817
FXUS63 KSGF 191111
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
511 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Today through Tuesday: Highs in the teens and twenties and
  lows in the single digits, with daytime wind chills in the
  single digits to teens and nightly values of 8 to -8. This
  will create dangerously cold conditions for outdoor and
  sensitive groups.

- Precipitation chances remain 10% or less today through
  Thursday. Confidence is increasing in moderating temperatures
  by mid to late this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1243 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

Light snow was falling across portions of south central Missouri
early this morning with a dusting to an inch noted across the
West Plains area. This was associated with midlevel (700-500mb)
moisture, weak frontogenesis and isentropic accent along the
295K surface. Otherwise, cold air was filtering into the region
with a fairly tight surface pressure gradient providing for
breezy (20-25mph gusts) conditions. The winds will remain breezy
into the early morning hours for most areas before surface high
pressure moving across the plains makes its way into the Ozarks
this afternoon.

The airmass moving into the region will be rather cold with high
temperatures in the teens to around 20 degrees today. This will
be despite some clearing in cloud cover with only few to
scattered clouds by this afternoon. The combination of the cold
temperatures and the breezy winds early in the day will produce
wind chills in the 3 to -8 degree range early. As winds drop
off this afternoon, wind chills will be slightly less. In
general, temperatures will be from 20 to 25 degrees below
average for today.

Surface high pressure will move nearly overhead tonight which
will allow temperatures to drop into the single digits. With
winds falling off however by early this evening, overnight wind
chills will be from 5 to -8 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1243 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer Monday and Tuesday
with highs in the lower to middle 20s. Overnight lows will be
rather cold however with lows in the single digits to lower
teens. This will allow for additional periods of minimum wind
chills around 0 to -10 degrees each morning.

The good part may be that mostly dry conditions are expected to
occur and persist into early in the week given the dry air mass
in place. There has been a hint in the models for some flurries
with a passing wave Monday night, but this will be dependent on
how much moisture can be realized with chances rather low (<10%)
in this occurring.

Wednesday into Saturday: The upper level pattern does shift
into the middle of the week and towards the weekend. Mid-level
height rises occur in the region Wednesday in advance of
another upper level trough and what looks to be a dry cold
frontal passage into Thursday morning. The pattern change should
allow temperatures Wednesday to climb into the 30s to near 40.
The GFS and Canadian do have a clipper system noted that may
bring some moisture to portions of central Missouri but this
would have to make a rather long trek from the Northwest
Territories to the Ozarks which may wring out any moisture
before it can get to the region by Thursday morning.

As we head into Thursday and the start of the weekend, most
guidance continues to show a moderation in the cold
temperatures to nearer average for this time of year with highs
in the upper 30s to lower 40s. As the warming trend occurs as
the upper pattern becomes more zonal, models dig a fairly strong
trough into the western CONUS into the weekend. If the ensembles
are correct and follow the synoptic models, this might allow for
some southerly winds to develop allowing moisture to make its
way into the region and bring some precipitation to the area for
next Sunday. This however is a long way out and confidence is
on the low side for this to occur. Otherwise, a drier pattern
remains likely through the week. Continue to monitor the
forecast for updates.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 504 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

Northerly to northwesterly surface winds will be gusty during
the day today with gusts from 20 to 25kts at times before
falling off below 10mph this evening. No ceiling or visibility
impacts are forecast.

Surface high pressure moving over the region will then bring
calm winds and clear skies to the region into Monday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch