016
FXUS61 KRNK 061351
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
951 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures look to continue today. Cold front
will slowly progress east through Monday morning. Strong to
severe storms are possible this afternoon, along with heavy
rainfall through Monday morning. Much colder airmass arrives
Tuesday, and overnight lows below freezing will be possible by
the middle of the week. Next chance for rain arrives Thursday
night into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EDT Sunday...

Adjustments in the temperatures were made given the temperature
drop for areas mainly west of the Blue Ridge from the line of
moderate to heavy showers that pushed through the area early
this morning. With thick cloud cover across these areas,
temperatures will likely not warm up quite as much as initially
forecasted for these areas. PoPs were not adjusted as more rain
is expected to push into the region later today.

Previous Discussion:

Key Messages:

1) Potentially strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening.

2) Rain could be heavy at times, resulting in areas of flooding
through tonight.

Upper level ridging will continue to drift east into the
Atlantic today to allow for slow eastward progression of a cold
front currently situated across the Tennessee Valley. Light
showers will increase across the mountains this morning as
the front gradually moves east. An anomalously warm airmass
remains in place over the southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic,
and strong southerly flow will only continue to enhance moisture
in advance of the slow-moving frontal boundary.

Still some uncertainty to the degree of clearing that occurs
today, which will in turn, determine how much instability is
realized. Morning rain already approaching the western
mountains is beginning to lead to higher confidence that areas
along and west of the Blue Ridge will struggle to destabilize
today. However, guidance is honing in on locations east of the
Blue Ridge in regards to thunderstorm development, especially if
this region can see any breaks in the clouds. If storms
develop, they will have the potential for strong damaging winds,
mainly early this afternoon through late evening. With loss of
any daytime heating, storms should weaken by sunset, but a heavy
rain threat will continue into the overnight hours. Slow-moving
frontal boundary, along with very high ambient moisture will
result in the potential for heavy rain training over the same
areas, which could lead to instances of flash flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Rain lingers east of the Blue Ridge through Monday evening before
clearing out.

2) Light snow showers possible in the West Virginia mountains on
Monday night.

3) Below average temperatures through midweek.

Showers will still be across the area Monday morning, though mainly
east of the Blue Ridge, as the front continues to slowly move east.
By early afternoon, areas west of the Blue Ridge will see rain
mostly come to an end, but the Piedmont will continue to see showers
and even a few thunderstorms throughout the day, as the front
briefly slows down. Eventually, a secondary cold front and
associated upper-level trough push the system off to the east Monday
night with rain coming to an end area-wide overnight. Rainfall
amounts have again changed from yesterday, with rain coverage
expected to be more scattered at times west of the Blue Ridge.
Despite this, high precipitable water values will mean that showers
will be heavy, accumulating to around 0.50-1.0" west of the Blue
Ridge, with 1.0-2.0"+ possible for the Piedmont where the front
lingers through Monday evening, resulting in higher rainfall totals.


The aforementioned second cold front will provide enough lift with
upslope northwest flow, to briefly allow snow showers for the
western facing slopes in WV, mainly Western Greenbrier County.
Little to no accumulation is expected due to warm ground
temperatures, but snow showers will be possible through daybreak
Tuesday before tapering off. The front quickly passes through, with
a reinforcing shot of cold air, which will cause temperatures to be
well below average through the period. High pressure from the
Midwest moves into the Mid-Atlantic, keeping quiet and dry
conditions across the entire RNK CWA through midweek.

High temperatures will be below average through the period, in the
50s/60s on Monday, but falling into the 40s/50s on Tuesday behind
the second cold front, with the highest elevations not getting out
of the 30s. By midweek, highs make it into the 50s area-wide. Low
temperatures will also be quite cold, in the 20s/30s. Winds will be
elevated Tuesday morning behind the front, with gusts of 20-30+ mph,
causing wind chills to be in the teens west of the Blue Ridge.
Western Greenbrier County will likely have wind chills in the single
digits.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Temperatures slowly return to just below normal late week.

2) Rain moves back into the area late Thursday, possibly lasting
into next weekend.

High pressure remains firmly in control over the Mid-Atlantic
through late Thursday, keeping convection suppressed. A clipper
system will then move down from the Great Lakes Region, bringing
rain showers back into the area for late Thursday into Friday. An
upper-level trough will assist in the redevelopment of the low to
our south, which will keep rainfall chances in the forecast through
early Saturday. Models differ on how amplified the trough will be,
and how strong the low becomes over our area, leading to a low
confidence forecast in timing and coverage of rainfall. Behind the
system, high pressure once again builds in, keeping quiet and dry
conditions through the end of the period.

Temperatures remain fairly consistent through the period, with highs
in the 50s/60s each day, and lows in the 30s/40s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 640 AM EDT Sunday...

Conditions will gradually deteriorate through the day from west
to east as a cold front pushes rain into the region. Afternoon
thunderstorms are possible at all terminals, but then periods of
rain continue through tonight, along with low cigs/vsby. Rain
could be heavy at times.

Winds will remain out of the southwest through the period. Winds
generally ranging between 6-12kts this morning with stronger
winds along ridgetops. Models have a 40-50 kts southwesterly jet
around 85H through early afternoon but only a factor of these
winds will mix down to the lower levels, but will create some
turbulence. Winds will increase ahead of the storms through this
afternoon, ranging between 10-15 kts with higher gusts
possible. Winds become less gusty again tonight.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Rain and sub-VFR continues into Monday morning. The wind should
become gusty from the northwest by Monday after the frontal
passage, and MVFR ceilings might linger across the mountains due
to the upslope flow. High pressure should bring drier and
colder air to allow VFR conditions for Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG/EB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...BMG