202
FXUS66 KSEW 092119
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
219 PM PDT Fri May 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry conditions continuing throughout the day.
The pattern will turn more cooler and showery heading into the
weekend. A more organized front will cross the area Sunday into
Monday for more widespread rain. Upper level ridging will start to
build into the area midweek for the return of warm and dry
conditions.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...Recent satellite imagery
shows high clouds moving in ahead of an approaching trough just
off the coast. Dry and warm conditions will continue throughout
the remainder of the day as an upper level ridge gradually shifts
to the east. High temperatures this afternoon will range in the
mid/upper 60s, with some spots even reaching 70 degrees. The
aforementioned trough will start to approach the coast by Saturday
morning bringing along some moisture with it. With limited QPF
with this trough, can expect little meaningful precip across the
region. The best chances for any rain would likely be areas along
the coast and perhaps the North Interior.

A more organized front looks to cross the region Saturday night
into Sunday with an offshore low. Light widespread precipitation
looks likely across most of western Washington on Sunday. AS the
parent low drifts further south throughout the day, cool and
showery conditions will remain with high temps in the
upper 50s to low 60s. Latest model guidance has not been very keen
on instability across the area on Sunday, with most of the
ensembles eliminating the prospect from the forecast, but will
continue to monitor for any potential changes. The low will
continue to drift southward through the OR coast and in turn will
keep Monday showery with high temps in the low 60s.


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...Upper level ridging will
build midweek for a drying pattern to return across the area. With
a few subtle shortwaves within the ridge, could see some weak
disturbances bring some sort of shower activity through the rest
of the long term, with some ensembles keeping our area dry. For
now, kept a chance of showers through Friday. Temperatures look to
be stagnant, with low to mid 60s across the interior and mid to
upper 50s for areas near the water.

Mazurkiewicz

&&

.AVIATION...An upper ridge will remain located across the
Intermountain West into Saturday, with troughing developing across
the NE Pacific, resulting in continued southwest flow aloft. VFR
cigs through tonight, with cigs slowly lowering along the coast into
Saturday morning. Cigs will lower, but likely remain VFR on Saturday
for the interior, with localized MVFR possible along the coast on
Saturday. A few showers will be possible on Saturday as well for the
Olympic Peninsula. NW winds into tonight will transition more S/SW
Saturday morning.

KSEA...VFR cigs with high clouds through tonight. Cigs will slowly
lower on Saturday, but expected to remain VFR. N/NW winds of 6 to 10
kts through this evening will become NE tonight. Winds will then
transition to more S/SW Saturday morning (generally between 15-18z).

JD

&&

.MARINE...Mainly light winds over the waters through tonight with
surface high pressure. A weak westerly push expected tonight for
central and eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca, but winds will be below
SCA threshold. A weak front will move through on Saturday, resulting
in increasing onshore flow. A surface low moving into southern
Oregon Monday into Tuesday will bring increasing northerly winds for
the Coastal Waters. Seas of 4 to 6 feet through the weekend will
build to over 10 feet for the outer Coastal Waters on Tuesday. JD

&&

.HYDROLOGY...The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the
start of the next rainy season; it will only be included as needed.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$