857
FXUS63 KSGF 120708
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
208 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing shower and thunderstorm chances today with highest
  chances east of U.S. 65.

- Above normal temperatures likely this week with near record
  high temperatures Wednesday into Thursday.

- Additional shower and thunderstorm chances Friday into
  Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 208 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Synoptic overview and current conditions:  Water vapor imagery and
upper level analysis show the cutoff low continuing over
Louisiana. Another storm system was pushing into the
Oregon/California coastline. Regional and local radars were
showing a band of showers and embedded thunderstorms streaming
westward over our southeast CWA, but currently having a hard
time pushing too far westward given the low level drier air.

Today/tonight: As the upper low off the coast of OR/CA pushes
inland today, it will help to kick the nearly stationary low
over the past several days, gradually to the northeast. Moisture
should continue to expand northwestward over the area today and
we`ll see pops become more widespread during the afternoon with
increasing instability. Highest pops will be over our eastern
half of the CWA with the better energy and moisture from the
low there. Pops should start to diminish this evening with the
loss of daytime heating and be confined to mostly the eastern
CWA as we get past about 02-03z(9-10pm).

Tuesday: The low will continue to slowly lift northeast into the
OH valley on Tuesday with several spokes of energy moving around
the back side of the low across our eastern CWA. With afternoon
instability increasing as temperatures warm into the upper 70s
to low 80s, we could see additional scattered convection
develop...mainly in the eastern CWA where we have 20-40% chances
of rain going.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 208 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Wednesday/Thursday: Models are still show a strong signal for
well above normal temperatures with temperatures in the mid to
upper 80s. An upper ridge in between the departing low and the
upper trough moving into the plains from the west along with
strong low level warm advection bringing in 850 temperatures in
the 20-25 degree C range will be responsible for the increase in
temperatures. With dewpoints in the 60s to near 70 on Wednesday,
we could see some heat index values in the lower 90s. A frontal
boundary does push in from the west on Thursday which brings in
slightly cooler air and drier dewpoints, so the warmest
conditions on Thursday will shift into the eastern CWA.

Shower and thunderstorm chances: Chances for showers and
thunderstorms start to increase on Friday into Saturday. While
the best energy from that western trough lifts well northeast of
our area, some trailing energy could provide some additional
lift for convection. Ensemble instability and shear look
sufficient for thunderstorms, possibly even strong to severe
during this timeframe.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 636 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025

Isolated showers will continue to be possible through tonight,
mainly southeast of KSGF and KBBG. Shower and thunderstorm
activity will then increase during the day Monday, but the
western edge of this activity will be in the general area of
KBBG and KSGF, making predictability lower. Even if showers are
observed, most of the time it will be dry. With the increased
low level moisture, MVFR ceilings are expected at KSGF and KBBG,
with VFR remaining over KJLN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025

Record High Temperatures:

May 14:
KSGF: 88/2018
KJLN: 92/1947
KVIH: 89/1899

May 15:
KSGF: 87/1957
KUNO: 87/1957


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 14:
KSGF: 66/1911

May 15:
KSGF: 67/1941

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Titus
CLIMATE...Burchfield