021
FNUS71 KRNK 261524
FWSRNK

Spot Forecast for Difficult Creek RX (3,6)...DCR
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1024 AM EST Wed Feb 26 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EST on February 26.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Surface winds generally out of the north/northwest this morning are
expected to transition to out of the southwest over the next couple
of hours. This will similarly transition transport winds to out of the
southwest at around the same time. Mixing heights should also improve
throughout the afternoon to around 5000ft during peak mixing hours.
Some upper level clouds are currently moving over the spot location,
but these clouds will continue east, and will clear skies over the
next couple of hours. Dispersions do look to increase to the low 80s
as winds pick up this afternoon. Overall, there are currently no
fire weather concerns; however, burn operators should take note
of the expected wind shift today.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 6 mph late
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5300 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northwest 1 to 2 mph becoming 1 to 3 mph late
                    in the morning, then shifting to the southwest
                    6 to 14 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (600 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (63000 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................1 early in the morning increasing to 83 in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (EST)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........29  31  33  30  26  30  33  37  21  8
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............38  44  52  58  62  66  66  68  69  66
RH..............83  69  57  46  41  37  34  32  30  34
20 FT wind dir..W   NW  NW  NW  W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   2   2   3   5   5   6   5
20 FT wind gust.6   5   6   6   6   7   7   8   8   8
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.5 1.2 2.2 4.0 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.2 1.4
Mixng wind dir..W   NW  N   NW  W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Mixng wind spd..2   1   1   3   6   9   12  14  14  12
LVORI...........5   3   3   2   2   1   1   1   1   2
ADI.............2   1   2   9   30  52  70  83  83  21
VRate mph-ft/1K.1   1   1   7   25  45  60  72  72  16

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 48.
Max humidity........72 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 6 mph
                    overnight.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........South 5 to 8 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1600 knot-ft).
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................2 to 7.

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........9      25     44     56     78     83
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............63     57     54     54     52     51
RH..............40     49     60     59     62     66
20 ft wind......S 4    S 4    S 4    S 4    S 6    SW 6
20 ft wind gust.7      8      10     12     13     13
Mix hgt (ft)....500    400    400    400    400    500
Mixing wind......S 8    S 5    S 6    S 7    S 7    S 8
LVORI...........2      2      3      3      3      3
ADI.............3      2      4      4      5      7
VRate mph-ft/1K.4      2      2      3      3      4

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain early in the afternoon. Chance of rain
                    late in the afternoon.
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent increasing to 40 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........45 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 8 mph shifting to the west
                    late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4100 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southwest 8 to 15 mph increasing to 18 to 25
                    mph late in the morning, then shifting to the
                    northwest 17 to 24 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3900 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (87000 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................6 early in the morning increasing to 92 in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (EST)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........88        88        92        78
Weather cov.....                    S CHC     CHANCE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      RAIN      RAIN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0         10        20        30
Temp............50        56        65        65
RH..............72        57        45        47
20 FT wind......SW 6G13   SW 7G14   SW 8G14   W 7G14
Mix hgt (ft)....500       900       3500      2100
Mixing wind......S 8       SW 13     SW 22     W 24
LVORI...........3         2         1         1
ADI.............6         12        76        62
VRate mph-ft/1K.4         11        76        50

$$
Forecaster...Bunker
Requested by...Rebecca Wilson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2503905.0/RNK
.DELDT 02/26/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL rebecca.wilson@dcr.virginia.gov