103
FXUS61 KRNK 030020
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
820 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front should bring clouds and light rain tonight. Warmer
air will follow into the weekend along with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms due to a frontal boundary stalling
over the Ohio River Valley. A cold front could arrive by late
Sunday, and colder air may return for early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 820 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for cloudy and damp conditions tonight
with patchy fog along the Blue Ridge.

2) Conditions should turn warmer with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the mountains.

A cool wedge of marine air from easterly flow remains wedged
against the Blue Ridge, which is keeping conditions as cloudy
and damp. The wedge will not budge until Thursday once a warm
front lifts north of the Mid Atlantic. Meanwhile, low clouds
will bring light rain, drizzle, and patchy fog overnight. The
fog may be dense along the southern Blue Ridge where the clouds
are low enough to intersect the terrain. A special weather
statement is in effect to highlight the fog risk from Boone to
Floyd, especially for Interstate 77 near Fancy Gap.

Temperatures will stay nearly steady tonight but should begin to
rise towards daybreak on Thursday morning as dewpoints increase
and the flow turns more towards the south. Clouds will linger
through most of Thursday, but they should begin to scatter a
little to allow some peeks of sunshine by the afternoon to raise
temperatures into the 70s for most locations. The increase in
heat and moisture will offer enough instability for a 30 percent
chance of showers and thunderstorms across southeast West
Virginia as a frontal boundary approaches from the northwest. A
couple of these storms might bring a threat of damaging winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM EDT Wednesday...

1) Very unusually warm this weekend

2) Small chance of showers later this week for northern
counties

With the warm front through and a surface high off the Carolina
Coast, considerably warm and moist air will make itself at
home. High temperatures by the weekend are expected to be at
most 25 degrees above seasonal averages! Guidance shows high
temperatures in the upper 70s / lower 80s with dew points in the
upper 50s / lower 60s by Friday.

While more storm systems are forecast for central and southern
CONUS, most of these storms will travel around us thanks to
the persistent surface high off the Carolinas. While there are
some conditions for severe weather, notably a few hundred CAPE
and 30-50 kt bulk shear, shortwaves that would provide a source
of storm initiation will veer around the region. If the surface
high meanders more easterly or southerly it is possible that the
northern counties could be grazed by these systems and bring
some precipitation with them during this weekend. Precipitation
amounts will likely be between 0.01-0.10 inches if this comes
into fruition. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are likely to
persist for the entirety of this portion of the forecast period.
Finally, winds are expected to pick up a little by the weekend
thanks to a modest pressure gradient over the area. Wind gusts,
especially at highest elevations, may reach 20-25 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 210 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) A chance of storms Sunday

2) Colder air returns next week

A cold front will move through as early as Sunday morning and
force another chance of region wide thunderstorms. With an
already moist and warm environment, precipitation is likely but
the severity is in question. Some severe weather parameters are
in sync such as a few hundred CAPE and a right entrance upper
level jet over the area to assist with rising air. The SPC has
not included the region in its Day 5 outlook due to lack of
confidence in buoyancy but did mention the Mid-Atlantic in its
discussion. Model guidance, however, suggests bulk wind shear of
80-100 kts which may wreck any storms that develop. This system
will be monitored closely.

The main takeaway for this part of the forecast is that the
second cold front has a large cold air mass that follows it
and temperatures and dew points region wide will tank. Winds
that accompany the front will bring sustained winds of 10-15 mph
with gusts of 20-30 mph along and west of the Blue Ridge.
Because of the wind, wind chill values for early mornings next-
week could be in the 20s and teens, especially for areas along
and east of the Blue Ridge. The air mass, however, will be
notably drier and stable which will pull the plug on any future
severe or generic thunderstorm systems for the rest of the
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 820 PM EDT Wednesday...

Poor flying conditions are expected tonight due to cool and
moist air being wedged against the Blue Ridge. Ceilings will
fall to IFR and LIFR overnight, and some of the low stratus
could intersect the terrain along the southern Blue Ridge from
Boone to Floyd. In addition, light rain and drizzle should occur
overnight, and low-level wind shear will also take place. The
greatest threat of wind shear occurs at ROA and points west to
BCB, BLF, and LWB. LYH also will be clipped by the wind shear,
which has been added tonight for a few hours.

The flow should turn towards the south-southwest by Thursday as
a warm front lifts northward and the cool and moist wedge slowly
erodes. Gradual recovery in ceilings is anticipated with all
terminals returning to VFR during Thursday afternoon. The wind
should gust up to 20 knots by midday with up to 25 knots
possible at LYH. Meanwhile, a frontal boundary across the Ohio
River Valley could spark afternoon convection that may try to
reach southeast West Virginia by Thursday evening. Confidence
is too low at this time to include thunder at BLF and LWB.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

A frontal boundary should stall across the Ohio River Valley
during Thursday night into Friday. This frontal boundary will
keep chances of showers and thunderstorms present into the
upcoming weekend. Otherwise, conditions should stay mostly VFR
outside of any afternoon convection or any increase in moisture
at night that could produce a layer of low clouds. A cold front
may arrive by late Sunday into Sunday night to provide sub-VFR
conditions and a more widespread chance of showers and
thunderstorms. MVFR ceilings might linger into Monday across the
mountains, while a gusty northwest wind returns.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW/WP
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...PW/WP