079
FXUS63 KSGF 222312
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
512 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of flurries this evening into Thursday morning. Low
  chance (10-30%) of a light dusting across central Missouri
  and the eastern Ozarks.

- There is a 20% chance of precipitation across far southern
  Missouri this weekend. Confidence in precip type, amounts, or
  impacts is low.

- High confidence in daily afternoon temperatures reaching above
  freezing areawide Saturday into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 124 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

A few high clouds have moved across southern Missouri this
afternoon; otherwise, dry conditions have prevailed with 20-25
degree dew point depressions common across the region. Gusty
southwest winds will decrease this evening into the overnight as
mixing subsides and the surface pressure gradient lessens.
Overnight lows will likely remain near or just above 20F for
many, particularly for locations where greater cloud cover moves
overhead.

There is some signal for a few flurries this evening through
Thursday morning with a pair of weak frontal passages. While
RAP data show only modest lift, there could be just enough
moisture to wring out a few snowflakes, particularly across
central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. To that end, a few HREF
members even show low chances (10-30%) of a dusting roughly
from Conway to Rolla. Farther south (generally south of I-44),
temperatures are forecast to climb above freezing in the
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 124 PM CST Wed
Jan 22 2025

An upper-level wave will pass through the Mississippi Valley
region early Friday, which will set up an east-to-west
temperature gradient across the CWA. Temperatures look to warm
into the 40s generally west of Highway 65 and only the 30s to
the east. Continued warm air advection will briefly push
temperatures near to above normal on Saturday areawide before
another cold front brings conditions closer back to average
Sunday and Monday.

This weekend, ensemble guidance shows strong agreement in
developing a zonal pattern aloft across much of the eastern
CONUS. Global models are still hanging onto low-end
precipitation chances across southern Missouri on Sunday as Gulf
moisture tries to advect northward. Cluster analysis reveals
important differences in the character of the 850 mb flow,
however, which will have implications on sensible weather for
our CWA. ECMWF and Canadian ensembles tend to favor a more
southerly solution, veering the low-level jet farther south and
limiting moisture return across southern Missouri. This is
currently the most likely solution. GEFS members, however, tend
to develop a more robust and persistent low-level jet, which
would increase precipitation chances for our area. If precipitation
does occur, precipitation type remains unclear as time of day
will affect temperatures. Overall, PoPs remain low (20% or
less).

Ensembles generally show mid-level ridging amplifying across
the region early next week, which would allow for the return of
above-normal temperatures. NBM percentile data support highs in
the upper 40s to mid 50s Tuesday and Wednesday.

Additional rain chances also arrive on Wednesday with the
return of southwesterly flow. This is the point when ensemble
solutions begin to diverge significantly, however, so
confidence in any details is low. Thus, we have stuck with NBM
PoPs of 20-30% for now.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 507 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

VFR conditions through the period. Some high clouds are
filtering through associated with a frontal passage that will be
mostly dry with some light snow flurries in the northeast of our
area toward central Missouri. Winds will shift more
northwesterly through the period and increase in speed, but will
not exceed 15 kts sustained.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Didio
LONG TERM...Didio
AVIATION...Nelson