973
FXUS61 KRNK 081711
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1211 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will pass over the area later today
and tonight generating some light snow and flurries for the
mountains. Mostly dry conditions are expected east of the Blue
Ridge. The next storm system to produce widespread snow will
come at the end of the week, Friday afternoon into Saturday.
Below normal temperatures are expected through the upcoming
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 500 AM EST Wednesday...

PoPs were increased across higher terrain locations this morning
as snow showers/flurries are currently being observed across
webcams in NW North Carolina and SW Virginia. Temperatures were
also adjusted for the next several hours to account for morning
low temperatures across the area. Overall, expect snow showers
and flurries across areas west of the Blue Ridge, but
accumulations will be minimal at around a half an inch or less.
Mostly sunny conditions are expected across the Piedmont today.
Bitterly cold temperatures will continue today with highs in the
low to mid 20s west of the Blue Ridge, and low to mid 30s in the
Piedmont.


Previous Discussion:

Key Messages:

1) Below normal temperatures and bitterly cold wind chills
will continue.

2) Periods of light snow and flurries expected across
the mountains.

Clouds are expected to persist along and west of the Appalachian
divide with the opportunity for additional snow accumulation.
3-4 inches of additional snow are possible for western
Greenbrier County WV, with an inch or two possible along the
western slopes through Bluefield, far western Virginia and the
NC high country...the snow persisting through tonight. Downslope
flow will suppress much of the activity east of the mountains
with mostly clear skies east of the mountains. A short wave
trough is expected to swing through the northern Mid-Atlantic,
so there may be some cloud enhancement east of the mountains
late in the afternoon and tonight. If clouds do spill over the
mountains, can`t rule out some flurries into the Blue Ridge
foothills. The airmass aloft is very cold with 85H temps of
M12-M15 deg C. This is cold enough to cause any cloud element
to precipitate ice crystals. In other words if you see low level
clouds today or tonight, expect some flurries at the very
least. Winds will remain gusty today and tonight. Combined with
the cold, expect wind chills in the single digits. Sub-single
digits are possible across the mountains and higher
terrain...supporting the need for Cold Weather Advisories there,
wind chills of zero to 12 below zero.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1: Low pressure will bring snow to the lower Mid-Atlantic Friday
afternoon through early Saturday.

2: Latest data suggests mainly 2 to 4 inch accumulations, with
locally higher amounts.

2: Temperatures will remain below normal through the period.

Residual snow showers across southeast West Virginia will come to an
end Thursday morning as cold high pressure drifts up the Ohio River
Valley to settle across the central Appalachians. The high will
support mostly clear skies and diminishing winds through the day,
with daytime highs holding below freezing for much of the region,
though the Southside will reach into the mid 30s for a couple hours.
Temperatures will drop quickly around sunset given the initial lack
of clouds, with cloud cover then increasing overnight
associated with a low pressure system passing across the
Southeast states.

Moisture will arrive during Friday early afternoon from the
southwest, with cold air already in place supporting snow as the
main precipitation type for this event. A couple of factors will
help to limit the snowfall totals with this system, including
significant dry air in place that the arriving moisture must
overcome, as well as the fast pace at which this system will pass
across the Southeast. As such, latest data suggests this system will
produce snowfall totals ranging mainly from 2 to 4 inches, with
locally higher amounts. Though light snow will begin to fall Friday
afternoon, most of snow will occur Friday evening through sunrise
Saturday morning. The higher-end totals are most likely along the
Blue Ridge and the Piedmont, areas where deeper moisture will enter,
while lower-end totals will occur across the New River Valley into
the Alleghany Highlands.

With the system exiting Saturday morning, winds will shift
northwesterly, and will support another round of upslope snow
showers across the higher terrain from southeast West Virginia
through the Highlands of North Carolina. These snow showers will
linger through late Saturday night before diminishing as high
pressure returns to the region. The northwesterly windflow will
support a wide gradient in afternoon temperatures for Saturday, with
highs from southeast West Virginia through the Virginia Southside
ranging from the mid 20s to the low 40s. Saturday night lows will
fall into the teens.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1: Mountain upslope snow showers likely Monday into early Tuesday.

2: Temperatures that are several degrees below normal will persist
through the period.

Cold high pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern
Sunday through Sunday night, with attention then turning to the
potential of cold front arriving Monday from the west that will
bring another round of upslope snow showers for the mountains. Early
indications are that these snow showers will linger through mid-week
before diminishing with the arrival of another round of high
pressure from the central Plains. Regardless, temperatures will
remain several degrees below normal through the early part of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1200 PM EST Wednesday...

MVFR CIGs and VSBYs look to continue across BLF and LWB, with
intermittent periods of MVFR CIGs at BCB through the TAF period
as a shortwave trough digs south across the region tonight. This
will also bring snow showers/flurries to these sites and ROA
starting tonight. Both LYH and DAN look to remain VFR through
the TAF period, with gusty northwest winds again developing
during the mid morning and early afternoon hours at around 20-25
knots. These gusty northwest winds look to develop at all
terminals east of the Blue Ridge Mountains by 15z, with higher
terrain locations developing gusty winds earlier in the morning
at around 12z.


AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR is expected Thursday for areas east of the mountains. Low
level clouds with MVFR CIGS will persist across the mountains
and will impact BLF and LWB. Light snow will persist for the WV
highlands. After Thursday, expect increasing clouds and chance
for snow areawide late Friday afternoon and into Saturday.

Winds diminish Thursday and should go calm for a period of time
prior to the arrival of the storm system Friday. Poor flight
conditions are expected Friday evening through at least 18Z/1PM
Saturday with high likelihood for IFR restrictions at all
terminals. Conditions are forecast to improve by Saturday
evening with a return to mainly VFR Sunday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon EST
     Thursday for VAZ015.
NC...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon EST
     Thursday for NCZ001-018.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for WVZ508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...EB/PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...EB/PM