429
FXUS63 KSGF 171129
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
629 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms will move through the area early
  Saturday morning before sunrise. Severe storms are possible
  especially along and south of I-44 by late morning/early
  afternoon. All severe hazards are possible with a widespread
  high wind threat being the most probable threat.

- Flooding is a concern with the line of thunderstorms moving
  through on Saturday with many storms training over the same
  areas. Areas along and east of Highway 65 have the best chance
  of seeing the higher rainfall totals. Widespread totals will
  be around 1-2 inches with localized amounts up to 4 inches.

- Cooler temperatures in the 60s will occur on Sunday behind the
  front. Slight warm up occurs on Monday followed by high
  temperatures in the 60s and 70s with lows in the 40s for the
  rest of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 238 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Mid-level high pressure is still churning over the Ohio River
Valley early this morning with a surface low beginning to push
north near the Red River. This low has brought a few high level
clouds to the area. Winds will be breezy today due to the
tightening of the pressure gradient as we are in between a
building ridge to our east and a digging trough to our west. Today
will be partly sunny with some clouds hanging around for most
of the day. Highs will be warm in the low to mid 80s with breezy
southwesterly winds gusting up to 25 mph. Tonight will be partly
cloudy with lows in the mid 60s.

There is still potential for severe weather to occur starting very
early Saturday morning before sunrise. Storms could start as
early as 4-6 AM starting over SE KS. This would be the most
favorable time for elevated discrete cells to occur over SE KS
and SW MO ahead of the cold front. Hail up to 1 inch would be
the biggest threat in those storms (700-500mb lapse rates at
7-7.5 C/km), but all severe weather hazards are possible. Then,
as the morning goes on, the severe threat will begin to ramp up
as the surface cold front inches closer from west to east.
These storms will begin to transition to a more linear mode with
a line that moves through the southern half of the state
through most of the afternoon. SPC still has the highest risk
for severe weather (Slight Risk 2/5) occurring along I-44 and
south. Again, all modes of severe weather are possible (hail,
tornado, wind) with a widespread high wind threat being the most
probable threat. This line could form into a QLCS which would
lead to more of a spin-up tornado threat along the line as it
pushes through especially with the surface based low-level shear
increasing. Most of the severe weather for our area will be
done around Saturday 6-8 PM. Though, we may be stuck with
lingering stratiform rain showers as the secondary cold front
pushes through.

Since these storms will congeal into a line by early afternoon,
they will likely train over the same area bringing multiple
rounds rain. The moisture content in the atmosphere will also be
higher than usual as PWAT values will be near 1.5-1.8"
especially over eastern Ozarks which is at or above our daily
max which would normally be at 1.5". Rainfall amounts are still
coming into agreement but it appears that the higher rainfall
totals will be where the Slight Risk for excessive rainfall is
located which is mainly east of Highway 65. Models are showing
widespread rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with localized spots
of up to 4 inches. Expect nuisance flooding especially in urban
areas, but unfortunately this rainfall will not alleviate the
drought conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 238 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Sunday will be cooler with highs in the mid 60s with sunny
skies. The surface high will shift east of the area by Monday
and another surface front will develop in the plains ahead of
the next upper wave in the northern plains and upper Mississippi
valley. Highs on Monday will return to above average in the mid
to upper 70s. The increased surface pressure gradient on Monday
will lead to some gusty winds, possibly up to 30 mph at
times. Another weak front will move through late Monday into
Monday night. Little or no instability is expected and rain
chances are <10%.

Temperatures cool back down on Tuesday behind this second
front, back into the mid 60s to around 70 which will continue
into Wednesday. Lows may dip into the mid to upper 30s over the
eastern Ozarks by Tuesday night, with most of the area in the
low to mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

VFR conditions will persist through most of the day today with
breezy southwesterly winds gusting up to 25 mph by this
afternoon. Rain starts to move into the area overnight with
showers and thunderstorms starting west in southeast Kansas and
spreading east into southwestern Missouri by Saturday morning. A
few of these storms may be severe.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Soria