

- Strong cold front moves through the area Sunday into early
  next week, with much cooler temperatures and the potential
  for frost.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

An upper level disturbance will continue to move south across
the central Plains today. A dry air mass is in place across area
so no rainfall will occur with this feature. Some high level
clouds will move across the western portions of the area this
morning. Highs will once again warm into the upper 70s to the
mid to upper 80s this afternoon. Winds will remain on the
lighter side (less than 10 mph) today out of the south to
southeast. Afternoon minimum humidity values will drop into the
15 to 30 percent range this afternoon as a dry air mass remains
in place.

An upper level ridge will build east across the Plains on Friday
and Saturday with warmer air mass continuing to advect into the
region. Highs on Friday will warm into the lower to upper 80s
with highs in the middle 80s to the lower 90s expected on
Saturday. Some record highs will be possible across the area on
Saturday. Winds will remain out of the south to southwest Friday
and Saturday and will increase some with gusts up to 15 to 20
mph possible at times mainly west of Highway 65. A dry air mass
will remain in place as afternoon humidity values drop into the
20 to 35 percent range both Friday and Saturday. Some elevated
fire weather conditions will occur across portions of the area,
mainly west of Highway 65, on both Friday and Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

An upper level trough will move across the northern Plains on
Saturday and will move to the southeast Sunday into early next
week. A cold front will move from north to south across the
region on Sunday. Highs will range from the middle 70s across
central Missouri where the front will move through earlier in
the day, to the middle 80s across far southern Missouri on
Sunday. Winds will switch to the north behind the front and
could see some gusts up to 20 mph at times behind the front on
Sunday. A dry air mass will remain over the region which will
result in no rain occurring with the frontal passage. Some
localized elevated fire weather conditions will remain possible
on Sunday into early next week as the dry air mass remains over
the region.

A cooler air mass will move into the area behind the front
early next week. The models are indicated that lows Monday
night/Tuesday morning and Tuesday night/Wednesday morning will
drop into the 30s with highs in the 60s Monday through
Wednesday. There could be some frost potential early next week,
but a drier air mass will remain in place across the area and
will have to get a better handle on early morning RH values for
frost development potential early next week. No rainfall is
expected across the area through the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 420 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

VFR conditions will occur across the area today into Friday.
Winds will be light (less than 10kt) out of the south to
southeast through the TAF period. A few high clouds will move
across the region this morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Record High Temperatures:

October 11:
KJLN: 91/2020

October 12:
KSGF: 88/1899
KJLN: 91/1978
KVIH: 87/1962
KUNO: 87/1975

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise
CLIMATE...Wise