675
FXUS63 KSGF 201049
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
549 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near average temperatures and dry for the rest of the week,
  with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.

- Below average temperatures late in the weekend into early
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Models depict an upper level ridge west of the area, with the
closed upper high centered over the four corners region. The
showers and thunderstorms that occurred yesterday
afternoon/evening quickly diminished overnight, leading to drier
conditions early this morning. Overnight temperatures have
ranged in the upper 60s to low 70s across the area.

A weak cold front has been making its way south through the
CWA, ushering in drier air and near normal temperatures back to
the region. This should diminish any rain chances during the
day, however kept in a 10-20% chance of storms along the MO/AR
border closer to where the frontal boundary will be located as
it continues to make its way south into Arkansas. CAMs continue
to show any activity remaining south of the area, so most if
not all of the area should stay dry.

Northerly winds will usher in drier air, with dewpoints dropping
into the low to mid 60s by late afternoon. With 850mb
temperatures ranging in the 18-20C range, and only a 2 degree
difference between the 25th and 75th percentiles, there`s high
confidence in afternoon highs ranging in the upper 80s to low
90s - which is closer to average for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

The dry conditions will continue into the long term (pops around
10% or less) as northerly flow remains over the region with the
upper high out west. Temperatures will continue to be near
normal through the weekend, with 850mb temperatures ranging
between 16-18C, bringing highs in the upper 80s to low 90s
through at least Saturday.

However by the end of the weekend, models show a strong upper
level trough moving into the Great Lakes region, with a surface
cold front surging south through the area on Sunday. As a
result, we`ll see a much needed cooldown, with good chances for
below normal temperatures. CPC`s 6-10 day temperature outlook
highlights a 70-90% chance for below normal temperatures between
August 25-29 (normal temperatures for this time of year range
between 85-89 degrees). Current forecast highs range in the 70s
to low 80s through at least midweek, with overnight lows in the
50s. However it should be noted that there exists a larger
spread between the 25th and 75th percentiles, leading to
slightly lower confidence. We`ll still see a cooldown, however
the exact details of specific temperatures will still need to be
ironed out as we get more confidence in the depth/intensity of
the cooler airmass.

15-35% chances for rain return towards the beginning of next
week, however since this is still a ways out, confidence remains
too low to go into more detail.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 545 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the entirety of the forecast
period. Additional low chances (<20%) for isolated
showers and thunderstorms exist for KBBG primarily this morning,
however with guidance continuing to keep any activity out of
the area, did not include in the TAFs. Otherwise, northeasterly
surface winds will range between 5-10kts through today before
diminishing below 5kts overnight tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melto
LONG TERM...Melto
AVIATION...Melto