412
FXUS63 KSGF 111859
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
159 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 30-50% chances for showers and thunderstorms to redevelop later
  this afternoon into tonight along and west of the Hwy 63
  corridor.

- Daily rain chances (30-50%) persist through Wednesday, with
  temperatures returning to near normal for mid August.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 151 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

A positively tilted upper level trough is currently extended through
the central CONUS, with models showing several embedded shortwaves
throughout. Towards the surface, a surface low is situated over
central KS, with a quasi-stationary frontal boundary draped
across NW MO down through the TX/OK panhandles, and an outflow
boundary bisecting the CWA. A remnant MCS brought scattered
showers and thunderstorms to the area this morning into the
early afternoon, however with the drier soil moistures, not much
in the way of flooding was observed.

Satellite imagery shows some clearing leading to additional
destabilization, with CAMs showing redevelopment of showers and
thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening along the outflow
boundary (30-50% chances). Storms should remain subsevere, however
we can`t completely rule out an isolated strong to severe pulse-like
thunderstorm. Despite enough instability present (MLCAPE between
1000-2500 J/kg), low shear and weaker forcing will hinder any
organization taking form with these storms. With Bufkit soundings
showing dryer air towards the surface, if storms do become stronger
up to severe limits, downburst winds up to 50-60mph would be the
primary hazard.

Otherwise, temperatures so far this afternoon have ranged in the mid
80s to low 90s. For tonight, expect temperatures in the upper
60s and low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 151 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

The upper level trough is progged to remain over the region on
Tuesday, with the frontal boundary remaining stationary in our
vicinity before pushing southeast into our area by the evening. As a
result, additional 40-60% chances for showers/thunderstorms exist,
with the better chances during the afternoon and early evening. With
increased cloud cover, temperatures will be similar to today,
ranging in the mid to upper 80s, and reaching the low 90s over
portions of south-central MO.

By Wednesday, the trough will begin pushing east of the area, but
not before bringing additional 20-40% chances of showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon.

A pattern change will begin Thursday morning, with upper level
ridging taking over the central CONUS. Despite this pattern, models
are still hinting at daily chances (~20%) of afternoon showers. As
of right now, much of the area should remain dry.

With the ridging pattern raising mid level heights, temperatures
will begin to warm up again into the low to mid 90s towards the end
of the week and into the weekend. Some locations could see heat
index values between 100-105 degrees - which would be below/right at
our Heat Advisory criteria - however we`ll need to continue
monitoring this excessive heat potential as we get closer to
this timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the entire
forecast period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible later this afternoon and evening, primarily at KSGF and
KJLN. With confidence still low regarding whether or not these
will reach the terminals, continued the use of PROB30 groups
for these two terminals between 21Z-02Z. Otherwise, current
southeasterly surface winds between 5-10kts will begin to shift
out of the south before becoming light and variable overnight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melto
LONG TERM...Melto
AVIATION...Melto