222
FXUS63 KSGF 281731
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1131 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and windy today (30-40 mph gusts, 19-25% RH) leading to
  significant and pockets of extreme fire weather. Will be
  issuing a red flag warning from 10 am through 8 pm.

- Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms possible early to
  mid-next week. Hints of strong to severe thunderstorm
  potential on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 136 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Synoptic overview and current conditions:  Water vapor imagery and
upper level analysis show a pronounced split flow over the CONUS
with strong northwest flow from the plains through the northern
and mid Mississippi valley to a trough along the east coast.
Within this northwest flow a polar jet streak was shifting
southeast out of Alberta into the northern plains and upper
Mississippi valley. An upper level low was cutoff off the
California coast with an amplified upper ridge across the Great
Basin. Subtropical jet was flowing west to east south of the
cutoff low and across the deep south. Dry conditions were
located across the area with nighttime humidity levels from the
40s to near 70 percent. An upper level shortwave was pushing
into the northern plains and upper Mississippi valley. This
feature is forecast to dive southeast into the Great Lakes
region today which will bring a front through the area tonight.

Dry and windy with Fire Weather concerns today: Ahead of the
front, we are expecting winds to begin gusting this morning with
some gusts through the day up to 40 mph. Forecast soundings show
mixing up to around 850 mb with transport winds of 30 to 35 kts
across the CWA looking reasonable. Also would mix down some
drier air to the surface and we have gone with a mix of
NBM10/RAP/CONSShort for dewpoints today. Humidity levels will
dip into the upper teens to mid 20s. The combination of low
humidity and gusty winds up to 40 mph will produce widespread
significant to pockets of extreme fire weather conditions today.
A red flag warning will be issued this morning to account for
this and will go from 10 am through 8 pm. Highs today should
reach the upper 60s to low 70s.

Tonight: The cold front should come through tonight with no
precipitation expected with the frontal passage. Lows should dip
back down into the middle to upper 30s.

Saturday: Cold air advection will take place across the CWA on
Saturday behind the front and we can say goodbye to those 70
degree temperatures(for a bit anyway). Highs in the north are
expected in the mid 40s to the mid 50s in the south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 136 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

The northern stream trough will begin to shift east Saturday
night into Sunday, while a couple of upper level waves will
start to track eastward and bring our area with the next chance
for precipitation.

Wave number 1: This one will move into the area Sunday night
into Monday. Strong 850mb winds(50-55kts) ahead of the low late
Sunday into Sunday night will begin to draw Gulf moisture
northward into the area and several hundred joules of MUCAPE.
Enough for some Thunder mention and 40-50 pops.

Wave number 2: A stronger wave with better upper level jet
dynamics will move into the central and southern plains on
Tuesday. Much better Gulf moisture will be drawn northward and
we`ll likely see PW values above the 90th percentile for this
time of year. Best shear/CAPE values will be south of the area
over the southern plains into the lower Mississippi valley where
the best severe weather chances will exist. Can`t rule out some
strong to possibly severe storms this far north. The main upper
level feature then moves into the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday with continuing precipitation with moisture wrapping
around the low. Surface temperatures look too warm for anything
but rain at this time though colder air aloft gets wrapped
around the low into the area. Will need to keep an eye on this
for some minor snow potential, but for now it looks like an all
rain signal.

Temperatures for Monday and Tuesday will be mild again in the
60s to near 70, but will drop back into the 40s to low 50s in
the cooler air mass behind the 2nd system on Wednesday and the
low to mid 50s on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1126 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

A cold front approaching the region will allow for gusty
westerly winds through this afternoon. winds will weaken after
sunset as the boundary layer begins to decouple. Winds will
than shift out of the north to northwest after midnight as the
cold front moves through the region. A few high clouds will be
associated with the front but will have no impacts.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST this evening for KSZ073-097-
     101.
MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST this evening for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>082-088>097-101>105.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Hatch