984
FXUS63 KSGF 101053
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
553 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances (30-50%) along and
  north of Interstate 44 through this morning into the
  afternoon. Low chances (5%) for a few isolated strong
  thunderstorms to produce damaging wind gusts of 50-60 mph, in
  addition to localized heavy rainfall.

- Hot and humid conditions persist for portions of the area
  today with highs in the lower to middle 90s, with heat index
  values approaching 100 degrees.

- Additional shower and thunderstorm chances (30-60%) this
  evening into tonight. Increasing confidence in localized heavy
  rainfall and the potential for flash flooding across southeast
  KS into west central MO.

- Daily rain chances (30-50%) persist through early next week
  with temperatures returning to near normal for mid August.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Today-Tonight: Mid-level ridging has become suppressed and is
pushing east of the region as a trough digs into the Central
Plains. A front is draped across portions of eastern KS into
central IA, and has been the focus for showers and thunderstorms
over the last 24 to 48 hours. Radar imagery depicts the presence
of an MCS tracking near the frontal boundary in north central
KS, supported by a nocturnal low-level jet. CAMs have mixed
output on the evolution of this MCS into the morning hours,
varying from remaining completely north of our area to
widespread showers and thunderstorms along the outflow dropping
south. Given this short-term uncertainty, we will continue to
monitor mesoscale trends to get a better handle on potential
impacts to the area.

As mentioned above, there remains a bit of uncertainty on
potential shower and thunderstorm chances in the area through
this morning. The general trend supports at least some scattered
showers and thunderstorms making it into the area, particular
north of Interstate 44 where rain chances (30-50%) remain
highest at this time. If confidence continues to increase in
this solution, an increase in short term PoPs may be warranted.
The environment is characterized by MUCAPE around 1000-2000
J/kg and marginal deep layer shear. This opens the door for a
few organized thunderstorms, capable of producing damaging wind
gusts of 50 to 60 mph. Additionally, localized heavy rainfall
may occur given high PWATs around 1.8 to 2.0 inches. On the
other hand, a few CAMs still keep the MCS and any remnant
outflows along the fringes of our area into central MO and
north. This scenario would keep areas south of Highway 54
mostly dry through this morning. Overall, guidance and
mesoscale trends lean towards at least some sort of outflow
kicking off scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area
this morning.

As we progress through the morning into the afternoon, the
extent of coverage of any lingering overnight MCS activity
becomes isolated in nature. Any residual boundaries in the area
may be the focus for additional showers and thunderstorms to
develop in the wake of daytime heating, especially along and
north of Interstate 44. There remains uncertainty on just how
much redevelopment we get through the afternoon, particularly
if the capping inversion wins out. For now, the most reasonable
scenario accounts for isolated redevelopment into the late
afternoon. Highs are progged to reach towards the lower to
middle 90s, with heat index values a bit lower than previous
days in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees. Lingering cloud
cover and/or convection may inhibit maximum daytime heating. At
this time, no additional heat headlines are being introduced.

By tonight, additional shortwave energy is progged to translate
into the region supporting increasing PoPs (40-60%) along and
north of Interstate 44. Some of the guidance depict the
development of another MCS to the west of the area, eventually
sweeping into portions of southeast KS and southwest MO
overnight. Nonetheless, confidence is increasing in more
widespread coverage for portions of our areas north of
Interstate 44. This would include an increasing potential for
localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding in areas that see
training thunderstorms through tonight. HREF LPMM depicts some
localized amounts approaching 1 to 3 inches. If training
materializes given the efficient rainfall producers, higher
amounts may be realized. WPC accounts for this potential with a
Slight (2 of 4) to Moderate (3 of 4) Excessive Rainfall Outlook
nudging into southeast KS and west central MO. This can be
better described as an area along and north of a line from
Pittsburg, KS to Warsaw, MO. It is worth noting that there still
remains uncertainty on how mesoscale trends unfold in the next
12+ hours, thus confidence is just not high enough to warrant
the introduction of a Flood Watch yet. Monitor for updates and
changes to the forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Monday-Wednesday: For early next week, ensemble guidance
highlight a series of shortwaves translating through the region
with a frontal boundary near the area. The highest PoPs are
currently focused on Monday and Tuesday, particularly with the
daytime heating. There remains some uncertainty on the extent of
coverage each day, with all day washouts currently not expected.
However, it is plausible that daily rain chances and cloud
cover influence temperatures. Highs are expected to be closer to
normal for mid-August through mid-week, reaching into the upper
80s to around 90. A bit cooler temperatures may be realized,
keeping highs in the middle 80s in some locations across the
north.

Thursday-Saturday: By late week into next weekend, ensembles
suggest the return of a building mid-level ridge. This would
support a warming trend and diminishing rain chances. Monitor
the forecast for updates through the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 555 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances through this morning
and afternoon. Confidence remains lower on the extent of
coverage, thus PROB30 groups are being used to depict rain
chances. Reduction in visibilities and ceilings within any
activity may support brief periods of MVFR to IFR flight
conditions. Better rain chances into this evening and tonight,
particularly at KJLN and KSGF. South-southeast winds through
the period, with occasional wind gusts at KJLN and KSGF
approaching 20 knots through the afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Perez