


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
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288 FXUS61 KRNK 020155 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 955 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will arrive on Wednesday, which will bring increasing clouds and chances of rain into Wednesday night. Above normal temperatures should continue for the rest of the week with a few showers west of the mountains due to a frontal boundary that will stall across the Ohio River Valley. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 955 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: 1) Confidence is high for winds increasing from the southeast across portions of West Virginia and far southwest Virginia. 2) Clouds will increase on Wednesday, and chances of rain should also steadily rise as a warm front approaches. Temperatures tonight were tweaked downward in this update as they are dropping due to mainly clear skies. As high pressure crosses the New England states tonight, the flow should swing to the east and southeast. Meanwhile, a low pressure system will cross the central Plains, which will cause a pressure gradient across the Appalachian Mountains. A southeast wind could gust up to 40 mph across parts of southeast West Virginia and far southwest Virginia by Wednesday. Clouds will increase as this moist and cool air from the Atlantic Ocean wedges against the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge. The warm front from the aforementioned low pressure system will approach the Mid Atlantic by Wednesday evening. As a result of this pattern, temperatures were lowered even further with highs on Wednesday not climbing out of the 50s for a majority of locations. Some mountain locations may not escape the 40s on Wednesday given how temperatures are dropping tonight and will not have much opportunity to increase afterward. Chances of rain will emerge along the southern Blue Ridge on Wednesday morning and spread northward by Wednesday evening. Rainfall amounts should stay light and may just be sprinkles or drizzle until the warm front approaches to bring additional lift. Patchy fog may occur along the crest of the southern Blue Ridge as the upslope moisture increases on Wednesday, especially near Interstate 77 and Fancy Gap. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 1015 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Message: 1) High confidence in warming temperatures and increasing clouds and chances for rain in the short term forecast. Wednesday night through the end of the work week we will still be mostly under the influence of Bermuda high pressure aloft. A frontal fracture/extended baroclinic zone will be situated roughly from TX to PA to ME and gradually shift into northern sections of the forecast area late in the period. Southerly winds will help keep moisture elevated Wednesday night through Friday, and showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day, mainly in the afternoons when heating is greatest, and mainly over the mountains. For Thursday and Friday, high temperatures will be a good 15-20 degrees warmer than on Wednesday. Have gone a few degrees below guidance however due to showers and clouds. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1010 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: 1) Cold front finally moves through over the weekend. 2) Much cooler temperatures early next week. Saturday will be another warm day under cloud cover and mountain showers with a possible backdoor front situation as part of the boundary shifts south. Finally by Sunday, a strong short wave will eject out of the southern Plains and will be absorbed by the larger mean trough to our west. This should be enough forcing to kick a cold front through the area, bringing widespread moderate rain along with thunderstorms. The cold front will usher in much cooler temperatures by next Monday and Tuesday, with highs in the 40s and 50s for the mountains, and in the 60s for the piedmont, and lows areawide in the 30s. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 955 PM EDT Tuesday... Confidence is high for VFR conditions early tonight. Scattered cirrus will spread overhead and increase in coverage overnight. Although the flow begins as light and variable tonight, it should swing towards the east and southeast before daybreak on Wednesday. The southeast flow should accelerate west of the Blue Ridge on Wednesday with gusts up to 25-30 knots at BLF and 15-20 knots at BCB and LWB. In addition, the increasing moisture will cause a layer of IFR to MVFR stratus to develop. Model soundings show a high probability of ceilings falling lower by sunset on Wednesday with light rain arriving due to an approaching warm front. .EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Poor flying conditions are becoming increasingly likely on Wednesday night as a warm front crosses the Mid Atlantic. Models are depicting a growing threat for low level wind shear from the south that could exceed 40 knots, especially west of the Blue Ridge. Rain coverage will increase, while ceilings and visibilities could drop to IFR or perhaps lower. A cold front may stall across the Ohio River Valley during the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Chances of rain and MVFR conditions remain possible for Thursday though Sunday as the flow turns more towards the southwest. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PW NEAR TERM...PW SHORT TERM...SH LONG TERM...SH AVIATION...PW