105
FXUS63 KSGF 301854
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
154 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures, from 5 to 10 degree, and dry
  weather are expected for the next 7 days.

- The next potential chance for rainfall is not expected until
  early to middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 117 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Surface high pressure remains in control of the regions weather
and the pattern is expected to change very little over the next
week. Upper level ridging over the Great Lakes is forecast to
remain in place through the remainder of today and tonight.
This will allow for what some may call a, Chamber of Commerce
Day.

Skies will be mostly sunny and temperatures will be slightly
above average for this time of year with highs in the lower to
middle 80s. This is from 5 to 10 degrees warmer than average.
Thanks to the warmer temperatures, relative humidities will be
on the dry side from between 35 and 45 percent. The dry airmass
will remain in place with overnight lows in the upper 50s to
around 60 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 117 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Expectations for the middle of the week through the coming
weekend are essentially, wash, rinse and repeat each day. Model
and ensemble spreads for temperatures, dew points and
precipitation are nearly the same, within a 3 degree spread each
day. This will allow for great outdoor time, however, despite
the rainfall most received last week, conditions will begin to
dry out again. This may allow for the return of drought
deterioration and intensity for some locations. Along with the
warm temperatures will come relatively dry air. This will
combined to produce RH values in the 30 to 40 percent range
each day.

The next rain chances don`t come until the early to middle part
of next week looking a the longer range synoptic models and
ensembles. This would be tied to how deep and upper level
trough becomes as it moves across the northern plains Tuesday
into Thursday next week, depending on which model you choose.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Surface high pressure will be in control of the regions weather
over the next 24 to 36 hours with VFR flight conditions forecast.
Surface winds will be generally light and variable as a result
of the high pressure with some high clouds at or above 25kft
through the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch