


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
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353 FXUS61 KRNK 021823 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 223 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will slowly move north tonight, producing considerable cloud cover and the chance of some light rain or drizzle. Temperatures will remain relatively cool. By Thursday, the warm front will move north of our region, introducing much warmer temperatures. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible from the Ohio Valley into the northern Mid- Atlantic where the front will stall and remain nearly stationary from Thursday through Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 150 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: 1) Low clouds/drizzle/light rain along and either side Blue Ridge through tonight 2) Wedge breaks Thursday, milder with a few storms in the afternoon. Mesoanalysis early this afternoon shows a decent wedge in place over most of our area keeping temperatures in the 40s and 50s. Outside the wedge toward the Clinch and Holston River valleys, temperatures have warmed close to 70. Weather cams and obs indicate fog to be dense at times along the higher elevations of the Blue Ridge, with drizzle/light rain at times. This pattern will likely persist into tonight. Numerical models show wedge breaking overnight as warm front lifts north, but time of year leads to more thinking the lower clouds/drizzle/rain may stick around into early Thursday despite the winds turning south/southeast with some gusts to 20+mph. Temperatures overnight will only drop a few degrees from current readings, except outside the wedge. Most will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s overnight. Clouds are expected to linger through most of the day Thursday but some sunshine will peek in at times in the afternoon to allow temperatures to rise into the 70s for most. Should have enough instability to allow for some thunder tomorrow but main focus of organized storms will be closer to the front and upper support from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-MS Valley. A few clusters of storms could reach southeast WV later in the afternoon with damaging winds possible. Forecast confidence is high on keeping clouds around and temps but lower on temps and storm chances Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 PM EDT Wednesday... 1) Very unusually warm this weekend 2) Small chance of showers later this week for northern counties With the warm front through and a surface high off the Carolina Coast, considerably warm and moist air will make itself at home. High temperatures by the weekend are expected to be at most 25 degrees above seasonal averages! Guidance shows high temperatures in the upper 70s / lower 80s with dew points in the upper 50s / lower 60s by Friday. While more storm systems are forecast for central and southern CONUS, most of these storms will travel around us thanks to the persistent surface high off the Carolinas. While there are some conditions for severe weather, notably a few hundred CAPE and 30-50 kt bulk shear, shortwaves that would provide a source of storm initiation will veer around the region. If the surface high meanders more easterly or southerly it is possible that the northern counties could be grazed by these systems and bring some precipitation with them during this weekend. Precipitation amounts will likely be between 0.01-0.10 inches if this comes into fruition. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are likely to persist for the entirety of this portion of the forecast period. Finally, winds are expected to pick up a little by the weekend thanks to a modest pressure gradient over the area. Wind gusts, especially at highest elevations, may reach 20-25 mph. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 210 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: 1) A chance of storms Sunday 2) Colder Air Returns Next Week A cold front will move through as early as Sunday morning and force another chance of region wide thunderstorms. With an already moist and warm environment, precipitation is likely but the severity is in question. Some severe weather parameters are in sync such as a few hundred CAPE and a right entrance upper level jet over the area to assist with rising air. The SPC has not included the region in its Day 5 outlook due to lack of confidence in buoyancy but did mention the Mid-Atlantic in its discussion. Model guidance, however, suggests bulk wind shear of 80-100 kts which may wreck any storms that develop. This system will be monitored closely. The main takeaway for this part of the forecast is that the second cold front has a large cold air mass that follows it and temperatures and dew points region wide will tank. Winds that accompany the front will bring sustained winds of 10-15 mph with gusts of 20-30 mph along and west of the Blue Ridge. Because of the wind, wind chill values for early mornings next-week could be in the 20s and teens, especially for areas along and east of the Blue Ridge. The air mass, however, will be notably drier and stable which will pull the plug on any future severe or generic thunderstorm systems for the rest of the forecast period. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Wednesday... Sub-VFR cigs/vsbys will be prevalent along/east of the Alleghany front through Thu morning with patchy drizzle/light rain. Vsbys at times may drop to 2 to statute miles, especially at ROA/BCB, with cigs below 1kft. LWB will also sink to sub-MVFR by tonight but should improve to VFR by late Thu morning as southwest winds mix out the lower clouds. BLF could be on the edge of sub-VFR cigs and will lean toward this but at times, BLF could scatter out especially this afternoon on the edge of the stable layer. Showers/storms through the period will mainly stay further northwest across the Ohio Valley, though a few may slide toward LWB Thu morning. Southeast winds will be gusty at BLF this afternoon, then once wedge starts eroding Thursday most sites will start to see gusts in the 18-22kts range, though may take til after 18z Thursday to have improvements at BCB/ROA/LYH/DAN above 1kft, but vsbys should go back above 6 miles between 12-15z. Low level wind shear will also arrive from the west thanks to strong low level jet with stable surface layer. This will mainly occur from BCB west to BLF/LWB from 02z-12z. .EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Look for improving conditions Thursday afternoon as warmer air and gusty southwest winds bring VFR back. A frontal boundary at times will keep shower/storm chances around into the weekend until the main front arrives Sunday. Overall should be VFR, but cannot rule out some sub-VFR cigs at night and with any shower/storms. Behind the system early next week should be VFR except some lingering MVFR cigs in the mountains. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM/WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...CG LONG TERM...CG AVIATION...PM/WP