914
FXUS63 KSGF 062300
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
500 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated to significant fire conditions Friday afternoon, with
  a Red Flag Warning in effect along and north of Interstate 44
  corridor in southeast KS and southwest MO. Gusty south to
  southwest winds return with gusts of 25 to 35 mph. Minimum
  afternoon relative humidity values around 15 to 30%.

- Warmer on Friday, before slightly cooler conditions return
  into Saturday. A warming trend Sunday into early next week,
  with increasing confidence (60-90% chance) for highs
  exceeding 70 degrees.

- Low rain chances (10-20%) Friday evening across central MO,
  with additional low chances (10-20%) across southern MO. Drier
  conditions exist Sunday into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 150 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2025

Through Tonight: A surface high has settled over the region
today, supporting lighter winds in the wake of an active pattern
the last few days. Mid-level height rises have supported
temperatures rebounding quickly into the area, with highs
reaching into the 50s. Additionally, drier air has settled into
the area with minimum afternoon relative humidity values around
25 to 35%. However, fire weather conditions are fairly limited
given the lack of winds. Expectation is for winds to increase
this evening ahead of the next approaching trough and system,
but does not overlap the same time period of low relative
humidities. Meanwhile, high level clouds increase in coverage
through the evening. A "milder" night with lows in the 40s
areawide, outside of a few upper 30s across the far east.

Friday: On Friday, a trough and associated low pressure system
eject eastward into the central CONUS. Moisture return remains
limited ahead of this system. Any rain chances remain low
(10-20%) across portions of central Missouri with this system`s
passage. At best, a few isolated showers slide through portions
of central Missouri into Friday evening. The main headlines and
focus will be on elevated to significant fire weather
conditions on Friday afternoon. This is discussed in greater
detail in the Fire Weather section of the AFD. Northwest winds
filter in behind the frontal passage, with wind gusts of 20 to
25 mph persisting through Friday evening before dissipating
Friday night. Lows Friday night dip into the middle to upper
30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 150 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2025

Saturday: Behind the frontal passage, high pressure gradually
settles into the central CONUS. Northerly flow on Saturday will
keep the area cooler with highs near normal in the lower to
middle 50s. Additionally, cloud cover will persist across the
southern half of the area with passage of a secondary system as
the main upper-level trough sweeps across the Southern Plains.
PoPs remain low (10-20%) along and south of Highway 60.
Additional evaluation of this system will be needed as we
progress over the next 24 to 36 hours, as a slight shift north
in the track could support an increase of PoPs across southern
Missouri on Saturday.

Sunday into Next Week: Upper level ridging returns in full force
by Sunday into early next week, supporting a warming trend and
drier conditions. Highs reach into the upper 50s to lower 60s on
Sunday, with even more warming Monday through Wednesday with
highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. NBM probabilities for
exceeding 70 degrees for highs early next week are around 60-90%
areawide. Ensemble guidance and WPC Cluster Analysis depict the
return of unsettled weather by mid to late next week.
Confidence remains low at this time on exact timing and details,
stay tuned for additional information.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 458 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2025

High confidence in VFR conditions with high clouds persisting
through Friday morning. Winds will increase out of the south
overnight with gusts over 25kts likely during the day Friday.
Should see a gradually switch of the winds from south to
southwest in the morning and then more westerly towards the end
of the TAF period. Low level wind shear is likely at the sites
overnight.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 150 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2025

Elevated to significant fire weather conditions return to the
area on Friday in wake of a departing high pressure system and
a deepening trough across the Desert Southwest. An associated
lee-side low pressure develops east of Rockies and quickly
ejects eastward on Friday. Mid-level height rises ahead of the
approaching trough will support 850 mb temperatures rising to 8
to 11 Celsius. As this warmer air mass mixes down, surface highs
reach into the upper 60s to lower 70s. A tightening pressure
gradient ahead of the surface low will allow the return of
strong south to southwesterly winds through Friday morning into
the afternoon. A look at the latest guidance in conjunction with
forecast soundings, the most likely scenario is wind speeds
around 15 to 20 mph and gusts of 25 to 35 mph. This is supported
by momentum transfer with strong mixing down to the surface. It
is plausible a few gusts exceed 35 mph along and north of
Interstate 44 through the afternoon, as depicted by HREF
probabilities around 30-50% for wind gusts greater than 35 mph.
From a fire weather standpoint, 20ft winds are also favorable
for fire weather conditions, around 15 to 25 mph. As the cold
front moves into the area mid afternoon, winds become more
westerly and a drier airmass overtakes the area. The driest
period in the late afternoon into the early evening overlaps the
period of strongest wind gusts, supporting the presence of
elevated to significant fire weather conditions. Relative
humidity (RH) values are forecast to drop to around 25 to 35%
areawide, with confidence increasing in even lower RH values
along a corridor from southeast Kansas into southwest Missouri.
Latest HREF guidance, which has performed well in capturing the
worst case scenario, depicts RH values in 25th percentile around
15 to 20%. Confidence is increasing in RH values in the teens.
This setup supports a short window, generally 4 to 6 hours
between noon to 6 pm for Red Flag Warning criteria being met.
Any burning on Friday is highly discouraged outside of fire
personnel, with rapid and chaotic fire behavior potential
increasing.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 6 PM CST Friday for KSZ073-097-
     101.
MO...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 6 PM CST Friday for MOZ066>068-
     077>080-088>090-093-094-101-102.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Burchfield
FIRE WEATHER...Perez