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AGUS76 KRSA 282050
HMDRSA

Hydrometeorological Discussion
National Weather Service / California Nevada RFC / Sacramento CA
130 PM PST Fri Nov 28 2025

...RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NE NV...
...LARGE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL SYSTEM AND
PRECIPITATION ON WED/THURS NEXT WEEK...

.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (FRI PM - THU AM)...

No major changes to the afternoon forecast as dry conditions
continue to dominate the region through the weekend. Slight
increases (~0.10 inches) were made to northeastern Nevada where
multiple weak shortwaves are forecast to swing through the
downstream portion of the ridge, producing shower activity across
the region.

Models continue to disagree substantially on a system on Wed/Thurs
next week where the ECMWF, along with a large portion of its
ensembles, suggest a retrograding trough/cutoff over central and
southern California. Afternoon forecasts slightly (~0.10 inches)
increased accumulations over the southern California coast, trending
with the NBM. Current precipitation accumulations are generally
below 0.5 inches across southern California.

Freezing levels are forecast to start the period at ~10k feet across
the north and 12.5k feet across the south. Levels are forecast to
rise through the weekend, reaching 12k feet across the north on
Monday before potentially lowering to <10k feet across the forecast
area under the retrograding trough and cutoff low by mid next week.

QPF graphics are available at www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/qpf.php



CH

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