811
FNUS71 KRNK 071052
FWSRNK

Spot Forecast for Fairy Stone State Park Unit 2...Virginia DCR
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
652 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EDT on May 07.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Fair weather expected today with High pressure in control.
Near calm wind this morning is expected to become southwesterly this
afternoon with speeds under 10 mph. Upper level clouds will be
on the increase, gradually dimming the sun with time during the
afternoon, becoming mostly cloudy after 1500. Next chance of
rain is Thursday afternoon.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny this morning, then increasing clouds this afternoon.
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 78.
Min humidity........36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......6900 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southwest 3 to 5 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (12900 knot-ft) this morning
                    increasing to good (33000 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................19 to 46.

TIME (EDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........30  40  46  56  65  70  80
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............70  72  74  76  77  77  77
RH..............44  41  38  37  36  36  36
20 FT wind dir..W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.4   6   6   7   6   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...4.3 5.4 5.9 6.6 6.9 6.7 5.7
Mixng wind dir..NW  NW  W   W   SW  SW  SW
Mixng wind spd..3   5   5   6   5   3   3
LVORI...........2   2   1   1   1   1   2
ADI.............19  28  37  46  40  30  22
VRate mph-ft/1K.15  22  31  38  33  25  20

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-90 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 56.
Max humidity........80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southwest less than 10 mph becoming calm after
                    10 PM.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (17000 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (900 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................1 to 24.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........80     90     90     80     70     72
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      10     10     10     10
Temp............75     70     65     63     61     59
RH..............39     50     64     69     72     78
20 ft wind......SW 3   S 2    SW 2   W 1    W 1    SW 1
20 ft wind gust.5      4             2      2      2
Mix hgt (ft)....3500   500    500    500    500    500
Mixing wind.....SW 6   SW 10  SW 8   SW 5   W 2    W 2
LVORI...........2      2      3      3      3      4
ADI.............24     5      3      2      1      1
VRate mph-ft/1K.20     6      4      2      1      1

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-50 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent increasing to 40 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 78.
Min humidity........45 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5200 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Calm early in the morning, then south or southeast 2 to 6 mph
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (500 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (19900 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................1 to 29.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM         10 AM        2 PM
Sky (%).........60           24           43
Weather cov.....                          S CHC
Weather type....NONE         NONE         RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                          S CHC
CWR.............10           10           20
Temp............58           69           76
RH..............80           61           47
20 FT wind......W 1G2        N 0G4        SE 2G6
Mix hgt (ft)....500          2400         5200
Mixing wind.....NW 2         E 3          SE 2
LVORI...........6            2            2
ADI.............1            11           15
VRate mph-ft/1K.1            9            12

$$
Forecaster...Manuel
Requested by...Reed Stanley
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2513317.0/RNK
.DELDT 05/07/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL reed.stanley@dcr.virginia.gov