353
FXUS61 KRNK 021823
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
223 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will slowly move north tonight, producing
considerable cloud cover and the chance of some light rain or
drizzle. Temperatures will remain relatively cool. By Thursday,
the warm front will move north of our region, introducing much
warmer temperatures. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible
from the Ohio Valley into the northern Mid- Atlantic where the
front will stall and remain nearly stationary from Thursday
through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 150 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Low clouds/drizzle/light rain along and either side Blue Ridge
through tonight

2) Wedge breaks Thursday, milder with a few storms in the afternoon.

Mesoanalysis early this afternoon shows a decent wedge in place over
most of our area keeping temperatures in the 40s and 50s. Outside
the wedge toward the Clinch and Holston River valleys, temperatures
have warmed close to 70.

Weather cams and obs indicate fog to be dense at times along the
higher elevations of the Blue Ridge, with drizzle/light rain at
times.

This pattern will likely persist into tonight. Numerical models show
wedge breaking overnight as warm front lifts north, but time of year
leads to more thinking the lower clouds/drizzle/rain may stick
around into early Thursday despite the winds turning south/southeast
with some gusts to 20+mph.

Temperatures overnight will only drop a few degrees from current
readings, except outside the wedge. Most will be in the upper 40s to
lower 50s overnight.

Clouds are expected to linger through most of the day Thursday but
some sunshine will peek in at times in the afternoon to allow
temperatures to rise into the 70s for most.

Should have enough instability to allow for some thunder tomorrow
but main focus of organized storms will be closer to the front and
upper support from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-MS Valley. A few
clusters of storms could reach southeast WV later in the afternoon
with damaging winds possible.

Forecast confidence is high  on keeping clouds around and temps but
lower on temps and storm chances Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM EDT Wednesday...

1) Very unusually warm this weekend

2) Small chance of showers later this week for northern
counties

With the warm front through and a surface high off the Carolina
Coast, considerably warm and moist air will make itself at
home. High temperatures by the weekend are expected to be at
most 25 degrees above seasonal averages! Guidance shows high
temperatures in the upper 70s / lower 80s with dew points in the
upper 50s / lower 60s by Friday.

While more storm systems are forecast for central and southern
CONUS, most of these storms will travel around us thanks to the
persistent surface high off the Carolinas. While there are some
conditions for severe weather, notably a few hundred CAPE and 30-50
kt bulk shear, shortwaves that would provide a source of storm
initiation will veer around the region.  If the surface high
meanders more easterly or southerly it is possible that the northern
counties could be grazed by these systems and bring some
precipitation with them during this weekend. Precipitation amounts
will likely be between 0.01-0.10 inches if this comes into fruition.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies are likely to persist for the entirety
of this portion of the forecast period. Finally, winds are expected
to pick up a little by the weekend thanks to a modest pressure
gradient over the area. Wind gusts, especially at highest
elevations, may reach 20-25 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 210 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) A chance of storms Sunday

2) Colder Air Returns Next Week

A cold front will move through as early as Sunday morning and
force another chance of region wide thunderstorms. With an
already moist and warm environment, precipitation is likely but
the severity is in question. Some severe weather parameters are
in sync such as a few hundred CAPE and a right entrance upper
level jet over the area to assist with rising air. The SPC has
not included the region in its Day 5 outlook due to lack of
confidence in buoyancy but did mention the Mid-Atlantic in its
discussion. Model guidance, however, suggests bulk wind shear of
80-100 kts which may wreck any storms that develop. This system
will be monitored closely.

The main takeaway for this part of the forecast is that the second
cold front has a large cold air mass that follows it and
temperatures and dew points region wide will tank. Winds that
accompany the front will bring sustained winds of 10-15 mph with
gusts of 20-30 mph along and west of the Blue Ridge. Because of the
wind, wind chill values for early mornings next-week could be in the
20s and teens, especially for areas along and east of the Blue
Ridge. The air mass, however, will be notably drier and stable which
will pull the plug on any future severe or generic thunderstorm
systems for the rest of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Wednesday...

Sub-VFR cigs/vsbys will be prevalent along/east of the Alleghany
front through Thu morning with patchy drizzle/light rain. Vsbys
at times may drop to 2 to statute miles, especially at ROA/BCB,
with cigs below 1kft.

LWB will also sink to sub-MVFR by tonight but should improve to
VFR by late Thu morning as southwest winds mix out the lower
clouds.

BLF could be on the edge of sub-VFR cigs and will lean toward
this but at times, BLF could scatter out especially this
afternoon on the edge of the stable layer.

Showers/storms through the period will mainly stay further
northwest across the Ohio Valley, though a few may slide toward
LWB Thu morning.

Southeast winds will be gusty at BLF this afternoon, then once
wedge starts eroding Thursday most sites will start to see gusts
in the 18-22kts range, though may take til after 18z Thursday
to have improvements at BCB/ROA/LYH/DAN above 1kft, but vsbys
should go back above 6 miles between 12-15z.

Low level wind shear will also arrive from the west thanks to
strong low level jet with stable surface layer. This will
mainly occur from BCB west to BLF/LWB from 02z-12z.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Look for improving conditions Thursday afternoon as warmer air
and gusty southwest winds bring VFR back. A frontal boundary at
times will keep shower/storm chances around into the weekend
until the main front arrives Sunday. Overall should be VFR, but
cannot rule out some sub-VFR cigs at night and with any
shower/storms.

Behind the system early next week should be VFR except some
lingering MVFR cigs in the mountains.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...PM/WP