174
FXUS63 KSGF 072301
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
501 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 30-60% chance for drizzle tonight through Saturday afternoon.
  Fog may reduce visibility to one mile tonight across the Ozark
  Plateau.

- Sub-freezing temperatures paired with multiple chances for
  winter precip are looking likely (60-90% chance) as early as
  Monday Night/Tuesday next week. Predictability of important
  details remains low at this time, however chances for a wintry
  mix causing at least some impacts continue to increase, with
  the highest chances being Monday night/Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: The largely zonal flow
pattern continues across the region. Strong warm air advection
was occuring at 850mb with overcast conditions across the area.
Temperatures varied across the area with middle 30s across
central Missouri and low to middle 40s across the rest of the
area. There was just enough elevated CAPE to produce more of a
sprinkle/shower mixture this morning and afternoon. Higher low
level moisture was located just southwest of the area and will
move in this evening. The morning sounding showed a dry layer
just below 850mb therefore gusty winds have been able to mix
down from this layer at times.

Drizzle Tonight through Saturday: Expectations are for the low
level jet/warm air advection to continue to increase/nose into
the area tonight. This increase in low level moisture through
1km will likely create more drizzle, especially after 9pm.
Temperatures may decrease slightly towards wetbulb with areas
near Maries and Phelps counties perhaps dropping close to
32-34deg for a few hours before increasing through the night. A
fairly widespread area of drizzle should persist through the
night and into Saturday morning. We have increased pops into the
40-60% range for the drizzle with a few hundredths of an inch
expected. Stratus build down should also allow for visibilities
to drop below 1 mile at times (HREF probs of vis less than 1
mile at 40-50%) along the Ozark Plateau.

A cold front will drop into the area during the morning and
afternoon hours which will act to decrease the drizzle chances
however cloud cover may be stubborn to erode given the northerly
flow. This will greatly impact high temps. We continue to go
with the colder guidance for highs tomorrow with low/mid 40s
north of Springfield and low to middle 50s across southern
Missouri. If clouds clear faster then we could see warmer temps
than this however confidence is not high that clouds erode fast
enough.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

Sunday: High pressure is likely to build into the central US
with dry conditions. NBM high temp spreads are small with most
locations reaching the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Next Week: A complex and impactful time period is looking to
take shape as systems move through early to mid week. The
combination of a broad west/southwest flow aloft for most of the
week will allow for a stream of shortwaves to move up into the
area from the southwest. The first shortwave looks to arrive
into the central plains Monday afternoon and evening. A low
level jet/warm nose looks to develop across Texas and Oklahoma
with it nosing towards the area. At the surface, high pressure
across the Dakotas will continue to funnel a shallow cold
airmass south into the area. There continues to be questions as
to how far south the surface and elevated freezing line makes it
Monday night into Tuesday.

Trends over the last 12 hours seem to indicate a potentially
stronger warm nose reaching the area which could create more of
a wintry mix across the area, perhaps increasing our freezing
rain chances/amounts. At this time range it can be difficult
for global models to resolve the warm nose and the shallow cold
airmass. Therefore expect some continued fluctuations in the
forecasts over the next day or two. The latest NBM continues to
show a 30-50% chance of at least a glaze of ice south of
Interstate 44 with greater than 50% chance for at least an inch
of snow north of I-44. There continues to be matches to our ice
storm/freezing rain climatology, however the duration of the
precip may not match as it does appear to be a fairly quick
hitting system. If the system slows down then obviously this
could increase the concern.

There will likely be at least some sort of break in the precip
either Tuesday evening or Tuesday night however the next
shortwave will be quick to enter the southwest US and southern
plains by Wednesday. Trends over the last 12 hours on this
system have now been for a slightly stronger/deeper trough which
could allow for a farther south surface low, farther south warm
nose and farther south freezing line. This would increase the
snow probs versus ice. There are actually a few components of
the heavy snow climatology showing up now with this system given
the phased upper level jet structure, 850mb low track near/over
the area and surface low track southeast of the area. That
being said, latest NBM probs for snow greater than 4 inches is
less than 30 percent with higher probs north of the area.

The latest Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index continues
to indicate a 40-50% chance of at least minor impacts from
winter precip, especially north of I-44 into northern Missouri
which seems to be based mainly on the snow component. We
suspect these percentages will increase as we get closer. We
also think that the details of these events will become more
clear as we get closer to Sunday as the systems become better
sampled by the upper air network and in the range of high res
guidance. Everyone is urged to stay up on the forecast as we
head through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 500 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

Persistent low-level clouds continue to hold across the area
through tonight into Saturday. Ceilings through this evening
remain MVFR around 1500 to 2500 feet, before further
deteriorating into tonight, becoming IFR to LIFR. This will
feature areas of light drizzle, reduced visibilities around 2
to 4 miles, and ceilings around 300 to 700 feet. Even some areas
of patchy fog may overspread the terminals, though confidence
is low at this time. Additionally, LLWS around 40 knots can be
expected over KBBG and KSGF through early Saturday morning. As
light drizzle tapers off into Saturday morning, flight
conditions will be slow to improve with reduced ceilings.
Meanwhile winds will remain out of the southeast through
tonight, before turning more northwesterly with a frontal
passage Saturday morning. Wind gusts up to 20 knots.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Perez