730
FXUS63 KSGF 091116
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
516 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Today will be warm with southwesterly wind gusts up to 30 mph.
  Gusty winds will persist into Wednesday, particularly across
  the eastern Ozarks. Winds will shift to the northwest with
  gusts up to 35 mph.

- Near to above average temperatures today through Thursday.

- Cold air settles in Friday night through Sunday. Overnight
  wind chills in the teens to single digits will occur.

- Precipitation chances remain less than 10% areawide through
  Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 243 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Today will feel warm with mostly sunny skies and highs reaching
the mid 50s. Though, the pressure gradient begins to tighten
today as a low pressure system works its way through the Great
Lakes region. Winds will be out of the southwest today and will
be gusty up to 30 mph. We are expecting a dry front to move
through tonight which will bring even stronger northwesterly
winds overnight and into the start of Wednesday. Wind gusts will
be up to 35 mph tonight across the area so be sure to secure
any outdoor holiday decorations you have that may be susceptible
to gusty winds. A wind advisory is not expected at this time as
ensembles are keeping us below that threshold with only a 30-40%
chance of seeing wind gusts >45 mph.

Skies clear out by late morning on Wednesday but we will be a
bit cooler in the upper 40s due to the frontal passage.
Northwesterly winds will slowly diminish through the day but
will still be gusty up to 25 mph through the afternoon and
evening hours. Clouds start to move in again Wednesday night
ahead of the next surface trough that starts to make its way
south over the Great Plains region. Lows will still be chilly in
the upper 20s to lower 30s due to the lingering CAA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 243 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

The trend that has been ongoing the past few forecast updates is
happening once again. Models continue to slow this stronger
front down and keep our temperatures a bit warmer with each
update (about 10 degrees warmer). As mentioned in the previous
discussion, it seems that the warmer solution wants to play out
over us. The CAA in each update seems to be weaker and lags
later and later. The temperature spread for this weekend is
about 10 degrees or more from Friday through Sunday. For
example, the NBM has the spread for Sunday`s highs at almost 15
degrees with highs either in the low 40s or upper 20s. Again,
this is in response to models not having a good handle on our
next cold front. Though, what has stayed the same is the fact
that it is still expected to be a dry front and we will see
cooler temperatures this weekend.

A warm front will swing over on Thursday ahead of the incoming
low pressure system. Our winds will turn southerly again on
Thursday and even with partly cloudy skies, we are expected to
reach the mid 50s across the area. In addition to ensemble
guidance changing the timing and strength of our cold front this
weekend, there is evidence of a weaker front to pass through on
Friday during the day, then another stronger front to pass
through on Saturday. Winds turn back to the north on Friday but
highs will still reach the upper 40s to mid 50s. Lows that night
do get chilly and bottom out in the teens and lower 20s.
Saturday will feature another shot of cold air and it will be a
chilly and cloudy day with highs only reaching the 30s. Since
the stronger front has lagged a bit, Saturday night will be the
coolest night with lows in the teens and single digit wind
chills. Sunday`s weather will be similar to Saturday but skies
start to clear out as surface high pressure starts to move in.

The start of next week has a 15-20% chance for rain on Monday
as a departing low tries to bring us a few rain showers.
Confidence is low for any widespread rain at this time. Monday
looks to be cloudy with highs in the mid 40s with light
southerly flow.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 511 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

VFR through the period with southwesterly winds increasing this
afternoon to 25 knots. Winds stay elevated through the day, have
included wind shear in the forecast. High clouds build in later
today.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Soria