876
FXUS66 KSEW 281750
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
950 AM PST Fri Feb 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level ridge will maintain warm and dry
conditions over western Washington today and early Saturday. An
upper level low will move in Sunday, bringing a return to cooler
and cloudy conditions and well as chances for scattered showers
into early next week. Drier conditions look to temporarily return
mid to late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...No significant changes made
to the forecast this morning. The previous discussion can be found
below along with an updated aviation section:

Stratus should quickly lift and scatter later this morning,
giving way to mostly clear skies this afternoon. With the upper
level ridge axis having moved eastward over the intermountain west
and the cloud cover this morning, this should help to slightly
damper today`s high temperature compared to Thursday, through
still reaching the mid 50s to low 60s. Lows again in the upper 30s
to low 40s.

An upper level trough will begin to approach the area this
weekend. Cloud cover will begin to increase Saturday through most,
except for the coast, look to remain dry during the day Saturday.
Highs Saturday will still be in the upper 50s to low 60s through
the interior, though cooler (low 50s) along the coast. Mid to
upper 60s may be possible in the Cascade valleys.

The best chances for precipitation will be Sunday into Monday as
the system moves onshore, but there is little moisture to work
with and the low center moves southeastward towards California,
bringing with it the better forcing. QPF amounts will be on the
order of hundredths to a few tenths of an inch through Monday.
Snow levels 3500 to 4500 ft will mean only a dusting of snow at
the higher passes and ski resorts. Cloudier and cooler conditions
will accompany this system, with highs in the low 50s and lows in
the 40s.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...Light precipitation
chances linger into Monday. Tuesday, or at least early Tuesday,
may be dry as a transient upper level ridge crosses the region
before troughing returns Wednesday into Thursday. Deterministic
model solutions diverge at this point, and ensemble cluster
analysis shows a wide range of potential solutions, ranging from
another ridge beginning to build back just offshore to a deep
trough or closed low over central California. Most ensembles are
showing at least light precipitation throughout the long-term
period, so kept slight chances to chances of showers in the
forecast. High temperatures look to remain in the low 50s with
lows in the mid 30s to low 40s.

62

&&

.AVIATION...Upper level ridge over the area today will shift east
tonight. Westerly flow aloft becoming southwesterly this afternoon
with light low level flow into Saturday.

Stratus this morning along the coast, the Strait of Juan de Fuca,
Chehalis Valley and central Puget Sound southward. LIFR ceilings
with local visibility a mile or less lift and burn back to the coast
19z-21z with MVFR ceilings along the coast into Saturday morning. It
continues to look very similar Saturday morning with the stratus
possibly arriving a couple hours earlier than today.

KSEA...Stratus and fog very near to the terminal this morning is
expected burn back over the next hour or so. A brief period of LIFR
remains possible until the fog fully burns back. VFR conditions this
afternoon into Saturday morning. Very similar conditions Saturday
morning with LIFR stratus around 14z. Light northerly winds 6 knots
or less through the period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...No river flooding is expected in the next 7 days. The
Chehalis River at Porter and the Skokomish River remain in
action stage this morning and will continue to slowly recede.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM PST Sunday for
     West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM PST Sunday
     for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out
     10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
     Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
     Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM PST Monday
     for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To
     60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
     10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
     Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm.

&&

$$