186
AGUS76 KRSA 051629
HMDRSA

Hydrometeorological Discussion
National Weather Service / California Nevada RFC / Sacramento CA
830 AM PDT Sat Oct 5 2024

...WARM AND MAINLY DRY INTO THURSDAY...

.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (SAT AM - FRI AM)...

Ridge of high pressure dominant over the region through the weekend.
Max temperatures around 5 to 20 degrees above normal through the
weekend. Overnight temperatures around 5 to 25 degrees above normal
through Monday morning. Near record to record temperatures possible
through Tuesday morning.  The ridge shifts east into four corners
region Sunday into Monday as a weak shortwave trough is along CA
coast.  Temperatures generally cool a little Monday afternoon to
around 5 to 16 degrees above normal. A slight chance of a few
showers and possible isolated thunderstorms over Sierra Crest and
into NE Nevada with some instability Sunday into Tuesday. The weak
upper level shortwave trough develops into a weak low off the Srn CA
coast on Tuesday and down along Baja coast on Wednesday as an upper
level trough approaches the west coast. This will cool max
temperatures to near normal to 15 degrees above normal (coolest
along the coast) mid-week. Overnight temperatures generally near
normal to 15 degrees above normal mid-week.   Models and ensemble
members vary with timing, strength and track of the the system( with
the GFS still quicker than the EC) so low confidence in the details.
Some light precip could start as early as Thursday night along NW CA
coast. Although almost a quarter (22%) of ensemble members (10%
Canadian and GFs and 34 % EC) keep ridge stronger over the region
and weak trough offshore of the west coast by Friday afternoon.


Please Note: This product may NOT be routinely updated Friday
through Sunday between Jun 1 and Oct 1. Please refer to
www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/dailyBriefing.php for a graphical summary of
weather and hydrologic conditions.

QPF graphics are available at www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/qpf.php



Osborne

$$