668
AGUS76 KRSA 082015
HMDRSA

Hydrometeorological Discussion
National Weather Service / California Nevada RFC / Sacramento CA
1215 PM PST Fri Nov 8 2024

...MAINLY DRY TO WRAP UP THE WEEK...
...CHANCES INCREASE FOR PRECIP INTO NEXT WEEK...

.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (SHORT TERM: FRI PM - MON AM)...

Only small changes to the forecast for this afternoon as high
pressure extending from the vicinity of 30N/140W to the northeast
across northern CA and interior Pacific Northwest continues dry
conditions through today. Into tomorrow...an elongating s/wv trof
will move over the coastal waters and split with precip potential
remaining confined to the immediate coast from about Point Arena
northward. Then...a more robust s/wv trof will approach the region
late Sunday into early Monday with timing slightly slower than the
previous forecast...putting precip in the last 6-hour period of the
short term (ending 12Z Monday) across the northern CA coast inland
toward the crest of the southern OR and northern CA Cascades.


.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (LONG TERM: MON AM - THU AM)...

Forecast still on track with precipitation mainly on Monday and
Wednesday into Thursday especially over Srn OR and Nrn CA as a
couple systems move through the area. No big changes to the forecast
for Monday into Tuesday with only slight increases (around a tenth
of an inch or less) in amounts over Nrn CA. Increased amounts some
over Srn OR and Nrn CA for Wednesday especially along the NW CA
coast (up to around a half an inch for Smith Basin and around a
quarter for the Shasta Basin and around a tenth over the Nrn
Sierra). Precip amounts 2-4 inches for the Smith Basin and 0.5-1.25
inch for Shasta Basin and Nrn Sierra through Monday night. Precip
amounts for Tuesday into Tuesday night 0.5-1 inch for the Smith
Basin and Srn Or Cascades and around a quarter of an inch or less
for the Eel Basin and a few hundredths over the Shasta Basin and NE
NV. 1.5-2.5 inches for the Smith Basin and around a half an inch for
the Russian. and 0.5-1 inch for Shasta Basin and 0.1-0.5 for Nrn
Sierra and a third of an inch or less for the Sac Valley.

Freezing levels near the ORCA border around 5000-6000 ft Monday
morning and around 5000 ft in the afternoon. Freezing levels above
drop to around 7000-800ft Monday morning and 6000-7000ft over the
Nrn Sierra and 7000-8000ft over the Central Sierra Monday afternoon
and 5500-6500ft for the North and 6500-7500ft for Central Sierra
Monday evening. Freezing levels around 4500-5000ft near ORCA border
and 5000-7000ft over Nrn sierra and7000-9000ft over Central Sierra
and 5000-7000ft over Nrn and Central NV on Tuesday morning then
rising to around 7000ft and higher near the ORCA border and above
8000ft and higher over the Sierra and NV Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Freezing levels drop during the day Wednesday to around
5500-6500 ft near ORCA border and around 8000-10000ft over Nrn
Sierra by Thursday morning.


QPF graphics are available at www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/qpf.php



Kozlowski/Osborne

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