254
FXUS63 KSGF 261000
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
500 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near average temperatures the next few days. Isolated to
  scattered showers and possibly some thunder this weekend.
  Highest rain chances west of Highway 65. Rainfall amounts
  generally less than 0.50 inches, with some areas staying dry.

- A more widespread round of showers and thunderstorms (50-80%
  chance) looks to occur next week, with the greatest chance of
  occurrence during the middle to end of the week. There will be
  the potential for some locally heavy rainfall with this
  system, but confidence is still limited at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

An upper level disturbance is currently moving across the
region early this morning. Some showers and a few thunderstorms
have developed ahead of the disturbance across eastern Kansas
early this morning. The upper level disturbance will continue
to lift northeast this morning keeping the better lift and
instability west and north of the area the rest of the overnight
hours into this morning. Some light rain showers are pushing
into extreme southeastern Kansas and will continue to weaken as
they move further east, mainly remaining along and west of I-49
this morning. There will be some weak MUCAPE west of I-49 which
could result in a few rumbles of thunder this morning but the
better thunder potential will be northwest of the area. This
morning activity should start to dissipate by the mid morning
hours.

Another upper level disturbance will move southeast across the
central Plains this afternoon/evening and across the area
tonight into Sunday morning. Uncapped MUCAPE will develop and
move east into the western portions of the area later this
afternoon then east to near Highway 63 this evening into Sunday
morning. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will develop
and occur at times as the disturbance slowly moves through the
area late this afternoon into Sunday morning. The better chances
for this activity will be along and west of Highway 65. This
activity will weaken as it moves east where instability will be
weaker. Not all locations will be affected by this scattered
activity especially further to the east along and east of
Highway 63. No severe weather is expected. Localized rainfall
amounts around one half inch will be possible across portions of
the area west of Highway 65 but most locations will remain less
than this. Rainfall amounts will decrease to the east across
the area.

Highs will range from the middle 70s across central Missouri to
the low/middle 80s across southeastern Kansas and far
southwestern Missouri both today and again on Sunday. Lows
tonight into Sunday morning and again Sunday night into Monday
morning will range from the middle 50s across south central
Missouri to the middle 60s across extreme southeastern Kansas.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

An upper level trough will dig south across the west coast
Sunday night into Monday, resulting in a southwest upper level
flow pattern pattern setting up over the region ahead of the
trough early next week. Highs will continue to warm into the
lower to middle 80s across much of the area on Monday and
Tuesday. Mainly dry conditions will occur across the area on
Monday with the trough remaining well to the west across the
west coast on Monday.

The upper level trough is then expected to move east across the
region mid to late week. The ensemble model members suggest
that this system will be stronger with better moisture return
bringing better widespread chances to the area, currently
50-80%. There continues to be differences between the model
members on the structural and the exact track and timing of the
system and continue to trend slightly slower. The ensemble
model members also continue to show the potential for the
remnants of Hurricane Polo off the west coast of Mexico to track
to the northeast into the Baja. There remains the potential for
the remnants getting pulled the into the upper level trough
across the southwestern U.S. that will move through the region
during the middle to end of the week. If the remnants get
pulled into the trough this would increase the amount of
moisture available with the system and lead to several rounds of
rainfall and could lead to the the potential for some heavy
rainfall developing across portions of the region but there is
still uncertainty on the exact track and where any bands would
set up at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 500 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

A few isolated showers will move across portions of extreme
southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri early this morning
and cloud clip the KJLN site. This activity will weaken as it
moves east across the area this morning.

Isolated showers and a few storms will be possible this evening,
with additional scattered showers and storms at times tonight
into Sunday morning mainly west of Highway 63. Brief MVFR to IFR
conditions could occur with the heavier showers and storms late
tonight into early Sunday morning. Winds will generally be 10kts
or less out of the south to southeast through the TAF period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise