


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
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103 FXUS61 KRNK 030020 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 820 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front should bring clouds and light rain tonight. Warmer air will follow into the weekend along with a chance of showers and thunderstorms due to a frontal boundary stalling over the Ohio River Valley. A cold front could arrive by late Sunday, and colder air may return for early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 820 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: 1) Confidence is high for cloudy and damp conditions tonight with patchy fog along the Blue Ridge. 2) Conditions should turn warmer with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the mountains. A cool wedge of marine air from easterly flow remains wedged against the Blue Ridge, which is keeping conditions as cloudy and damp. The wedge will not budge until Thursday once a warm front lifts north of the Mid Atlantic. Meanwhile, low clouds will bring light rain, drizzle, and patchy fog overnight. The fog may be dense along the southern Blue Ridge where the clouds are low enough to intersect the terrain. A special weather statement is in effect to highlight the fog risk from Boone to Floyd, especially for Interstate 77 near Fancy Gap. Temperatures will stay nearly steady tonight but should begin to rise towards daybreak on Thursday morning as dewpoints increase and the flow turns more towards the south. Clouds will linger through most of Thursday, but they should begin to scatter a little to allow some peeks of sunshine by the afternoon to raise temperatures into the 70s for most locations. The increase in heat and moisture will offer enough instability for a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms across southeast West Virginia as a frontal boundary approaches from the northwest. A couple of these storms might bring a threat of damaging winds. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 PM EDT Wednesday... 1) Very unusually warm this weekend 2) Small chance of showers later this week for northern counties With the warm front through and a surface high off the Carolina Coast, considerably warm and moist air will make itself at home. High temperatures by the weekend are expected to be at most 25 degrees above seasonal averages! Guidance shows high temperatures in the upper 70s / lower 80s with dew points in the upper 50s / lower 60s by Friday. While more storm systems are forecast for central and southern CONUS, most of these storms will travel around us thanks to the persistent surface high off the Carolinas. While there are some conditions for severe weather, notably a few hundred CAPE and 30-50 kt bulk shear, shortwaves that would provide a source of storm initiation will veer around the region. If the surface high meanders more easterly or southerly it is possible that the northern counties could be grazed by these systems and bring some precipitation with them during this weekend. Precipitation amounts will likely be between 0.01-0.10 inches if this comes into fruition. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are likely to persist for the entirety of this portion of the forecast period. Finally, winds are expected to pick up a little by the weekend thanks to a modest pressure gradient over the area. Wind gusts, especially at highest elevations, may reach 20-25 mph. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 210 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: 1) A chance of storms Sunday 2) Colder air returns next week A cold front will move through as early as Sunday morning and force another chance of region wide thunderstorms. With an already moist and warm environment, precipitation is likely but the severity is in question. Some severe weather parameters are in sync such as a few hundred CAPE and a right entrance upper level jet over the area to assist with rising air. The SPC has not included the region in its Day 5 outlook due to lack of confidence in buoyancy but did mention the Mid-Atlantic in its discussion. Model guidance, however, suggests bulk wind shear of 80-100 kts which may wreck any storms that develop. This system will be monitored closely. The main takeaway for this part of the forecast is that the second cold front has a large cold air mass that follows it and temperatures and dew points region wide will tank. Winds that accompany the front will bring sustained winds of 10-15 mph with gusts of 20-30 mph along and west of the Blue Ridge. Because of the wind, wind chill values for early mornings next- week could be in the 20s and teens, especially for areas along and east of the Blue Ridge. The air mass, however, will be notably drier and stable which will pull the plug on any future severe or generic thunderstorm systems for the rest of the forecast period. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 820 PM EDT Wednesday... Poor flying conditions are expected tonight due to cool and moist air being wedged against the Blue Ridge. Ceilings will fall to IFR and LIFR overnight, and some of the low stratus could intersect the terrain along the southern Blue Ridge from Boone to Floyd. In addition, light rain and drizzle should occur overnight, and low-level wind shear will also take place. The greatest threat of wind shear occurs at ROA and points west to BCB, BLF, and LWB. LYH also will be clipped by the wind shear, which has been added tonight for a few hours. The flow should turn towards the south-southwest by Thursday as a warm front lifts northward and the cool and moist wedge slowly erodes. Gradual recovery in ceilings is anticipated with all terminals returning to VFR during Thursday afternoon. The wind should gust up to 20 knots by midday with up to 25 knots possible at LYH. Meanwhile, a frontal boundary across the Ohio River Valley could spark afternoon convection that may try to reach southeast West Virginia by Thursday evening. Confidence is too low at this time to include thunder at BLF and LWB. .EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... A frontal boundary should stall across the Ohio River Valley during Thursday night into Friday. This frontal boundary will keep chances of showers and thunderstorms present into the upcoming weekend. Otherwise, conditions should stay mostly VFR outside of any afternoon convection or any increase in moisture at night that could produce a layer of low clouds. A cold front may arrive by late Sunday into Sunday night to provide sub-VFR conditions and a more widespread chance of showers and thunderstorms. MVFR ceilings might linger into Monday across the mountains, while a gusty northwest wind returns. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PW NEAR TERM...PW/WP SHORT TERM...CG LONG TERM...CG AVIATION...PW/WP