442
FXUS63 KSGF 150925
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
325 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog with visibilities less than a quarter-mile early
  this morning mainly along and east of a Versailles to Houston
  to West Plains line. Additional patchy fog is expected tonight
  into Saturday morning for areas mainly east of HWY 63.

- Pleasant today with sunny skies and near normal temperatures
  expected.

- A low pressure system will bring rain and windy conditions to
  the area from Sunday night into Monday night.

- Much cooler temperatures around the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 204 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

Surface high pressure will continue to move northeast into Great
Lakes region and our winds turn southeasterly as a surface low
builds over the Northern Plains today. Expect one last sunny day
to end the week with highs in the 60s and lows in the 30s and
40s tonight. Patchy fog may occur again tonight for areas east
of Highway 63.

Clouds begin to move in on Saturday as the influx of moisture
begins. The surface low tightens the pressure gradient a bit by
Saturday bringing us southerly wind gusts around 25-30 mph by
the afternoon hours. Highest wind gusts will occur west of
Highway 65. These breezy southerly winds will help to advect
warm moist air to the region that will assist in setting the
foundation for the rainfall we receive at the start of next
week. Though Saturday will remain dry, expect highs in the 60s
with warmer overnight lows in the 40s and 50s due to lingering
cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 204 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

Overall, the long term forecast hasn`t changed much since the
last discussion. All the themes we have been messaging are
staying the same.

Sunday-Monday: An abundance of moisture will be in place for
this rain event to start the week due to an atmospheric river
coming off of the Gulf of Mexico straight into the Plains.
Model guidance is showing PWAT values between 1.0-1.5" over the
area which would be above the 90th percentile for us this time
of year. Though, the best axis of moisture seems to be set up
over southern KS and central OK. This could clip our SE KS/SW MO
counties and there are still uncertainties in the track of this
system. Gusty winds will also be a concern as the pressure
gradient tightens on Monday as this trough digs into the Central
Plains. To stay consistent with the previous discussion, lets
dive into some probabilistic forecasting for rainfall, wind
gusts, and convection potential.

To preface, model guidance may go back and forth as we get
closer to the event. Any probabilistic value that increases
tonight may decrease again during the day Friday. Though, it`s
important to determine model trends and note any significant
changes. Ultimately, it will be the location and magnitude of
synoptic and mesoscale features that determine the exact
location of heaviest rainfall.

-The NBM 72-hour probability for rainfall exceeding 2" is around
 40-45% from our southeastern Kansas counties into west- central
 Missouri. This has increased 10% from our last forecast
 discussion.

-Probabilities of exceeding 3" drop off to less than 20% over
 these same areas. This has stayed the same since the last
 discussion.

-Sustained south to southeast winds of 15-30 mph look
 increasingly likely along with gusts up to 40 mph. NBM
 probabilities of gusts reaching 45 mph are running in the
 30-50% range north of the I-44 corridor. This has increased by
 20% since the last discussion. If this upward trend continues,
 we will have to monitor for a Wind Advisory that day for far SW
 MO.

-Instability still looks to be limited but with the gusty winds
 in place, we could see a high shear low cape set up. The CSU
 Machine Learning Severe probability forecast has 15% severe
 weather probabilities for Monday across portions of Texas and
 Oklahoma with the northernmost extent just clipping southwest
 Missouri. Not sure on the severity yet, but a few rumbles of
 thunder are looking more probable.

Tuesday-Thursday: After the first cold front moves through early
Tuesday, another stronger cold front will move through on
Wednesday. A blocking pattern sets up over the west coast by
mid- week. This will help to usher in some colder arctic air
making for an abrupt pattern change for the end of next week.
The cooler air will slowly move into the area starting on
Wednesday with highs that day in the 40s and 50s. By Thursday,
the CAA is here and highs may only get into the lower 40s that
day. We are the most certain in much cooler temperatures to end
the week. There are still some discrepancies with how cold it
will get and how the precipitation situation will unfold due to
the movement of that secondary low. One scenario would be the
warm conveyor belt sticking around a bit longer which would be
tough for us to overcome to get any frozen precipitation.
Another solution is for us to get hit with the dry slot, and for
us to get little to no precipitation. As of now, our dewpoints
do take a 10 degree hit from Tuesday into Wednesday, but we
still have rain in the forecast. Can`t rule out a snowflake or
two with this system, we will just have to monitor the track of
that trough very closely in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1043 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period with mostly
clear skies. Winds will remain light and variable, becoming
southerly on Friday with speeds less than 15 mph.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MOZ056>058-
     070-071-082-083-097-098-106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Burchfield